海角大神

Just six months after leading his party to a landslide general election victory, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davuto臒lu announced his resignation Thursday, signaling the deepening dominance of President Recep Tayyip聽Erdo臒an over Turkey鈥檚 political scene.

The resignation followed Mr. Davuto臒lu鈥檚 public fallout with Mr. Erdo臒an over issues ranging from the drafting of a new constitution to Ankara鈥檚 refugee deal with the European Union. But, analysts say the main dispute between the longtime allies was over power.

At a press conference following a hastily scheduled meeting of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), Davuto臒lu announced he will step down and not run in the election of a new party leader, scheduled for May 22.

鈥淚 decided that for the unity of the party, a change of chairman would be more appropriate,鈥� he said, while stressing he had 鈥渘ot a single word of criticism鈥� against Erdo臒an.

Since first assuming the office of prime minister in August 2014, when Erdo臒an vacated it to become president, Davuto臒lu sought to assert his independence on a range of issues, setting himself up as a moderating force on Erdo臒an鈥檚 increasingly authoritarian bent.

In 2014 he attempted to introduce new anticorruption legislation in defiance of the president, and last year he sought to revive peace talks with Kurdish rebels at a time when Erdo臒an no longer desired them.

He has also offered only lukewarm support for Erdo臒an鈥檚 most cherished goal: rewriting Turkey鈥檚 constitution to replace the current parliament-dominated structure with a presidential system that would formalize the shift of power into his own hands.

Behl眉l 脰zkan, an assistant professor of political science at Istanbul鈥檚 Marmara University, says the policy disputes between the two men were not in themselves significant, and that the conflict was 鈥渆ssentially about power.鈥�

鈥淓rdo臒an wants to give orders, and for them to be accepted immediately,鈥� he says. 鈥淒avuto臒lu wanted to change things and put a personal touch on them. Erdo臒an said, 鈥榳ho are you to do this?鈥欌��

On paper, the bulk of executive decision-making in Turkey still lies in the hands of the prime minister, with the presidency a non-political office with limited formal power.

Even though Erdo臒an resigned from the AKP after becoming president, he continues to be the talisman of the party in the eyes of most of its supporters and members, and has retained effective control over it 鈥� a fact underscored by Davuto臒lu鈥檚 effective ouster.

Key role in refugee deal

A bookish former international affairs professor, Davuto臒lu began his political career as Erdo臒an鈥檚 foreign policy adviser, becoming foreign minister in 2009. Although he lacked a strong base of domestic political support, he nonetheless acquired an international reputation as the architect of Turkey鈥檚 foreign policy.

His departure may complicate Ankara鈥檚 already fraught relationship with the United States and the European Union, with whom he had come to be seen as a more measured and conciliatory interlocutor than the pugnacious president.

Hours before the news broke of his expected departure, the EU Commission approved plans to grant Turks visa-free travel as part of a deal in which Turkey is agreeing to help stem the continent鈥檚 refugee crisis 鈥� negotiations in which Davuto臒lu has played a key role.

鈥淒avuto臒lu was trying to project an image of being a man the West could deal with,鈥� says Mr. 脰zkan.

鈥淣ow, whoever replaces him will be Erdo臒an鈥檚 caretaker. The message to the West is that there鈥檚 no Davuto臒lu now, there鈥檚 only Erdo臒an, and they have to deal with him whether they like it or not.鈥�

US was prepared

Henri Barkey, director of the Middle East Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, D.C., says Davuto臒lu鈥檚 departure is unlikely to have any serious impact on US-Turkish relations.

鈥淭he truth is that from the beginning the US never really dealt with Davuto臒lu, they dealt with Erdo臒an, because they had decided that that鈥檚 where power lies.鈥� In the end I think the Americans knew very well that Davuto臒lu was just a sideshow.鈥�

His fall from grace came at the end of a bizarre week that began with the publication Sunday of an article on an anonymous pro-Erdo臒an website that castigated Davuto臒lu and listed 27 instances in which he had supposedly sought to undermine the president.

Pelikandosyasi, or 鈥淧elican Brief鈥� 鈥� a reference to the 1993 political thriller starring Julia Roberts 鈥� seized the attention of Turkey鈥檚 media amid speculation that it was authored by a journalist close to Erdo臒an, and with his blessing.

The two men then met Wednesday night for two hours at Erdo臒an鈥檚 presidential palace in what was billed as a last-ditch effort to resolve their differences. Soon after, news started to leak of Davuto臒lu鈥檚 impending resignation.

Trouble for Erdo臒an in longer term?

His departure will underscore 鈥渢he perception of a one-man regime鈥� in Turkey, says Suat K谋n谋kl谋o臒lu, a former AKP parliamentarian who left office in 2011 and now runs STRATIM, an Ankara-based think tank.

鈥淚t won鈥檛 have any short-term ramifications within the party,鈥� he added. 鈥淢ost will remain silent and accept [Erdo臒an鈥檚] dominance.鈥�

It may, however, signal trouble for Erdo臒an in the longer term. Davuto臒lu鈥檚 selection as prime minister was widely seen as advantageous for the president, because while lacking enough domestic political support to be a threat to him, Davuto臒lu nonetheless commanded a profile that allowed him to be seen as a credible and independent leader of the party in the public鈥檚 eyes.

Replacements with those qualities are now thin on the ground, with analysts suggesting the leading contenders are Erdo臒an鈥檚 son-in-law, Energy Minister Berat Albayrak, or his long-time loyal enforcer, Transportation Minister Binali Y谋ld谋r谋m.

鈥淔rom now on there is no one in the government or the AKP whom he can blame for failures,鈥� says 脰zkan. 鈥淓verything now is controlled by Erdo臒an.鈥�