海角大神

The worst suicide bombing in Turkey鈥檚 modern history is casting a cloud of fear over the run-up to snap elections on Nov. 1.

No group has claimed responsibility for the Oct. 10 attack on a peace rally in the capital, Ankara, that killed 102 people. Government officials say the self-declared Islamic State (IS) is the prime suspect. Turkish media have identified the bombers as Turkish citizens who fought in Syria and were known to police.

In this increasingly polarized nation, the tragedy appears to have hardened social and political divisions. Activists on both sides are redoubling their efforts to convince voters to switch their allegiance, going door-to-door to win converts, though polls indicate little change from the last election in June. At stake is the political future of President Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an and his Justice and Development Party (AKP), which is seeking a parliamentary majority to extend more than a decade of unbridled power. 聽

鈥淚 want this party not for 12 years, but for 100 years,鈥� says Fikret Ye艧ilyurt, a kickboxing trainer who is among the legion of AKP supporters canvassing voters in Istanbul鈥檚 Be艧ikta艧 district.

鈥淢ore than half of this country likes Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an, and that鈥檚 why he鈥檚 on the top 鈥撀爃e鈥檚 a very strong person,鈥� says Mr. Ye艧ilyurt, who wears a large ring with the symbol of the pre-World War I Ottoman army. Turks have been divided among themselves for 650 years, he says, responding to a question about the president鈥檚 us-versus-them politics, but Erdo臒an has been 鈥渄oing this for only five years.鈥�

Critics and political opponents are calling Erdo臒an a 鈥渕urderer鈥� and 鈥渄ictator鈥� with blood on his hands, and blame him for creating conditions for the surge in violence 鈥撀燽y enabling the creation of jihadist groups in Syria and risking their violent blowback, and ratcheting up attacks against Kurdish separatists since July.

鈥淲e feel a big risk from bombs; terrorism is everywhere,鈥� says Mustafa Kocagil, a retired biologist who campaigns for the secular opposition Republican People鈥檚 Party (CHP) in Istanbul鈥檚 hip Cihangir district. 鈥淲e are afraid of big markets, the underground metro, walking on the streets, in cafes. In Turkey, life is stopped because we are afraid.鈥�

Repeat result?

Analysts expect the upcoming vote to change little from a June 7 election result in which a pro-Kurdish party made it into parliament with 13 percent of the vote, depriving the AKP of its ability to rule alone for the first time since 2002.

A repeat result would force the AKP to form a coalition government. Erdo臒an has claimed that if an AKP majority had been elected last June 鈥撀爓inning perhaps 400 deputies of the 550 seats in parliament 鈥� there would have been no violence, and the 鈥渟ituation today would have been very different.鈥�

Prime Minister Ahmet Davuto臒lu has called on Turks to restore single-party government to 鈥渇ight both the terror plague and economic challenges.鈥� 聽聽聽

Polls conducted just prior to the explosions point to the AKP taking some 41 percent of the vote and failing to regain their majority.

Politicians and voters alike are conflating their views of Erdo臒an 鈥撀燼s the source of all good in Turkey, or of all evil 鈥撀爓ith a new sense of vulnerability from IS jihadists. At the same time, Turkish forces are engaged in renewed fighting against Kurdistan Workers鈥� Party (PKK) militants that has left hundreds dead since July, ending a years-long peace process.

Mr. Davuto臒lu has suggested that both IS and the PKK are responsible for the Ankara bombing, lumping those enemies of Turkey together, even though IS is fighting all Kurdish groups across the northern regions of Syria and Iraq.

In pre-dawn raids in Istanbul on Sunday morning, police detained some 50 IS-linked suspects, all of them non-Turkish citizens, according to the state-run Anadolu Agency.

Meanwhile, the pro-Kurdish People鈥檚 Democratic Party (HDP) is likely to largely hold its 13 percent support, again preventing the AKP from being able to rule alone. No significant poll results have yet been released since the bombing; the Ankara chief prosecutor鈥檚 office issued a temporary gag order preventing Turkish media from reporting details of the investigation.

Stagnancy in politics

Indeed, the decade-long trend in Turkey of voters attaching their identity to one party has only deepened. The AKP transformed politics when it came to power in 2002, after a string of elections in the 1980s and 1990s in which different parties won each time.

The AKP, by contrast, reflected more than any previous party the identity of a plurality of Turkish voters 鈥撀營slamic leaning, but also progressive in many ways with a modern economic outlook, says 陌hsan Da臒i, a professor at Middle East Technical University in Ankara.

鈥淪ince 2002 you have this stagnancy in Turkish politics because 鈥� voters identified themselves with popular political parties,鈥� says Mr. Da臒i, explaining why Turkey again is likely to have a hung parliament with the AKP taking the largest share. Its once-commanding lead has been eroded by anti-Erdo臒an protests and corruption scandals in 2013, and declining economic growth.

鈥淪o you can change your views 鈥� but you cannot really change your identity overnight, or from June to November,鈥� says Da臒i. 鈥淧eople stick to their parties, because their parties represent their identity.鈥�

Personal attacks are daily election fodder

AKP officials reject personal attacks on Erdo臒an, though they are critical daily fodder for the opposition. The term 鈥渕urderer,鈥� as chanted during some protests after the Ankara bombing, especially rankles says Fer艧at Yildirim, the AKP鈥檚 district president in Be艧ikta艧.

鈥淢y president is respected by the people of the world,鈥� he says. 鈥淭hat word is not suitable for our president because he is trying to look after all Muslims 鈥� how can he kill his own people?鈥�

Referring to the Ankara bombings, he adds: 鈥淭hese bombs were planned to kill a lot of people, to create big chaos to change people鈥檚 thinking. We talk to people about the situation before and after the June vote, how much worse it has got, and we will do this until the last minute.鈥�

At the CHP office across town, the words 鈥淓rdo臒an鈥� and 鈥渄ictator鈥� are used interchangeably. CHP pendants are strung from the third-floor office across Istiklal Street, Istanbul鈥檚 main pedestrian avenue.

鈥淓rdo臒an wanted to be a sultan, but he didn鈥檛 get yes from the people and he got very angry,鈥� says T眉lay Bozkurt, a former 5-star hotel receptionist. She canvasses door to door for CHP, but says that changing minds is not easy among Turks with two distinct worldviews.

鈥淪ome people say, 鈥榊ou are right, Erdo臒an is a killer, a murderer, a bad man and we won鈥檛 vote for him again,鈥欌�� says Ms. Bozkurt. 鈥淥ther people say, 鈥榃e are with him until the end of our lives.鈥� There are many who are hungry and have no job, but say they love Erdo臒an. I think they are crazy.鈥�