Saudi succession: Rival princes jockey as global oil slump hits home
| Amman, Jordan
The deteriorating health of King Salman,聽on the throne for less than a year, is fueling a bitter succession battle in Saudi Arabia that has drawn in royals across generations and political stripes.
King Salman reportedly was hospitalized earlier in October.聽In his 鈥渢emporary absence,鈥� palace insiders say, the monarch鈥檚 two crown princes took charge.
The 79-year-old monarch has since returned to work, meeting with US Secretary of State John Kerry and other foreign officials in recent weeks.
But longtime observers say what palace officials refuse to admit publicly:聽King Salman is unlikely to continue his reign unaided. As a result, bitter infighting over his succession has begun and has exposed a sharp division聽between conservative and reformist branches in the royal family.
The聽infighting could not come at a worse time for Saudi Arabia. The country remains embroiled in an eight-month-long war in Yemen and plunging oil prices recently caused Standard & Poor鈥檚 to downgrade its credit rating.
A prolonged oil slump threatens Saudi Arabia鈥檚 lavish public spending, most of which goes to salaries. Last month the International Monetary Fund projected Saudi Arabia would run a 22 percent GDP deficit this year 鈥� and that its cash reserves would run out within five years at the current rate.
In Salman鈥檚 absence, palace insiders say, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef聽took charge of聽interior security and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the ailing king鈥檚 son, handled foreign affairs, economic, and defense portfolios.
Yet because of Mohammed bin Salman鈥檚 unfettered access to聽his father鈥檚聽advisers and his role in leading the war in Yemen, palace insiders say the young prince has assumed greater responsibility and at times has served as 鈥渄e facto head of state.鈥�
鈥淎ll final decisions pass first through Prince Mohammed bin Salman,鈥� one royal court official said.
A two-horse succession race
Under the current line of succession established by Salman, Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, who is 56, would be next in line to the throne, followed by Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is 30.聽
Both princes have supporters within and outside the kingdom. Mohammed bin Nayef has built ties with Washington by positioning Saudi Arabia as an ally in fighting terrorism, while聽Prince Mohammed bin Salman has聽styled聽himself as an economic liberalizer.聽
In May, King Salman deputized his son to represent him at a summit of Persian Gulf nations in the US. The following month the son聽visited Russian President Vladimir Putin聽in St. Petersburg.
Still, battle over control of the kingdom is not a simple two-horse race. According to longtime Saudi observers,聽a wider struggle between reformers and conservatives聽is underway聽within the 271-year-old House of Saud.
Reformists within the royal family聽quickly soured on King Salman, who was seen as unwilling to open up聽and continued a crackdown on the country鈥檚 Shiite minority, refusing to commute the death sentence of key Shiite cleric Nimr al Nimr and his young nephew, Ali al Nimr. The King聽also declined聽to release dozens of political prisoners.
鈥淭he Saudi government and Saudi Royal family have always been a balance between conservative forces and calls for change, and King Salman has swung in favor of the conservatives 鈥�聽this may have caused a backlash,鈥� says Frederic Wehrey, senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace鈥檚 Middle East Program.
Dissent aired in public
Reformists reportedly also reject Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who they fear will聽continue his father鈥檚聽legacy.聽Instead, they favor another candidate for the throne: Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz, son of聽the late聽Saudi founder Abdulaziz Ibn Saud, who they claim by birthright holds a more legitimate claim to the throne.
In a rare public display of royal infighting, an unnamed prince published an open letter in September calling for King Salman鈥檚 dismissal, extolling Prince Ahmed鈥檚 credentials. Reformists say Prince Ahmed showed leniency towards political prisoners聽during his term as deputy interior minister.
Among those clamoring for change in the palace are royals who object to King Salman鈥檚 unorthodox succession plan,聽which leapfrogged 11 of Abdulaziz Ibn Saud鈥檚 surviving sons (Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef are both grandsons of the late patriarch.)
鈥淚t has long been an established rule in Saudi that the greatest threat to the ruler鈥檚 power comes from his first constituency: the royal family,鈥� says Gregory Gause, a Gulf expert and professor of international affairs at Texas A&M University.
鈥淪ince the 1960s, the way of avoiding conflict was power-sharing among a set of princes," he says. "Salman has upset the tradition by consolidating a lot of power in those two princes and now we are seeing this playing out.鈥�
An internal coup?
A name being put forward by some conservatives is Prince Muqrin bin Abdulaziz, the former head of Saudi intelligence services.聽In April he聽was removed from the post of crown prince and the line of succession by King Salman.
The聽removal聽of a Saudi king by disgruntled royals is not without precedent. In 1964, a group of Abdulaziz Ibn Saud鈥檚 sons forced then-King Saud, their brother, to abdicate because of his reckless spending and erratic behavior.
While such an internal coup could occur, it would only take place under a broad agreement, observers say. When faced with external challenges, such as what Saudi Arabia sees as a growing threat posed by regional rival Iran, Saudi royals tend to close ranks in order to ensure stability, at least in the short term.
鈥淎t the end of the day, this is a family that closes ranks in the face of external threats,鈥� Mr. Wehrey said.聽鈥淭here may be jockeying for power within the royal family 鈥�聽but even that jockeying has its limits.鈥�
