海角大神

Dressed all in black and with a string of prayer beads wrapped around his wrist, the bearded election monitor in Istanbul's conservative Fatih district predicted that a 鈥測es鈥� result to expand presidential powers would heal Turkey鈥檚 deep divisions, and usher in an era of utopian calm.

鈥淭urkey will be a more understanding, tolerant, and sympathetic country,鈥� said 脺lker Abdullah, an Istanbul security guard appointed by President Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an鈥檚 ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) to watch a polling station for the landmark referendum April 16.

鈥淚f the result is 鈥榶es鈥� 鈥� people will live with each other with more respect, with more diversity,鈥� said Mr. Abdullah, of his expectations of investing Turkey鈥檚 charismatic but divisive leader with sweeping new powers.

The 鈥測es鈥� camp won, but its razor-thin margin of just 51.4 percent 鈥� with virtually every major urban center voting 鈥渘o鈥� 鈥� is not bringing calm. So far the result is instead yielding greater uncertainty, some street protests, a wider crackdown on those protesting the 鈥測es鈥� result, and more divisive rhetoric.

Perhaps most importantly, the aftermath of the vote is also revealing the daunting challenges that Mr. Erdo臒an still faces in the future to unify his citizens, improve the economy, and lower the toll from battling Kurdish and Islamic militants on three fronts, in terms of casualties, terror attacks, and new migrations of refugees.

Prime Minister Binali Y谋ld谋r谋m, whose job will eventually disappear with the constitutional changes, promised 鈥渁 modern era of permanent stability.鈥� But last week, scores of activists opposing the referendum results were arrested nationwide 鈥� some in dawn police raids 鈥� accused of fomenting unrest.

'Responsible for everything'

While the referendum delivered Erdo臒an鈥檚 dream of an executive presidency, and the possibility of legally extending his 15 years at the top of Turkish politics to 2029, analysts say this victory is in many ways a poison chalice. For Erdo臒an, all the power means taking all the responsibility for what goes right 鈥撀燼nd wrong.

鈥淣ow he鈥檚 responsible for everything,鈥� says Asli Aydinta艧ba艧, an Istanbul-based Turkey analyst of for the European Council on Foreign Relations. 鈥淚f there鈥檚 a flare-up in the violence in southeastern Turkey, if the economy doesn鈥檛 go well, if Turkey鈥檚 relations with the West go south 鈥撀燼ll of these things, he will be directly responsible for what happens.鈥�

And, the analysts add, the high expectations among his supporters of a more tranquil future are unlikely to be met anytime soon.

鈥淧ost-April 16 Turkey is becoming more difficult to manage for Erdo臒an, and while he has a history of pragmatic U-turns, I am not sure if it is possible now,鈥� says Ziya Meral, a Middle East analyst for the British Army鈥檚 Centre for Historical Analysis and Conflict Research in London.

Among the challenges, he notes, are a nation 鈥渄angerously divided, with almost half of the country certain that the election results were rigged鈥�; the vulnerabilities of a slowing economy; pressure from conflicts in neighboring Syria, Iraq, and southeast Turkey; and a 鈥渃risis of trust鈥� within the AKP itself.

鈥淕iven it is a close victory for the AKP 鈥� with questions over the reliability of the vote counts 鈥� the combative political polemics and clampdown on opposition will continue,鈥� says Mr. Meral. 鈥淭here are also clear signs of contentions within the AKP, ranging from people not happy about the direction of the party [to] votes lost to power clashes.鈥�

'Unlevel playing field'

Opposition parties have called for a recount and taken the government to court, charging that rigging, ballot-stuffing, and a mid-election-day rule change that allowed uncertified ballots to be counted means the contested number of votes far exceeds the margin of victory. Turnout was 85 percent in Turkey, a NATO member that has aspired to European Union membership for decades.

Observers of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) criticized the vote, saying it took place on an 鈥渦nlevel playing field鈥� and involved the 鈥渕isuse of state resources.鈥� The OSCE also noted the 鈥渙bstruction鈥� of the 鈥渘o鈥� campaign, and that top officials had equated the 鈥渘o鈥� camp with being terrorists.

Erdo臒an has praised the vote as the "most democratic election鈥� of any Western country, and faulted the OSCE. He told the European monitors to 鈥渒now their place鈥� and that he did not 鈥渟ee, hear, or acknowledge鈥� their concerns. 鈥淭he Crusader mentality in the West and its servants at home have attacked us,鈥� he said.

The AKP monitor鈥檚 voting-day prediction of a new era of calm was contradicted by another monitor, appointed instead by the pro-Kurdish opposition Peoples Democratic Party (HDP), whose leaders and scores of lawmakers and mayors have been in prison for months.

Turkey was headed toward 鈥渕uch bigger chaos鈥� in case of a 鈥測es鈥� victory, said Aysel Borak, a Kurdish musician wearing bright colors and much mascara.

鈥淲hat鈥檚 going on is a 鈥楪ray War,鈥� a lot of people could protest,鈥� said Ms. Borak. 鈥淲e鈥檙e going closer to a general civil war,鈥� she added. 鈥淓ventually people will take up arms against this.鈥�

Erdo臒an critics have for years decried what they see as Turkey鈥檚 slide into authoritarian rule, and the increasing erosion of democratic norms.

And yet for Erdo臒an, the moment of reforming Turkey鈥檚 Constitution by popular vote was meant to serve as the crowning achievement for his rule. A 鈥測es鈥� vote would do away with fragile and restrictive coalition governments and ease vicious political discord, the president and AKP officials promised, and would somehow end an 鈥渆ra of coups鈥� that have dogged Turkey for decades 鈥� including a failed attempt to topple Erdo臒an last July.

Where Erdo臒an didn't prevail

For months Erdo臒an and the AKP used state resources to blanket media, the airwaves, and public rallies and spaces with 鈥測es鈥� propaganda, even while severely restricting the 鈥渘o鈥� campaign and arresting some of its proponents. But still, 48.6 percent of Turks voted 鈥渘o.鈥�

鈥淭he fact that [Erdo臒an] lost Istanbul, a city that he effectively ran for 22 years, and all the major population centers and cities, is very telling and must be extremely disturbing for him,鈥� says Ms. Aydinta艧ba艧, who is also a columnist for Cumhuriyet newspaper.

鈥淚t鈥檚 a problem that the more educated Turks are, the less inclined they are to vote for him,鈥� she says.

鈥淗e has to come up with a new story 鈥� about the Erdo臒an reign, and the new promise,鈥� Aydinta艧ba艧 says. 鈥淗e will have to demonstrate that he can continue the growth story 鈥� which has been the hallmark of Erdo臒an鈥檚 movement here 鈥� but there are going to be hard times, tough times.鈥�

That new story will require 鈥渁cknowledgement that Turkey鈥檚 best asset has been, in terms of producing wealth, its democratic potential,鈥� she says.

While supporters suggest Erdo臒an may try to translate victory into a more conciliatory and unifying message for Turks, critics point to the president鈥檚 continued abrasive language since the vote as proof that combative politics will continue as usual.

鈥淗e is not concerned about being unifying,鈥� wrote Mehmet Yilmaz in a column in the H眉rriyet Daily News, titled 鈥淲ill President Erdo臒an change?鈥�

鈥淏ut let鈥檚 not forget that his primary target is to stay in power; to set up a one-man rule,鈥� wrote Mr. Yilmaz. 鈥淲hile doing that, some might get offended. I don鈥檛 think he would make any issue of that.鈥�