Turkey ruling party鈥檚 recipe for election trouble: too much Erdo臒an
| LONDON AND ISTANBUL
When the Turkish electrician, a longtime supporter of President Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an鈥檚 party, backed the opposition Sunday in Istanbul, his vote was cast without joy, and with little expectation of change.
Instead, it contributed to a watershed moment in Turkish politics, a major setback for Mr. Erdo臒an and his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) in municipal elections nationwide that the president had declared critical to Turkey鈥檚 survival.
For the first time in a quarter century, the opposition seized control of both Turkey鈥檚 political capital, Ankara, and 鈥� by the slimmest of margins, in a result now being challenged by the AKP 鈥� its commercial center, Istanbul, where Mr. Erdo臒an once was mayor.
Why We Wrote This
Politics rewards confidence, and punishes overconfidence. As President Erdo臒an ran around Turkey to bolster his party in municipal elections, his previously tried-and-true divisive rhetoric proved alienating.
While the AKP claimed victory at a national level, analysts said the election results were the first indication the ruling party鈥檚聽veneer of invincibility is giving way, and that its聽days in power may be numbered. But for Mr. Erdo臒an, they said, who campaigned relentlessly with a schedule of more than 100 rallies, the result represented a personal failure.
The rallies were marked by divisive and incendiary rhetoric in which Mr. Erdo臒an labeled opponents as 鈥渢errorists,鈥� threatened them with prosecution, and blamed 鈥渆nemies鈥� in the West for Turkey鈥檚 economic malaise, giving the Istanbuli electrician every reason to vote against him.
The turn away from the AKP by this small shop owner, Yilmaz 鈥撀爓ho once actively campaigned for the Islamist-leaning party, but today refuses even to give his full name for fear of retribution 鈥撀爄s emblematic of the broader disillusion with Mr. Erdo臒an鈥檚 combative and authoritarian style as well as the tanking economy, as shown in the election results.
鈥淥nce you call people traitors, people 鈥� even AK Party folks 鈥� get alienated,鈥� Yilmaz says on the day after the vote, as a toaster is brought in for repair.
鈥淣ow there鈥檚 competition [that鈥檚] going to be good for everyone,鈥� says the electrician, who during the campaign told the Monitor he did not see enough prospects for his own future to get married and have children.
鈥淭hey antagonized everybody,鈥� adds Yilmaz, whose father and grandfather supported the AKP and its Islamist antecedent, Welfare. 鈥淣ow the AK Party is going to have to step back and regain its footing. It needs to change.鈥�
As unofficial results were announced, the candidate of Turkey鈥檚 main opposition Republican People鈥檚 Party (CHP), Ekrem 陌mamo臒lu, changed his Twitter handle to read 鈥淢ayor of Istanbul.鈥� But at dawn on Monday, AKP banners also sprung up in the city with the words 鈥淭hank you Istanbul,鈥� above pictures of Mr.聽Erdo臒an and the AKP鈥檚 mayoral candidate, former Prime Minister Binali Y谋ld谋r谋m, as if victory was theirs.
Despite the headline-grabbing losses, the AKP remains the most popular political party in Turkey, winning, with its nationalist coalition ally, 51.6 percent of the vote overall. On top of that, Mr. Erdo臒an rules until 2023 with expanded executive powers that came into effect with a presidential vote last year.
But the Turkish economy entered recession in March, after years of exceptional growth since the AKP came to power in 2002. Among a host of economic concerns, the currency has lost one-third of its value in the past year, unemployment is high, and inflation hovers around 20 percent.
Mr. Erdo臒an 鈥渢urned it into a referendum, he made a strategic error by marrying these elections to himself,鈥� says Henri Barkey, a Turkey expert at Lehigh University in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, adding that Turkish voters aren鈥檛 buying the president鈥檚 rhetoric anymore.
鈥淗ad he stayed on the sidelines the results might have been different. He wouldn鈥檛 have galvanized the opposition so much,鈥� says Mr. Barkey. 鈥淪o this is a slap at Erdo臒an. Erdo臒an is the big loser here.... People voted against him.
鈥淎t this stage, his big worry is that people will see him as a diminished figure,鈥� says Mr. Barkey. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 why I don鈥檛 expect him to mellow.鈥� The president and his party, he adds, have 鈥済one too far down this road of traitors and evil-doers and all this, to suddenly say, 鈥榃e are going to cooperate with them, we are going to accept this.鈥� 鈥�
Erdo臒an sees fault, not defeat
Indeed, in a midnight speech addressing supporters on election night, Mr. Erdo臒an didn鈥檛 accept defeat. He said instead that 鈥渙ur nation鈥� had given the AKP the highest number of votes in the 15th election in a row, and that it would control 56 percent of Turkey鈥檚 municipalities.
But Mr. Erdo臒an also struck a more humble tone when he admitted, without mentioning Istanbul or Ankara, that the 鈥渟ole reason鈥� for any poor results was 鈥渙ur having been unable to explain ourselves sufficiently to our people [and] having been unable to enter their hearts sufficiently.鈥�
That was despite addressing rallies in 59 provinces and 43 districts and on nine television programs, he noted, all of them promoted ubiquitously by pro-AKP media.
鈥淲e can鈥檛 seek out [fault] in our nation, we must seek it out in ourselves,鈥� said Mr. Erdo臒an. Starting the next morning, he vowed, 鈥渨e will set to work identifying and addressing our shortcomings.鈥�
An adviser to the president, Saadet Oru莽, was less sanguine. 鈥淪ometimes storms are a good thing,鈥� she was quoted as saying in the opposition Cumhuriyet newspaper. 鈥淵our boat is a bit worn out, rocking from side to side, but afterwards there is no scum on deck.鈥�
But that may not change the eventual historical verdict, that this election result marks the beginning of a transition away from Erdo臒an-AKP dominance, says Sinan 脺lgen, a Turkey expert and former Turkish diplomat with Carnegie Europe.
鈥淲ith hindsight, we will read it as the first real sign of that decline, because fundamentally what needs to happen to stop this decline is for Turkey to generate a new positive narrative about itself, which would need to be led by an economic upturn,鈥� says Mr. 脺lgen.
The current political context 鈥渄oes not really give much optimism鈥� for such a turnaround, says Mr. 脺lgen, and without regeneration 鈥渋t鈥檚 going to be a downward trend for the ruling party.鈥�
Istanbul鈥檚 symbolism
The loss of Istanbul is especially symbolic for the AKP, since it was the place that Erdo臒an cut his political teeth, starting in 1994 as mayor, and where the AKP devised its program.
鈥淭his will certainly appear as a weakening of Erdo臒an鈥檚 rule, both internally and externally,鈥� adds Mr. 脺lgen. That鈥檚 because the opposition now control cities that generate some 70 percent of Turkey鈥檚 GDP, and 鈥渢hat鈥檚 where political and economic influence stems from.鈥�
Turkey鈥檚 pro-AKP media put a brave spin on the results, suggesting that winning 778 municipalities is a 鈥渞ecord that will be hard to beat.鈥�
On the streets, there was still surprise 鈥撀爀ven from longtime supporters of the opposition.
鈥淚 thought the AKP was going to win again, clear and certain,鈥� says a tea shop owner named Fatih. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e just going to win it back in the next election. Nothing鈥檚 going to change; the vote was just a reaction.鈥�
A customer arrives, orders a sandwich, and complains about the price. Fatih dismisses the complaint by listing the rising price of tomatoes and cheese.
鈥淚 hope it鈥檚 all for the best for the country and the people; AKP will [be forced] to put itself in order,鈥� says Fatih.
The opposition are a minority, he says, but there are signs that this time the AKP knew it had been beaten.
鈥淎fter every election, they [AKP supporters] come by and make fun of us鈥� for losing, says Fatih. 鈥淭oday there was none of that. Just silence.鈥�
Two Monitor researchers contributed reporting from Istanbul.
