海角大神

Cuneyt was five years old when Turkish soldiers entered his village and told its Kurdish residents to leave.

It was at the height of Turkey鈥檚 war with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Accused of harboring separatist guerrillas, the entire village in the southeastern province of Birlis was torched to the ground.

Cuneyt and his family fled to Istanbul, and for years, he says, he felt like a second-class citizen 鈥� that is, until Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an offered new hope for Turkey鈥檚 largest ethnic minority.

As prime minister, Mr. Erdo臒an broke with tradition by admitting that the state had 鈥渕ade mistakes鈥� in its treatment of the Kurds and helped to launch a peace process.

鈥淚 voted for Erdogan because he promised to solve the Kurdish problem and accepted the PKK as someone to talk to 鈥� no other politician at the time showed such courage,鈥� says Cuneyt, now 26, who didn鈥檛 give a second name. 鈥淏ut this was just empty talk. He is only interested in getting more power for himself and rules like a dictator. Now, the Kurdish people have a new choice.鈥�

The Kurds, in fact, are poised to be the kingmakers in Sunday鈥檚 general election 鈥� Turkey's most tightly contested in over a decade. Holding the key to Kurdish aspirations for greater rights, and Erdo臒an鈥檚 , is the People鈥檚 Democratic Party (HDP), which is seeking to enter parliament for the first time.听If the HDP succeeds, the Kurds would be propelled into the political mainstream, transforming the balance of power while potentially ending 12 years of single-party rule.

鈥淚f the HDP gets in, the Kurds become a legitimate player in Turkey,鈥� says Aliza Marcus, a US-based Kurdish expert and author of the book 鈥淏lood and Belief: The PKK and the Kurdish Fight for Independence.鈥�

鈥淚t will mean that for once, they are a real political party that represents a part of the Turkish electorate, that has the potential to sway how things are decided in parliament.鈥�

Risky gamble

In Turkey鈥檚 electoral system, the Kurds鈥� decision to band together听is a high-stakes gamble: If the HDP manages to cross the 10 percent threshold needed to enter the legislature, it could win enough seats to听deny Erdo臒an鈥檚 Justice and Development Party (AKP) the majority it needs to rule alone.听

If it falls short, those seats would go to the AKP, leaving the Kurds out in the cold. Currently there are 27 independently elected Kurds who united as a parliamentary bloc under the HDP banner. If the party passes the threshold it could win as many as 60 seats. The听鈥渙ld guard鈥� center-left Republican People鈥檚 Party (CHP) is predicted to poll second behind the AKP, followed by the nationalist MHP.

HDP鈥檚 appeal lays in its reinvention 鈥� it has styled itself as a liberal party that represents the interests of Kurds and Turks alike. Led by the young and charismatic Selahattin Demirtas, a former human rights lawyer nicknamed 鈥渢he Kurdish Obama,鈥� the HDP is running on a platform of greater democracy and equal rights for the country鈥檚 disenfranchised minorities. Nearly half of the HDP candidates are women 鈥� a list that includes ethnic Alevis, Armenians, and .

And the听HDP has attracted non-Kurdish voters frustrated with Erdogan鈥檚 increasingly authoritarian rule.听鈥淲hen it comes to our rights and freedoms, this election is the last stop before Turkey heads off a cliff,鈥� says Kaptan Gul, a high school biology teacher in Istanbul. 鈥淭he HDP is our best chance to block Erdogan from getting more power. We must try something different.鈥�

Peace process

Hanging in the balance of Sunday鈥檚 election is the fragile peace between Turkey and Kurdish militants.

Erdogan initially won praise for his efforts to end a conflict that has killed 40,000 people over three decades. A bargain for peace with the PKK鈥檚 jailed leader, Abdullah 脰calan, delivered a ceasefire in 2013, but negotiations have stalled amid rising mistrust.

Tensions nearly boiled over last October over Ankara鈥檚 failure to intervene during the Islamic State鈥檚 siege of the Syrian border town of Kobane and its description of the Kurdish fighters as terrorists. Erdogan further alienated many Kurds when he declared in March that Turkey had 鈥渘o Kurdish problem.鈥�

Many Turks remain suspicious of the HDP鈥檚 links to the PKK, which is listed as a terrorist organization by the United States. To rally听his nationalist base, Erdogan has in recent weeks fanned听those fears, describing the HDP as 鈥渢errorists,鈥� and its members as 鈥渁theists and Zoroastrians.鈥�

This divisive rhetoric is turning off conservative Kurdish voters who had supported the AKP, warns Henri Barkey, a Turkey specialist at Lehigh University in Pennsylvania. "They are now more reticent to believe Erdogan and his intentions, which will make it much harder for the peace process to get off its feet with an Erdogan victory.鈥�

Mr. Demirtas, the HDP leader, insists the party will remain committed to the peace process even if it fails to enter parliament. But analysts warn of unrest if the Kurds 鈥� who account for roughly 20 percent of Turkey鈥檚 population of about 80 million 鈥� are shut out of parliament.听

鈥淚n the short term, it鈥檚 going to lead to a very nasty, potentially dangerous escalation,鈥� says Mr. Barkley.

鈥淭here鈥檚 a risk for war,鈥� says Tuba, 29, a Kurdish HDP supporter in Istanbul who works in advertising. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 want that, we want peace and a parliamentary system in which our voices can be heard.听But people have reached their limit with this system. If they can鈥檛 represent themselves, they will explode.鈥�听