As Iran鈥檚 revolution turns 40, a consensus: Things must change
| LONDON
Recirculating more and more these days, as Iranians assess both the sweet and bitter fruit of 40 years of Islamic Revolution, is a video taken on the plane carrying Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1979.
He is about to end years of exile and touch down in Tehran.
Known by his followers as bot shekan, the 鈥渋dol smasher,鈥� Mr. Khomeini was about to sweep away 2,500 years of monarchy in Iran 鈥撀燼nd a shah who was a staunch American, Israeli, and Western ally.
Why We Wrote This
Can the Islamic Revolution reform itself? What was once unlikely now seems inevitable as the regime weighs its failures and successes and pushes to reinvigorate flagging support among Iranians.
Khomeini aimed to install instead an Islamic Republic that promised justice, prosperity, and a popular 鈥済overnment of God鈥� that would virulently oppose the United States and Israel.
Today it is clear that Utopia never arrived: The Islamic Republic reels from an ever-growing gap between rich and poor and wide social divisions. It is afflicted by corruption, an economy crippled by US sanctions, and vicious political infighting that has left many Iranians bereft of hope about their future 鈥� and believing that the revolution has failed to fulfill its promises.
But on that day four decades ago, as Khomeini was airborne, millions of Iranians awaited their savior, at the airport and in turmoil across the capital. Street fights would escalate between revolutionaries and shah loyalists until a 鈥済lorious victory鈥� was declared on Feb. 11, 1979.
In the video the ayatollah, on the plane in a window seat and wearing a stern look and black turban, is asked what his feelings are.
鈥淣othing,鈥� said Khomeini, whose revolution still rocks global politics after four decades. And then he repeated, 鈥淣othing.鈥�
Today hundreds of thousands of Iranians braved snow and freezing rain to march across the country to mark the 40th anniversary of a revolution that raised expectations but has had bittersweet results. For many Iranians, the official triumphalism masks a moment of deep uncertainty, of disillusion and hopelessness that pervades their lives.
鈥淎fter 40 years, the Islamic Republic has no similarity to its past,鈥� says a political analyst and Tehran resident who asked not to be named. 鈥淚t is a corrupted government鈥�. It has some cover of religion, but is not religious. No justice. [There is] nothing [achieved] about the goals that the revolution had:聽justice, equality, participation of all the people. Nothing.鈥�
One result is a reckoning that looked as unlikely in 1979 as it looks inevitable today about what steps Iran鈥檚 leaders can take to reform and reinvigorate the revolution. Iran鈥檚 supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, for example, last week set a four-month deadline to restructure the budget system. Yet聽corruption has never been systematically taken on, and Iran鈥檚 parallel intelligence arms often work at odds with each other, trying to unmask 鈥渋nfiltrators鈥� and spies.
A turning point
But much more is at stake as Iranians watch their currency shrivel in value and ask whether the return on a generation-long investment in revolution 鈥� including perennial anti-Americanism 鈥� has been worth the high cost.
鈥淚t鈥檚 a turning point in the Islamic Republic, because it鈥檚 the first time that the majority of people don鈥檛 like them,鈥� says the analyst, citing economic protests that last year hit small towns and villages, where regime support has long been a given. 鈥淭he Islamic Republic was not a likable government all the time, but it was tolerable and something we could bargain with. It brought stability, and we voted for them. All participation gave them a guarantee to stay and have stability, and they could say, 鈥榃e have the people鈥檚 support.鈥� 鈥�
鈥淏ut now they don鈥檛 have it, and they do understand that,鈥� says the analyst. 鈥淚t鈥檚 quite a danger for the Islamic Republic, such a gap [with] people, between state and society.鈥�
Still, the annual celebration has barely changed and today, as聽in the past, attracted Iranians from across the social spectrum, including a number of Westernized youth among the legions of more conservative and religious devotees. Anti-US and anti-Israel posters were held aloft, and flags were torched. Martyrs of the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s were venerated, and devotees with loudspeakers led chants of 鈥淒eath to America!鈥�
At the 29th anniversary, a Monitor reporter watched an anti-American effigy contest, in which grim depictions of Uncle Sam vied to win a gold coin prize. And at the 35th birthday party, children took part in building waist-high toy Styrofoam centrifuges, used to enrich uranium, in a competition dubbed 鈥淣uclear scientists of the next generation.鈥�
Yet now the Khomeini 鈥渘othing鈥� video is being recirculated by regime opponents to suggest that Iran鈥檚 most famous personality of the last century 鈥撀燼nd the revolution he fomented 鈥� cared little for the welfare of Iran鈥檚 people.
鈥淚f we had any wisdom, we should have understood from that very 鈥榥othing鈥� answer what was lying ahead for us,鈥� one critic tweeted. 鈥淎las, we were deaf and blind.鈥�
Indeed, the Revolution raised unrealistic expectations. Khomeini himself, speaking shortly after his plane touched down on Feb. 1, 1979, told Iranians that 鈥渋n addition to providing you a rich, satisfying life鈥� 鈥� complete with a new home, free utilities, and free bus rides, he said 鈥撀犫�渨e will exalt your souls.鈥�
But such spiritual purity appears to be a rare commodity nowadays. Instead, this year most senior officials 鈥� aware that the periodic economic protests in 2018 were more widespread than ever and often targeted the leadership 鈥撀爐empered their enthusiasm.
Amid reports of shortages, price rises, and rationing of red meat, for instance, President Hassan Rouhani in recent days said Iran is 鈥渇acing the biggest pressure and economic sanctions in the past 40 years.鈥� He asked Iranians not to blame his 鈥渄utiful鈥� government.
The cost of corruption
But many blame chronic incompetence and mismanagement, and have done so on this day for years.
鈥淗appy? Are you kidding me? Of course not,鈥� says Amir, a 30-something driver for Tehran鈥檚 鈥淪nap鈥� online taxi service. Five years ago he had his own small business renting luxury cars for ceremonies and weddings.
鈥淭he worst thing about this revolution has been the lack of the rule of law. Officials circumvent their own laws, and this has gone down to all levels of the public,鈥� he says.
His business 鈥渢urned upside down,鈥� and he now struggles to make ends meet. 鈥淵ou don鈥檛 have any economic security because of the corruption. I have no future,鈥澛爃e adds.
That problem echoes widely, and not just on the streets.
鈥淥ur politicians are problem-creators rather than problem-solvers,鈥� said conservative analyst Amir Mohebian in a late-January interview with the Iranian newspaper Arman. 鈥淭he government should keep in mind that protests from the lower class have every potential to turn radical.鈥�
Despite such views, Mr. Khamenei sought to reinforce the pillars of the revolution in a speech Friday, saying the nation鈥檚 鈥渕assive presence鈥� on the streets 鈥渟cares and breaks the enemy [as] an embodiment of national resolve and unity.鈥�
鈥淒eath to the USA!鈥� chants did not mean an end to the American nation, he clarified, but death to its rulers. He named President Trump and others.
Yet, according to reformist analyst Sadegh Zibakalam, that anti-imperialism campaign has 鈥渟erved as a poison and inflicted the biggest harm upon the Islamic Republic,鈥� since the original discourse of the revolution 鈥渨as about freedom and democracy.鈥�
鈥淚f you force our radical and hard-line revolutionary people into not using the name 鈥楢merica鈥� in their speeches, they will have nothing to say,鈥� Mr. Zibakalam said in a public debate last December. 鈥淭hey have been hiding behind this for 40 years, refusing to address the fundamental issues.鈥�
鈥楢t least we have security鈥�
Still, for some Iranians, the revolutionary glass remains half full.
鈥淚鈥檓 happy because at least we have security,鈥� says Haj Esmaeel Malayeri, a rich, religious, and bearded businessman in his late 60s in west Tehran.
鈥淚t鈥檚 not Utopia, I know. But take a look around. All our neighbors are in misery and instability,鈥� he says. 鈥淟et鈥檚 be fair. This revolution has been facing pressure from almost all world powers, but it has managed to survive, and that鈥檚 enough to make us feel happy.鈥�
But perceptions of inequality are exacting a high price.
鈥淭here is a sense of failure in many things, especially this huge gap between rich and poor,鈥� says a veteran observer in Tehran who asked not to be named. Indeed, social media posts showed some marchers today carrying signs with the slogans 鈥淣o to embezzlement,鈥� and聽鈥淣o to aghazadehs,鈥� the derogatory term for the well-connected, rich, and ostentatious offspring of the elite.
For most Iranians, life has improved 鈥渧ery much鈥� since 1979 in terms of education, health, roads, and communication, the observer says, but adds that a majority of ordinary Iranians sympathized with the 2018 protests, even if they did not participate.
鈥淢aybe this is a lesson to learn that riots aren鈥檛 the way out,鈥� he says. 鈥淏ut what is the way out? Nobody has the answer. So that adds to the feeling of frustration that nothing is getting better.鈥�
One solution may lie in accountability for corruption, suggests the reformist newspaper Ghanoon. An article last week called for an end to luxurious displays in front of fellow Iranians 鈥渨ho have no bread to eat.鈥�
鈥淚sn鈥檛 it better 鈥� to bring to justice all those institutions which are tasked with auditing and supervision and ask them why they were fast asleep this whole time?鈥� asked the newspaper. 鈥淭he monarchical lifestyle keeps parading itself before the eyes of our common people in the form of fancy cars with arrogant drivers who break the hearts of the needy.鈥�
But politics still trumps the economy in revolutionary Iran.
鈥淭here are certain people in our country who insist on extremism,鈥� the reformist lawmaker Mahmoud Sadeghi railed last week. 鈥淲e have to be worried about what the hard-liners have in store for the future of our country.鈥�
