Afghanistan鈥檚 stalemate: 鈥榯alking and fighting鈥�
| Kabul, Afghanistan
Gray bearded and devout, Mohammad Waqif was the breadwinner. His salary working for the relief agency CARE fed and educated his entire family for 22 years.
And he was the driver. His devotion to his job took him on every road in Afghanistan, where he survived 20 lives鈥� worth of close calls, his family says.
Yet finally he was the victim, for whom peace in Afghanistan did not come soon enough.
Why We Wrote This
In Afghanistan, escalation on both sides calls into question the sincerity of peace talks even as it reinforces their imperative. 鈥楶eace should come at whatever price,鈥� the emotional brother of a Taliban victim told our reporter.
Mr. Waqif was killed by a Taliban suicide car bomb May 8 in Kabul, even as the latest round of U.S.-led peace talks with the Islamist insurgents in Doha, Qatar 鈥撎齱hich once gave a flash of hope that America鈥檚 longest war might soon end 鈥撎齜egan to flail.
The Taliban attack was carried out amid a broader spring offensive 鈥� and an Afghan government and U.S. military counteroffensive 鈥� in which all sides are escalating violence even as they talk about peace. How long that dual dynamic can hold without demonstrable progress toward ending the war is not clear.
鈥淲hen I saw this, I could not control my tears,鈥� says Mr. Waqif鈥檚 brother, Abdul Batin Ghafoori, as he describes the blast scene of a dozen burnt cars and collecting the remains of his brother 鈥� one of at least nine Afghans killed in the attack in the first days of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.
The Taliban target was the heavily fortified office of Counterpart International, an American firm that implements U.S. government-funded civil society programs. The Taliban accused it of 鈥渙ppression, terror, anti-Islamic ideology鈥� and of promoting Western culture, which it said included men and women intermingling.
But across the street was CARE, which lost three staff members and has been doing humanitarian work in Afghanistan since 1961.
鈥榃ar should end鈥�
Choking up at the memory of his brother, Mr. Ghafoori voices the victim鈥檚 lament, common here after 40 years of almost continuous conflict: 鈥淲e can鈥檛 say anything; we can鈥檛 do anything,鈥� he says.
鈥淭he war should end. Peace should come at whatever price,鈥� says Mr. Ghafoori. As his brother鈥檚 name is added to the seemingly endless list of Afghanistan鈥檚 war dead, he notes the irony that, whether war lasts 20 years or 40, 鈥渋n the end you will sit and talk, make a solution, and make peace.鈥�
Yet every aspect of that peace remains elusive, and the sixth round of talks between Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. special representative for Afghanistan reconciliation, and the Taliban appeared to end prematurely after the Taliban claimed the Kabul attack.
听
Talks were 鈥済etting into the 鈥榥itty gritty.鈥� The devil is always in the details,鈥� Ambassador Khalilzad tweeted May 9, announcing the end of the round on the day after the Taliban attack.
鈥淭he current pace of talks isn鈥檛 sufficient when so much conflict rages and innocent people die,鈥� said Mr. Khalilzad. 鈥淲e need more and faster progress.鈥�
Western officials here say four days were spent discussing what title the Taliban would assume under any deal. And the Taliban refuse to speak to the Afghan government of President Ashraf Ghani, which they describe as a U.S. 鈥減uppet,鈥� or to consider a cease-fire.
President Donald Trump has stated his desire to quickly end America鈥檚 more than 17-year military role in the Afghan war, and bring home the remaining 14,000 U.S. troops. Months ago, the United States announced it had agreed on a 鈥渇ramework鈥� with the Taliban: withdrawal of U.S. forces in return for the Taliban preventing jihadists operating on Afghan soil.
The Pentagon reportedly floated a plan in January that would have seen half the U.S. troops depart within months, more than rolling back a surge of 3,900 troops that Mr. Trump authorized in mid-2017. The plan called for a full withdrawal within three to five years.
Yet the Taliban attack May 8 showed that 鈥渟poilers鈥� abound, says Masood Karokhail, head of The Liaison Office (TLO), a Kabul-based group that facilitates peace and rebuilding efforts.
鈥淭he attack on Counterpart, while parallel to the ongoing talks, was not a good sign [and shows] that peace is not as close as we think,鈥� says Mr. Karokhail. 鈥淎lso for the U.S. 鈥� which wanted very fast results 鈥� it鈥檚 not going to be as fast as they want.鈥�
Mr. Khalilzad shifted the Afghan war narrative from 鈥渟talemate鈥� to 鈥減eace talks,鈥� he says. But a peace deal may not end the fighting, with hazards including fractures within the Taliban and an estimated two dozen other armed groups in Afghanistan.
鈥楾alking and fighting鈥�
The Taliban have been fielding a high-level delegation in Qatar, headed by the group鈥檚 co-founder, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar.
鈥淪o a peace deal in Qatar may reduce violence in Afghanistan for a while,鈥� adds Mr. Karokhail. 鈥淏ut the question is, how do we sustain that so it doesn鈥檛 jump back because of unemployment, because of ungoverned spaces, because of elements unhappy with the peace deal who feel they鈥檝e been betrayed?鈥�
Both sides have been preparing and engaging in military escalation for months.
鈥淟ike the Americans, they [the Taliban] are talking and fighting,鈥� says a Western official in Kabul who asked not to be named. 鈥淭he Americans seem to think they can only fight and talk, and that the Taliban are supposed to sit home and wait for things to happen.鈥�
U.S. troops have been stepping up their house and night raids, and targeting Taliban commanders and fighters, says the official. Yet the Taliban have been measured in their response. They did not target the loya jirga for 3,200 people convened by Mr. Ghani in early May to discuss peace options, which called for an 鈥渋mmediate and permanent cease-fire鈥� to start during Ramadan, and a gradual withdrawal of foreign troops.
Rejecting the loya jirga鈥檚 call for a cease-fire, the Taliban said that waging holy war during the month of Ramadan had 鈥渆ven more [holy] rewards.鈥� 听听
Still, the attack on Counterpart was more 鈥渇or show,鈥� with a big explosion but limited casualties, says the Western official. 鈥淭hey did not go for the big civilian casualty count,鈥� says the official. 鈥淭hey didn鈥檛 go from room to room shooting people in the head [as] we鈥檝e seen before.鈥�
鈥淎t the same time, the government needs to be under pressure, too, because Ghani鈥檚 been known to drag out any progress on peace,鈥� says the official. 鈥淪o the Taliban are saying, 鈥楬ello, we are still here.鈥欌��
One result is that the Taliban are negotiating from a position of strength, as if they are a government-in-waiting.
鈥淭he Taliban have a very consistent narrative: 鈥榃e are stronger than the government,鈥欌�� says a senior Afghan government official who asked not to be further identified. 鈥淭hey have a lot of rational arguments behind it ... because they are out in the field, they have been killing Americans, and [killing] hundreds of Afghan National Army, and they have access to more area than before.鈥�
Yet on the side of the government, which has been marred by widespread corruption, and by Mr. Ghani鈥檚 own admission that 45,000 Afghan security force members have lost their lives since his tenure began in 2014, there is little to engender hope or exemplify strength.
鈥淩ight now we have nothing, actually,鈥� says the senior official. 鈥淒o we have political stability? No. Do we have security? No. Do we have investments coming? No. Do we have zero civilian casualties? No, we have tons.鈥�
Commitment to peace?
Yet even if the Taliban exude strength at the negotiating table, some Afghans question the Taliban readiness for peace.
They also question the Taliban鈥檚 claim to have evolved, in which they say they now embrace women鈥檚 education and inclusive politics, in stark contrast to how they ruled Afghanistan in the late 1990s. The United Nations children鈥檚 fund UNICEF today, for example, reported that attacks on schools rose to 192 in 2018, nearly a threefold increase over 2017.听
鈥淚 hear people say the Taliban have changed,鈥� says Abubakar Gharzai, who works in broadcasting in Kabul. 鈥淲hat did you see to make that assumption? It鈥檚 like those rumors that spread in the Middle Ages, that a woman is a witch.鈥�
鈥淚 can鈥檛 believe people ... believe what the Taliban are saying with their mouth, while they are blowing people into pieces,鈥� says Mr. Gharzai.
Simultaneously talking peace and fighting to maximize leverage is understandable, but also a source of anxiety when so little is known about the state of the peace talks 鈥撎齩r even their aim, says Orzala Nemat, director of the Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit, a think tank in Kabul.
鈥淲hat is the final outcome? The concern is that so far we have nothing; we have literally nothing,鈥� says Ms. Nemat. 鈥淲e are getting closer to what? To peace? No. To withdrawal of the troops, which is their [Taliban] demand? No, we don鈥檛 see any sign of that, either.鈥�
鈥淭he whole vagueness of the situation is playing into the hands of forces 鈥撎齢ere I would generalize it 鈥撎齱ho have an interest to keep up the war,鈥� says Ms. Nemat. 鈥淏ecause otherwise why, in the midst of making progress, according to themselves, why suddenly is this blow happening? [Why the] escalation of attacks against the Taliban, and escalation of Taliban reaction?
鈥淣o side is de-escalating,鈥� she says. 鈥淏oth sides are at high speed.鈥�
