Lebanese vote shows demand for change. But enough to build on?
| LONDON
With a Lebanese flag draped over her shoulders, and optimism for political change filling her heart, Nisrine Hammoud joined hundreds of thousands of her fellow citizens on the streets during Lebanon鈥檚 鈥淥ctober Revolution鈥� in 2019.
鈥淲e feel like we are alive again,鈥� she told the Monitor late one night at Beirut鈥檚 Martyrs鈥� Square back then, as protesters demanded the toppling of a political class renowned for corruption, and a total uprooting of the entrenched sectarian system that was leading to state collapse.
An election was the 鈥渙nly chance鈥� to make such change, Ms. Hammoud said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 up to us. It鈥檚 up to the people to decide if they are going to go back to their old ways, or we are going to go forward.鈥�
Why We Wrote This
Changing an entrenched system requires energy. While some in Lebanon voted last week to break with the past, most still voted for sectarian parties, an indication of fear and fatigue.
That election finally came May 15, but with mixed results for activists like Ms. Hammoud. Pro-change candidates won a dozen or more of the 128 seats in Parliament, and Iran-backed Hezbollah and its allies lost their majority, dropping from 71 to 58 seats.
The result outstripped modest predictions for anti-establishment candidates, and so was lauded as a 鈥渂reakthrough鈥� by some Lebanese media. But it also showed the challenges of changing the country鈥檚 baked-in sectarian system at a time when people are worn down by the demands of survival.
Indeed, popular disgruntlement has grown even more widespread following the Beirut port explosion in August 2020, and the further disintegration of the economy and services that has now left more than 70% of Lebanese living below the poverty line.
The self-declared October Revolution and its street protests dissipated long ago, squelched by the COVID-19 pandemic, and then day-to-day preoccupations like coping with the lack of electricity, and chronic food and fuel shortages, activists say.
And yet, some 90% of those who voted last week still chose traditional sectarian parties, whose politicians 鈥� often political kingmakers for decades, who had emerged as warlords during Lebanon鈥檚 1975-1990 civil war 鈥� have brought the nation to this state of collapse.
鈥淭he results are somehow shocking, because it鈥檚 not just about people who voted for the wrong people 鈥� a lot of people just didn鈥檛 vote,鈥� says Ms. Hammoud, now in her mid-20s, about the low 49% turnout. 鈥淲e needed people to actually take action. And that election was our only ticket ... to vote for people who are really going to represent us.鈥�
A divided opposition
Though Lebanon鈥檚 chronic crises have caused deep despondency, analysts say, that did not translate into much support for change candidates, who were diverse and divided.
鈥淭hey literally undermined each other, so anybody who wanted to vote for change ... didn鈥檛 have an address to go to,鈥� says Maha Yahya, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut.
She notes that 11 separate lists of anti-establishment candidates competed against each other in the northern Sunni Muslim-majority city of Tripoli, one of Lebanon鈥檚 poorest. An analysis by the Lebanon Broadcasting Corporation International found that, had the opposition been unified nationwide, it likely would have doubled its seats in Parliament.
Still, the dozen or so seats that change candidates captured are nearly twice the number that many had predicted before election day.
鈥淭here is a shift and a change,鈥� says Dr. Yahya. 鈥淣ow, how profound, and whether this is the beginning of genuine change that we can build on. The question is, will we build on it?鈥�
Lebanon has been ruled for decades under a formula that shares seats of political power among parties linked to different religious groups, and citizens tend to vote along religious lines. 鈥淲inding this back is going to take a long time,鈥� she says.
鈥淚f you are scared that Hezbollah is going to attack you, you run and vote for [海角大神] Lebanese Forces, because you think they are the ones who will be able to stand up鈥� and protect you, Dr. Yahya explains. 鈥淵ou are not going to overhaul a system like the Lebanese one overnight.鈥�
The chief elections observer for the European Union, Gy枚rgy H枚lv茅nyi, said the elections were 鈥渙vershadowed by widespread practices of vote-buying and clientelism, which distorted the level playing field.鈥� Observers from the Lebanese Association for Democratic Elections recorded 3,600 鈥渇lagrant violations鈥� on election day, and said partisans of the two main Shiite parties, Hezbollah and Amal, attacked their observers.
The wrangling ahead
The impact of the vote will become clearer in the coming months. Parliament will first choose a new speaker 鈥� almost certain to be Amal leader Nabih Berri, who has held the post for 30 years already. Then it will face the much harder task of electing a government, whose top priority will be laws and changes required to comply with International Monetary Fund conditions for massive bailout funds.
鈥淭hat means you聽really聽want to have a seat at the table 鈥� the stakes are much higher,鈥� says Heiko Wimmen, a political analyst with the International Crisis Group in Beirut. Finding a win-win formula for all will be 鈥渆xtremely difficult,鈥� he predicts.
On paper, the new cadre of change MPs 鈥減otentially could be kingmakers, but that would require a cohesive parliamentary bloc鈥� and a common platform, which seems a distant prospect, Mr. Wimmen says.
He notes that an assumption made throughout Lebanon鈥檚 multiple crises has proved wrong. Many observers had believed that the situation for average Lebanese citizens would become so dire that the political elite would be compelled to change its behavior or risk a popular uprising.
In fact, politicians flaunt their wealth and power as brazenly as ever, and as people have grown more desperate and despondent, they 鈥渁re less able to organize any kind of resistance,鈥� Mr. Wimmen says.
Fatigued voters
And they are exhausted, Ms. Hammoud points out.
鈥淧eople have been so distracted by other things, like getting food on the table,鈥� she says. 鈥淔or the past two years we have just been struggling to fill up our cars with gas, to be able to buy bread. We stood in queues for hours just to get things done, and now we have this electricity problem, and the Lebanese lira keeps devaluing against the dollar.鈥�
Ms. Hammoud says that the anti-establishment candidates鈥� showing in last week鈥檚 elections feels to her like a pale reflection of the popular demand for change she felt on the street in 2019.
She knows she is in a minority, but she is not giving up.
Lebanon鈥檚 ruling warlord-politicians 鈥渟tole our money, they stole our parents鈥� pension funds, and we have no electricity because of them; we have [nothing] because of them,鈥� says Ms. Hammoud. Just keeping that reality in mind, she adds, 鈥渋s always our motivation, because that鈥檚 the only way you can wake people up.鈥�
