Syrian civil war, on Israel's doorstep, brings swirl of changing attitudes
| HAZAKA OBSERVATION POINT, Golan Heights
About half a mile from Israeli-held territory, in a Syrian village聽on the edge of a聽yellowed valley, a smattering of tents can be seen, some pitched in a grove of trees, others spilling out from the yards of box-shaped houses.
Living in them are Syrians who fled a punishing military assault by their own government as it tries聽to quash an anti-regime rebellion 鈥� now in its eighth year 鈥� once and for all.
Further along the border, which has separated Israeli and Syrian forces for decades in this fortified former war zone, larger encampments can be seen, with hundreds of tents and trailer homes.
Why We Wrote This
Wars bring horror, and Syria鈥檚 war is no exception. But in the desperate fight for survival, myths can be smashed, and that sets the stage for sometimes surprising changes in thinking.
The presence of these internally displaced Syrians, under the gaze of Israeli army watchtowers and bases, is both visually striking and an indication of an at least temporary change in attitude among Syrians. An聽estimated 10,000 to 12,000 have fled here, to Israel鈥檚 doorstep.
鈥淲e decided the safest place to be was the Israeli border,鈥� said one of them, a 29-year-old teacher named Mohammed. He聽made the journey to the border village of Al Briqa after聽his hometown of Daraa 鈥� a rebel stronghold where the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad began in 2011 鈥� came under heavy attack from Syrian ground forces and Russian warplanes in late June.
On Friday the first cease-fire deals were struck between Syria and rebels in the Daraa region, reportedly prompting some civilians to return home. The government鈥檚 assault sent an estimated 300,000 people fleeing their homes, many thronging toward Jordan as well as the Israeli-held Golan Heights.
鈥淲e saw how Israel treated Syrians in the last seven years, and the goodwill of the Israelis encouraged us to come to the border,鈥� Mohammed told a group of reporters by Skype. 鈥淲e know Israel is a strong country and no one can attack Israel.鈥�
That Syrian civilians would look toward Israel for sanctuary is just one example of how the civil war has reshuffled attitudes here even as it has changed the balance of power. With both Russia and Iran on the winning side, there鈥檚 also a new impetus for Israel to court Russia and come to terms with Mr. Assad鈥檚 political survival.
For the Syrian civilians, the Golan border area is an appealing draw as a de-facto buffer zone. It falls in the demilitarized area delineated聽by the 1974 agreement ending聽the fighting between Israel and Syria that erupted in the 1973 Middle East war. And it聽has remained quiet all these years, even though technically the nations remain at war.
Word of Israel's "Operation Good Neighbor" seems to have spread, especially in southwest Syria, which unfolds beyond the territory that Israel first captured from Syria in 1967. The policy was launched five years ago as Syria鈥檚 civil war showed no sign of ending and amid Israeli concerns that Islamist militants among the Syrian rebels might use the area to launch聽attacks against Israel.
Israel decided the best way to minimize that threat was to encourage border villages and towns to keep such elements away 鈥� first by offering humanitarian assistance in the form of food, gasoline, and medical supplies, and then by expanding that help to include the treatment of wounded Syrians.聽To date some 5,000 Syrians have been treated in Israeli hospitals.
But Israel has聽drawn the line at聽taking in refugees, citing potential security risks and fearing that such a move could set a precedent for letting in refugees from future conflicts on its border.
Israel鈥檚 focus on Iran
But away from the humanitarian drama on its doorstep, Israel鈥檚 chief concern as the Syrian war appears to be winding down is with Iran.
The Iranians and their proxies 鈥� the Lebanese Hezbollah and other imported Shiite forces 鈥� played a leading role supporting聽Assad鈥檚 regime, and Iran鈥檚 forces likely will not leave Syria, Israeli experts warn, but will eventually聽find their way to the border with Israel.
On Sunday, hammering home its zero tolerance of Iran鈥檚 presumed aims, Israel reportedly sent its jets to strike Syria鈥檚 T4 air base, which is used by Iran. It was one of several such strikes in recent months.
The timing of this latest strike, Israeli military analysts suggested,聽seemed linked to a scheduled meeting Wednesday in Moscow between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and聽Russian President Vladimir Putin. Further punctuating the moment, Israel said that a drone launched from Syria was shot down Wednesday after penetrating several miles into Israeli airspace.
Israel is demanding that聽Russia, which played a decisive role in turning the tide of Syria鈥檚 civil war in support of Assad and聽is now acting as a power broker in the country, banish Iran from Syria.
Most observers see that demand as unrealistic and think the most Israel can hope to negotiate would be that the Iranians are kept deeper inside Syria.
Israel鈥檚 fear, says聽Chuck Freilich, a former deputy national security adviser in Israel and a senior fellow at the international security program at Harvard University鈥檚 Belfer Center, is that Iran would be able to聽launch missiles at Israel from Syria鈥檚 border. That would create the possibility of a three-front war along with incoming rocket fire from Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.
鈥淚 am normally the guy saying Israel should cool it, we can take a defensive approach. But this is something [for which] Israel cannot tolerate even the risk,鈥� Mr. Freilich says.聽In such a conflict, he says, 鈥淚srael will be hit in a way never before seen,鈥� with collapsed buildings and clogged roads 鈥渂ecause everyone will leave home to get out of range, and there will be no out of range this time unless you go to the southern Negev鈥�. It will be ugly.鈥�
Assaf聽Orion, a reserve brigadier general and a senior researcher聽at the International Institute for Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, offers a more restrained assessment, saying he does not see聽鈥渕uch appetite on any front鈥� for conflict soon. 鈥淎ll of the involved players understand the consequences of a war,鈥� he says, 鈥渢he grammar of violence is very constrained at the moment.鈥�
The Russia factor
Viewed from Israel, the Syria conflict also plays a role in the complicated relationship between President Trump and Mr. Putin, who can point to Syria to claim he has outmaneuvered the United States, Israel鈥檚 main ally.
That reinforces Israel鈥檚 interest in courting Putin as it girds for a post-civil-war Syria.聽While Russia has indicated it will not kick Iran out of Syria, Mr. Orion argues, Moscow has not been a bad address for Israel鈥檚 requests.
鈥淚n Russia we find a very interesting partner who is attentive to our needs. We can coordinate with them on some issues, although they are not at all a strategic partner like the US is to us,鈥� he says.
That said, if Israel聽continues to strike聽Iranian targets in Syria it will test Russia鈥檚 patience, warns Moshe Maoz, a Syria expert at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
Israel must also determine a path forward with Assad, though Professor Maoz and others surmise that the Syrian leader will have his hands full with rebuilding and consolidating power and that it will take years, if not decades, to rehabilitate the country.
There is no love lost between Israel and Assad. Israel regards him as a war criminal, the man who used chemical weapons on his own people. But he is also the same leader that before and during the civil war kept the border with Israel quiet.
There is something, Moaz allows, to the adage, 鈥淏etter the devil you know.鈥�
With Syrian patients, in Israel
In the meantime, in the northern Israeli coastal town of Nahariya, the process of fostering new attitudes among Syrians continues.
Five years ago, the first wounded Syrians to wake up in聽Israeli hospitals were聽shocked and horrified, doctors recall, having grown up on stories of Israel as a cruel enemy. But later they returned home, in some cases after complicated series of reconstructive surgeries to repair gruesome war wounds, and told friends and neighbors of the excellent treatment they received in Israel, Syrian patients at the hospital say.
Nahariya鈥檚 Galilee Medical Center has treated the majority of the Syrian wounded. Thirteen more Syrians arrived last week, all seriously wounded in the most recent round of fighting. The hospital is currently treating 40 Syrian patients.
Eyal Sela, who directs the hospital鈥檚 head and neck surgical division, describes the sophisticated work that goes聽into reconstructive facial surgery.
鈥淚t鈥檚 a game changer here. We are going to treat anyone who walks into the hospital. We don鈥檛 see nationality or religion,鈥� he said at a media briefing. 鈥淚 am not here to butter you up with clich茅s, but this is what we do.鈥�
But he admits, there is another force propelling him.
鈥淚 do it for my future, for my children,鈥� Dr. Sela says. 鈥淚f I can change the [attitudes] of the Syrian people, I will do it.鈥�
