As Tunisia鈥檚 democracy wobbles, an unexpected gain: first woman premier
| Amman, Jordan and Tunis, Tunisia
It was always going to be an uphill climb for the Arab world鈥檚 first woman prime minister.
If a failing economy and a pandemic weren鈥檛 challenge enough, Tunisian Prime Minister Najla Romdhane has been appointed just as the Arab world鈥檚 lone democracy is at a critical crossroads: a broken political system and a constitutional crisis precipitated by an aloof president wielding near-absolute power.
Rather than a celebration of breaking the glass ceiling, Ms. Romdhane's unexpected political ascent听has taken on new meaning.
Why We Wrote This
Is there ever an odd time for progress? The symbolic victory embodied by Tunisia鈥檚 naming of a woman as prime minister comes amid a deepening battle over the quality of the nation鈥檚 democracy.
Her appointment has illustrated Tunisia鈥檚 uncertainty since President Kais Saied鈥檚 assumption of emergency powers in late July, teetering between hope for positive change and fears of a disastrous backslide into authoritarianism.
鈥淩ight now, all that matters is whether you are with or against Kais Saied, and that is not good for Tunisia itself. The whole political process has become Saied-centered,鈥� says Eya Jrad, assistant professor of security studies at the Tunis-based South Mediterranean University.
听
鈥淓ven the first woman prime minister is being scrutinized because she took on the task from Saied in a not-normal state of affairs.鈥�
A university lecturer in geology and manager of World Bank-funded projects at the Ministry of Higher Education, Ms. Romdhane was plucked from relative obscurity to head the government just last week.
Calling her appointment, 鈥渁n honor for Tunisia and a homage to Tunisian women,鈥� Mr. Saied said her government鈥檚 main task will be to 鈥減ut an end to the corruption and chaos that have spread throughout many state institutions.鈥�
The move came weeks after the United States, EU, and France pressured the populist elected president, who seized extra powers in an emergency measure on July 25, to name a government, reinstate parliament, and return Tunisia to a democracy. On Sept. 22, Mr. Saied听suspended the constitution, and all executive and legislative powers now lie with the president, who rules by decree and is 鈥渁ssisted by the head of the government.鈥�
Friendly face?
Yet it remains to be seen what, if any, influence Ms. Romdhane will have.
Some fear she will be little more than a friendly face for the West.
Ms. Romdhane has yet to give a speech or press interview, with Mr. Saied still dominating Tunisia鈥檚 airwaves 鈥� and garnering rave reviews.
Mr. Saied is continuing his outsider, rail-against-the-system campaign to crack down on corruption and bring political parties to account that catapulted him from obscurity to the presidency in the 2019 elections.
Citing the COVID-19 pandemic, Mr. Saied on July 25 triggered an article in the constitution allowing for 30-day emergency rule. He shuttered parliament with tanks and dismissed the government.
When he finally suspended the constitution altogether last month, he unraveled a post-revolution political system the political system adopted after the fall of Tunisia's dictator in 2011, a pivotal event in the Arab Spring. Under this system,听the president and a prime minister appointed by lawmakers shared executive powers.听
Yet widespread frustration among Tunisians with partisan deadlock, corruption, and leaders鈥� failure to improve their daily lives have translated into an outpouring of support for his consolidation of power.听
For many Tunisians, Mr. Saied is the savior of the country, not the destroyer of democracy.
鈥淚鈥檓 happy with what the President has done so far, at least I can trust him,鈥� says Jihane Rahali, an administrative assistant in Tunis, who says she grew tired of bickering MPs, political nepotism, and parties 鈥渓ooking after their own interests.鈥�
鈥淜ais Saied will improve the country step-by-step. I鈥檓 for the president to rule alone.鈥� She pauses, adding, 鈥渂ut he should also be democratic.鈥�
Popular mandate
Such expressions of support is why Mr. Saied has repeatedly told U.S. and EU officials that he has a popular mandate, if not a constitutional one, to push through reforms and combat corruption.
His claim is backed up by polling.
In late September, Tunis-based EMRHOD Consulting found that 79% of Tunisians approved of President Saied鈥檚 performance, slightly down from 82% in August.
A resounding 87% of those polled still support his July emergency measure; more than two-thirds, 69%, support his suspension of the constitution; and 68% considered Ms. Romdhane鈥檚 appointment a positive development.
In response to the question, 鈥淚f presidential elections were held tomorrow, who would you vote for?鈥� 71.2% named Kais Saied. The runner-up, at 21.5%, was, 鈥淚 don鈥檛 know.鈥�
But, cautions Columbia Global Centers Tunis director Youssef Cherif, 鈥渋t is not clear whether this reflects Saied鈥檚 popularity or the unpopularity of his opponents.鈥�
With the much-maligned parliament gone and his polarizing foil, the Islamist Ennahda party, neutralized, Mr. Saied is taking center-stage as the only actor in Tunisia 鈥� and with it, the responsibility to deliver.
Expectations are high.
Already this week, unemployed youths protested in Kaiouran and Tunis, calling on the president to give them jobs.
Should the president stumble or be slow to improve Tunisians鈥� daily lives going into winter, observers say the wave of frustration he has so expertly channeled may turn against him.
Economic pressures, too, are mounting.
Tunisia鈥檚 economy contracted 8.5% in 2020, and the private sector is only slowly re-opening after a devastating COVID-19 wave this summer. The Tunisian dinar is weakening, inflation is rising, and public debt has climbed to 88% of GDP raising fears Tunisia is rapidly approaching default.
Yet Mr. Saied has not given the economy urgency or focus, nor has he appointed economic advisers or hinted at a plan to get the country back on track. Negotiations have stalled with the IMF for a $4 billion bailout package designed to help Tunisia with its budget deficit and upcoming loan repayments.
Instead, he preaches that only a new constitution that jettisons the parliamentary system for a strong presidency can allow Tunisians to bypass political deadlock, root out corruption, and transform the country for the better.
United in opposition
It is unclear how long Tunisians鈥� patience will last.
鈥淭he constitution is not the Koran, it can be amended at any time, but now is not the right time to do it,鈥� says Hassib Abidi, an unemployed law school graduate and a Saied supporter who is optimistic, but increasingly 鈥渃oncerned.鈥�
鈥淭he president hasn鈥檛 even started working on the economy,鈥� says Mr. Abidi. 鈥淚n the last two months, the economy didn鈥檛 take a single step forward. I am not satisfied because the real [issues] are not being addressed.鈥�
Amid the waiting, Mr. Saied is amassing a growing list of enemies among Tunisia's political elite. These include leftists, secularists, civil society advocates, Islamists, former supporters of the deposed dictatorship, the business community, and unionists.听
鈥淲e remain confused because we have been waiting so long for the next steps and are concerned that the country can鈥檛 stand in a political vacuum and survive without a parliament or public institutions,鈥� says Mounir Charfi of the Tunisian Observatory to Defend the Civil State.
The powerful trade unions, which helped oust Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali a decade ago, reversed their initial support of Mr. Saied鈥檚 measures, calling his suspension of the constitution a 鈥渄anger to democracy.鈥� Once-bickering parties are uniting to pressure the president.
鈥淲e thought that by triggering Article 80 of the constitution, the president would hold accountable everyone who committed wrongdoings and acts of corruption,鈥� says Iheb Ghariani, co-founder of the Democratic Current, a liberal political bloc that backed Mr. Saied before allying with three other opposition groups last week.
鈥淚nstead, the president wants to impose his vision onto the political system. ... He is wielding absolute power and he is rejecting dialogue with everyone.鈥�
Tweaking democracy
Mr. Saied appears set on drafting a new constitution largely by himself and putting it up for a national referendum while his popularity is still sky-high.
Yet the prospect of another new constitution, and a struggle over a more centralized political system, may, observers say, be a positive opportunity for Tunisians to make democracy work better for the people.
鈥淩ather than the saving of Tunisia鈥檚 democracy or the end of it, this may be something in between,鈥� says Mr. Cherif.听
鈥淭his may be a case where democracy has revealed where it doesn鈥檛 work and if this is a real democracy 鈥� then it will correct itself through street movements, through civil society, through dialogue, and economic and political actors expressing their voices on and off the street.鈥�
Mr. Saied, meanwhile, is boasting about the size of his rallies. He said 1.8 million supporters turned out in Tunis and outlying towns last Sunday (15% of the population), while Reuters reported it was more like 8,000.
On Tuesday he released a video of himself and Ms. Romdhane in which he touted the turnout. She didn鈥檛 get a word in.
