The end of Oslo? Why Abbas dropped his promised 'bombshell' at the UN.
| Al Amari Refugee Camp, West Bank
Mahmoud Abbas told the United Nations Wednesday that the Palestinians no longer see themselves as bound by their two-decades-old peace agreements with Israel.
It was a provocative but vague move that speaks as much to the eroding public support for the Palestinian Authority president at home as it does a desire to pressure the Jewish state internationally and to indirectly threaten a new uprising.
Speaking before the UN General Assembly, Mr. Abbas accused Israel of violating the Oslo peace accords of the 1990s 鈥� a situation he argued perpetuates Israel鈥檚 dominance of the Palestinian residents and renders his government effectively powerless.
鈥淭hey leave us no choice but to insist that we will not remain the only ones committed to the implementation of these agreements, while Israel continuously violates them,鈥� Abbas said. 鈥淲e therefore declare that we cannot continue to be bound by these agreements.鈥�
Though the Palestinian president refused to detail exactly what his statement means in terms of how his government works with Israel聽鈥� most critically whether his security forces will continue to coordinate with the Israeli military 鈥� it could trigger rising confrontations with Israel and an erosion in functioning of the Palestinian Authority (PA).聽聽聽聽 聽
The statement delivered on a pre-speech vow to make a 鈥渂ombshell鈥� announcement聽from the General Assembly podium. That stemmed in part from a need to offset a significant erosion in his standing and growing antigovernment unrest around the West Bank, says Khalil Shikaki, a Palestinian pollster who spoke hours before the speech.
鈥淗e feels his legitimacy is eroding,鈥� Mr. Shikaki says. 鈥淗e realizes that he has to take significant steps to contain the prevailing perception among the public that he鈥檚 a failure.鈥�
Only a week ago in this聽overcrowded West Bank refugee camp south of Ramallah, some of that sentiment was on display as hundreds of protesters faced down Palestinian security forces. Though it was supposed to be a show of solidarity聽in defense of聽Muslim holy sites at a time of clashes in聽Jerusalem鈥檚 Old City, demonstrators also聽vented frustration with Abbas and his government.
Two-thirds wanted him to resign
鈥淲e were chanting, 鈥榊asqut聽Abbas, Yasqut Abbas,鈥� 鈥澛燗rabic for 鈥渕ay Abbas fall,鈥� recalls Yaqkhin Mohammed, a 16-year-old resident聽of Al Amari.聽鈥淗e is a failure of a president. I won鈥檛 display his picture.鈥�
A similar protest flared days earlier in the West Bank city of Bethlehem as residents there protested the beating of a local youth by Palestinian security forces. Some demonstrators wore T-shirts reading 鈥淚rhal Abbas,鈥� borrowing a word for 鈥済o home鈥� popularized in Egypt鈥檚 Arab Spring protests four years ago.
Shikaki聽corroborated in a survey this month that antigovernment sentiment among Palestinians is now widespread. The survey found that two thirds of Palestinians would like Abbas to resign聽and that a majority want a return to an armed uprising against Israel.聽And yet, the same survey suggested聽there is no consensus on who should succeed聽Abbas 鈥� evidence of ongoing political atrophy.
The negative sentiment聽鈥撀爄ts depth is remarkable according to Shikaki even against the backdrop of years of public malaise toward聽Abbas鈥檚聽leadership聽鈥� is driven by a mix of factors.
First and foremost, it reflects disillusionment with聽his聽championing of diplomacy over armed conflict with Israel,聽which聽has failed to achieve statehood. The latest attempt at peace negotiations聽ran aground聽more than a year ago, while Palestinians see only the gradual expansion of Jewish settlements in the West Bank.
Daily security cooperation at stake
It also reflects frustration with Palestinian politics, which have atrophied following a rift between聽Abbas and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. No less important, the declining numbers reflect聽eroding聽credibility for Abbas, who turned 80 this year and periodically declares his desire to resign聽after more than 10 years in office聽but never acts on it.聽Then there are longstanding allegations that Abbas hasn't rooted out corruption in the PA.
鈥淭his is unprecedented to see Abbas鈥檚 status going down in this way鈥� There鈥檚 a聽lack of confidence in the public mind that he can change the status quo,鈥澛爏ays聽Shikaki, director of the Ramallah-based Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research. 鈥淭he feeling is that he is not able to lead in ending the occupation, not able to lead in unifying the Palestinians, and not able to end the corruption.鈥�
At the UN聽Wednesday,聽Abbas said聽鈥淚srael must assume all of its responsibilities as an occupying power because the status quo cannot continue.鈥� He left, just hours before the first-ever raising of the Palestinian flag at the UN.
Analysts don鈥檛 expect Abbas to end the daily cooperation between the governments in daily affairs, but admit the statement could take on a life of its own and unravel the relationship.
鈥淗e didn鈥檛 say anything operative, and my guess is nothing operative will be done,鈥欌�� says Gershon Baskin, an Israeli expert on ties with the Palestinians who believes it鈥檚 part of an effort to get the international community to pressure Israel.
Abbas was vulnerable
Abbas was initially welcomed by the international community and the Palestinian public when he took over聽chairmanship of the PLO聽following the death of聽iconic Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat in 2004.
But聽the failure of negotiations,聽expansion of Israeli settlements, and聽his聽support for security coordination with Israel 鈥撀爏een as聽tamping down a new uprising for the last 10 years 鈥� have聽left him vulnerable to attack. The rift with Hamas and failure to agree on new elections after his five-year term expired in 2010聽have聽also undermined his credibility.
As聽Al聽Amari鈥檚聽main street slowly came to life this week聽at the end of the Eid el-Adha holiday, a group of men opening聽their聽shops sharply criticized聽their president and the Palestinian government.
鈥淧eople are fed up with him. He has done nothing for them. They hoped he would heal the Palestinian internal politics and make peace with Israel,鈥� says Showkeit Said, a plumber.聽He says聽his mother was fired from a job in government, dominated by Abbas鈥檚 secular Fatah party, when she told people of her support for Hamas. 鈥淗e doesn鈥檛 allow freedom of speech. He suppressed the demonstrations and the armed resistance. He works only for the sake of Israel.鈥�
'Serious change in attitude'
But the Palestinian leader has his defenders in the refugee camp. 鈥淥ur criticism is sometimes unfair,鈥� says Sha鈥檈r Haroun, a government employee,聽as opponents from the neighborhood angrily accused him of bias.聽鈥淣o one accepts the successor of Yasser Arafat.鈥�
Abbas聽was聽credited聽in聽the international community with reforming聽the聽Palestinian security forces and dismantling Aqsa Brigades militant cells that fought Israel while sowing lawlessness in the West Bank.聽But as聽his support erodes, there has been rising endorsement for a return to armed conflict with Israel and growing disillusionment with the goal of creating a Palestinian state alongside Israel.
鈥淢ost of the Fatah people in the camp have created a mutiny against him,鈥� says Khurbani, an Al Amari shopkeeper who refused to give his full name for fear of arrest. 鈥淓very camp has an Aqsa Brigades that has split off from him.鈥�
Shikaki,聽the pollster,聽says the jump in support for a new intifada 鈥� 57 percent compared聽with聽49 percent three months ago 鈥� 鈥渋s a serious change in attitude,鈥� he says. 鈥淚t reflects loss of confidence in the leadership, a loss of confidence in diplomacy, increasing suspicion in the PA 鈥� whether it is an聽asset or liability.鈥�
