As battle for Mosul begins, aid workers gird for humanitarian challenge
| Istanbul
As the long anticipated battle for Mosul gets under way, Iraq faces two critical tests: whether it can deliver a major blow to the Islamic State鈥檚 鈥渃aliphate鈥� with a cohesive military force 鈥撀爓hile also protecting citizens stuck in the middle of a fight seen as potentially transformative for the country.
Artillery fire and coalition aircraft pounded positions of the so-called Islamic State overnight. Within hours of breaking through the IS frontline at 6 a.m., Kurdish聽peshmerga聽forces advancing on three fronts seized half a dozen villages, paving the way for Iraqi Army and police units to advance to the city.
鈥淭he hour of victory has struck,鈥� said Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi, flanked by military officers as he announced the joint Iraqi and Kurdish forces鈥� drive, backed by US airpower, to conquer the last jihadist stronghold in Iraq. 鈥淲e will meet soon on the ground in Mosul to celebrate liberation and your salvation.鈥�
But with shelter currently available for only 60,000 people in camps, the United Nations and aid agencies are facing a potentially monumental challenge in helping that population 鈥� from scenarios as diverse as tens of thousands of Mosul residents being trapped as human shields to an overnight exodus of more than 1 million people. Iraq already has 3.3 million displaced people, with hundreds of thousands of them hailing originally from the country鈥檚 second-largest city.聽
The UN is 鈥渆xtremely concerned鈥� for the safety of up to 1.5 million Mosul residents during the fight, and because 鈥渇unding has been insufficient to prepare fully for the worst-case scenario,鈥� said Stephen O鈥橞rien, the UN humanitarian chief. According to the UN, the humanitarian operation in Mosul could become the 鈥渟ingle largest and most complex in the world鈥� in 2016.
Food rations and construction
Construction of new sites are under way for 250,000 more people; food rations for 220,000 families are ready for distribution; and 143,000 sets of emergency household items are stockpiled, said Mr. O鈥橞rien in a statement. Aid agencies have used available funds 鈥渁s efficiently as possible,鈥� while working 鈥渦nder some of the most difficult and insecure conditions in the world.鈥澛�
But uncertainty reigns as much for the relief agencies as it does for Iraq鈥檚 unlikely alliance of forces 鈥� from Kurds and Shiite militias to reformed and freshly trained Army and police units that have earned a string of recent victories against IS. None know what surprises IS has readied for them on the battlefield. 聽
鈥淭here are questions of where people are going to go, how quickly they are going to get out, and how long it鈥檚 going to take them to get to places where we can help,鈥� says Chris Weeks, a spokesman for World Vision International, one of the most active aid agencies in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq.聽
鈥淭here is going to be some very rapid work to expand the capacity. But there is no point in building a huge facility somewhere, which isn鈥檛 the place where it is needed,鈥� says Mr. Weeks. 鈥淲e鈥檝e got experience responding very quickly; we respond to natural disasters, and this has that kind of feel about it.鈥�
World Vision, for example, has filled warehouses with basic supplies 鈥渂ecause people are going to turn up with nothing,鈥� says Weeks. The agency has operated in northern Iraq since shortly after IS first captured Mosul as part of a lightning offensive from neighboring Syria in June 2014.
One focus has been on helping children deal with the psychological impact of the war, and notes that many remain affected by fleeing the IS advance two years ago.
鈥淚 can only imagine what these children [in Mosul] will have seen over the past couple of years; they shouldn鈥檛 be seeing this type of violence,鈥� adds Weeks. 鈥淎nd the liberation itself 鈥� there is going to be noise, confusion, it鈥檚 going to be a very traumatic and unsettling.鈥�
Much will depend on how the battle for Mosul itself unfolds, and predictions run the gamut.聽
Senior Iraqi, Kurdish and coalition officers have prepared for a tough fight, warning the battle could last weeks or more despite the deployment of some 30,000 Iraqi and allied forces against an estimated 4,000 to 8,000 dug-in IS fighters.
鈥淭his may prove to be a long and tough battle, but the Iraqis have prepared for it and we will stand by them,鈥� said Lt. Gen. Stephen Townsend, commander of the US-led anti-IS coalition.
And yet a mid-ranking IS commander is reported to have said that IS made a tactical decision to withdraw 鈥渉uman resources鈥� to Syria, according to a Facebook interview with The Wall Street Journal.聽
鈥淭here will be no big great epic battle for Mosul,鈥� the IS commander reportedly told the Journal. 鈥淭he tactic now is hit-and-run.鈥澛�
IS has seen recent losses in Syria as well; over the weekend, Turkish-backed rebel forces forced IS out of the northern town of Dabiq, a place important to IS as part of an ancient, apocalyptic narrative that ushers in the apocalypse.
But as important as Mosul has been to IS dreams of a caliphate, it is not yet clear how strongly the militant organization will fight. In Fallujah in June, for example, a fierce defense from IS never materialized as Iraqi forces advanced.
鈥淚 think that鈥檚 what we will see in Mosul, as well,鈥� says Michael Knights, an Iraq specialist at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. 鈥淭his city is too big for them to actively defend with the amount of forces they鈥檝e got. They will probably be able to defend parts of the city, but that鈥檚 it.鈥澛�
Iraqi forces are likely to get to the edge of the city, and probe 鈥撀爅ust as US forces did in Baghdad in 2003, he says, when they arrived 鈥渆xpecting Stalingrad."
鈥淚f [they] feel there is just no resistance, and people inside are walking around saying, 鈥榃here鈥檚 ISIS?鈥� and trying to organize themselves and pick up guns, the temptation is going to be to just roll in,鈥� says Mr. Knights. 鈥淪o everyone鈥檚 going to get ready for Armageddon and 1.7 million refugees coming out, and in fact, 200,000 refugees are going to come out and the city is going to fall relatively quickly and easily,鈥� suggests Knights.
That would be good news for relief agencies on the ground, which are marshaling for the worst case.
鈥淚t鈥檚 all about pre-positioning, about pre-planning different scenarios,鈥� says Weeks from World Vision.
鈥淯ncertainty is part of our everyday work; it鈥檚 inevitable,鈥� he says. 鈥淲e have specialist staff, we are able to get supplies quickly. And it鈥檚 just a question of doing that when the moment comes, when it becomes clear where and when people are going to be.鈥�
