Without a Plan B, Syria truce is holding despite its flaws
| Istanbul, Turkey
Shortly after the cessation of hostilities came into partial effect in Syria聽a week ago, residents of聽Darayya, a besieged suburb of Damascus, staged spirited demonstrations against the regime聽of President Bashar al-Assad.
It was聽a poignant reminder of the peaceful origins of a protest movement that mutated into聽the聽vicious conflict聽that is聽soon entering its sixth year. Across Syria, thousands have seized on the relative calm to stage protests.
But how long the calm will last is still uncertain.
The cessation of hostilities agreement brokered by the United States and Russia came into effect聽Feb. 27. While there has been a significant reduction in Russian air strikes 鈥� which聽over the past聽five months聽have聽tilted the balance of power squarely in favor of the聽Assad聽regime 鈥� each side聽accuses the other聽of violations.
US officials and international observers have largely lauded the decline in violence. The Syrian conflict has claimed at least 270,000 lives by most counts, although some believe the real death toll may be closer to 500,000. Nearly 8 million Syrians have been displaced within their own country and up to 4 million have become refugees.
Analysts say there are a number of shortcomings in the truce, including the lack of a mechanism to adjudicate and sanction violations, as well as a failure to demarcate the combatants鈥� positions on the ground ahead of the truce. But the lack of alternatives in the quest for peace means there is pressure to downplay the gravity of any breaches.
UN looking to next talks
The UN envoy for Syria, meanwhile, has expressed the hope that the next round of talks between the regime and the opposition, slated for聽March 9, will not be derailed by discussions over cease-fire violations.
For the time being,聽Russia鈥檚 defense ministry says聽both moderate and terrorist opposition groups have repeatedly violated the agreement. President聽Assad insists his forces have 鈥渞efrained from retaliating in order to give a chance for the agreement to survive鈥� but has said 鈥渢here are limits.鈥�
Thursday, the main opposition grouping 鈥� the High Negotiations Committee 鈥� warned that the truce was 鈥渙n the verge of collapse鈥� if world powers failed to do more to address the violations, accusing the regime and its allies of committing more than 100 breaches over the聽previous聽five days.
The Institute for the Study of War, which has been mapping Russian activity in Syria, assesses that Moscow 鈥渃ontinues to strike mainstream armed opposition groups鈥� in multiple provinces 鈥渄espite claiming it would only target terrorist groups after the cessation of hostilities.鈥�
Analysts agree that a violations reporting mechanism聽should have been in place before the truce came into effect, while the opposition is indignant at the lack of consequences for Russia and the regime.
No punishment for violations
鈥淭here doesn鈥檛 seem to be any sanctions for violations,鈥� says Jeffrey White of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.聽鈥淚f it is found that there was a violation, then what? Does that mean someone gets punished? Someone goes to jail? Someone gets bombed? What is the outcome of the adjudication process?鈥�
There is a sharp dissonance between the opposition鈥檚 warnings that they will pull out of talks on account of continued regime strikes against moderate groups and the muted expressions of optimism coming out of Washington and Europe. Mr. White says there is pressure to downplay the violations.
鈥淰iolations are going to have to achieve a pretty high level before they are considered worthy of risking the cessation of hostilities agreement,鈥� he says.
Russia and the regime, adds Mr. White, have been the biggest aggressors as they have continued military operations in rebel-controlled areas deemed of strategic value, particularly in northern Syria along the border with Aleppo province. 鈥淭hat is directly contrary to the spirit of the cessation of hostilities,鈥� he says.
鈥淔rom both the regime and the Russians we will see a continuous effort to test the boundaries of the cease-fire to see how far they can push it,鈥� predicts Amr Al-Azm, a professor at Ohio's Shawnee State University. 鈥淭he main objective is to isolate the opposition from the Turkish border, from the main supply lines.鈥�
'We are being fooled'
Another shortcoming聽of the truce agreement聽was the failure to define the fault lines and who is positioned where. This has allowed Russia to bomb moderate groups included in the cease-fire agreement under the pretext that it is targeting terrorists such as Al Qaeda-linked聽Jabhat al-Nusra, or聽Nusra Front, and the self-declared Islamic State, which are excluded.
鈥淭he mood on the ground is 鈥榳e are being fooled,鈥� 鈥� says Bassma Kodmani, a member of the opposition negotiating team. 鈥淚t is an attempt to 鈥� break opposition ranks with the argument that 鈥榃e are hitting Nusra.鈥� 鈥�
The High Negotiations Committee documented 13聽alleged聽breaches on March 3 alone, including two Russian warplane raids and two regime warplane raids聽against targets that included US-backed rebel factions. That is a major drop, however, compared with the weeks leading to the cease-fire.聽
Ms. Kodmani says the committee is also going to present evidence that Russia and the regime have used chlorine in its attacks. Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon聽has also accused Damascus of 鈥渦sing military grade chemical weapons,鈥� including dropping barrels of chlorine on civilians, during the truce.
One聽benefit of the cessation of hostilities has been a relative improvement in the delivery of aid in Syria, which 鈥� along with the halt of air strikes, the lifting of sieges, and the release of prisoners 鈥� has been a central condition of the opposition to enter more substantive talks.
No Plan B
This week humanitarian aid reached the Damascus suburb of Moadamiyeh, one of 18 besieged communities in Syria cut off from humanitarian aid. The United Nations refugee agency is working on reaching other areas in the coming days. But opposition official says such efforts have fallen well short of expectations.
The UN envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, says he hopes the two camps will engage on 鈥渟ubstantive issues鈥澛燼t the next round of talks.
鈥淎s long as there is some sort of movement on the delivery of aid, it will make it harder for the opposition to refuse to participate,鈥� says聽Professor聽Azm, 鈥淭hey are not in any position to dictate any fierce terms.鈥�
While the cease-fire has its limitations, there are few alternatives to聽resolving聽a conflict injected into聽both聽the sectarian power struggle聽between聽the Arab Gulf and Iran as well as聽the聽US-Russian rivalry.
鈥淭he United States and [Secretary of State John] Kerry in particular are enormously invested in the success of the cessation of hostilities and the success of negotiations,鈥� says White. 鈥淭here is really no Plan B.鈥�
