海角大神

When Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas visited Ankara, Turkey, in January, an extraordinary sight awaited him 鈥� and not just the enormous new palace of his host.

On the grand staircase of the 1,150-room complex, which dwarfs both the Kremlin and Versailles, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan greeted him flanked by 16 warriors dressed in period garb, supposedly representing 16 Turkic dynasties dating back to ancient times.

Photographs of the encounter provoked mirth online, with some commentators asking whether the two leaders were starring in their own version of 鈥淣ight at the Museum.鈥�

The costumes were no joke, however, and have now become a standard part of Mr. Erdogan鈥檚 honor guard. Like the enormous palace, they illustrate the increasingly eccentric figure Turkey鈥檚 leader is cutting on the world stage, as well as his vaunting ambition. His rhetoric often invokes Turkey鈥檚 imperial heritage, especially the Ottoman Empire, which once ruled North Africa, the Middle East, and much of Southeast Europe.

鈥淚 think it was a message of power intended for a domestic audience, but it was also saying to visitors: 鈥楬ere you are, meeting the leader of the Turks,鈥� 鈥� says Asli Aydintasbas, a foreign-affairs columnist for the Milliyet newspaper.

鈥淭he government鈥檚 becoming clouded by this kind of thinking, losing grasp of reality. The people who came up with it couldn鈥檛 see how ridiculous it would look abroad.鈥�

Turkey鈥檚 growing newfound swagger on the world stage extends beyond just ceremony, with Ankara taking assertive stances on a range of regional crises 鈥� stridently supporting intervention to topple Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, loudly denouncing a coup in Egypt that other major powers have quietly accepted, and hammering Europe for an alleged rise in Islamophobia.

Champion of oppressed Muslims

Often striking a strongly anti-Western tone, Erdogan depicts his nation as the champion of the world鈥檚 oppressed Muslims 鈥� a stance that threatens to leave Turkey isolated both in the West and the Middle East.

鈥淔oreigners love oil, gold, diamonds, and the cheap labor force of the Islamic world,鈥� he told an assembly of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation in Istanbul, Turkey, last November. 鈥淭hey look like friends, but they want us dead; they like seeing our children die. How long will we stand that fact?鈥�

A pious Muslim who started his career in Islamist politics, Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) have transformed Turkey during their 12 years in power, championing the country鈥檚 conservative masses who were discriminated against under previous secularist governments.

The AKP also ended the isolationist policies of previous administrations, engaging in particular with the Middle East, a region on Turkey鈥檚 doorstep it had long ignored. In the past five years Ankara has shifted from seeking a role as conciliator in the region鈥檚 crises to that of champion of its oppressed.

Erdogan鈥檚 rhetoric 鈥� more reminiscent of leaders such as Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the former Iranian president, or Venezuela鈥檚 late president Hugo Ch谩vez 鈥� has rung alarm bells in the West, raising concerns the country may no longer be a reliable ally.

Few friends in Washington

鈥淎nkara has virtually no friends in Washington now,鈥� says Michael Werz, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress. He cited as one factor Ankara鈥檚 continuing refusal to open its Incirlik Air Base for use by the coalition forces fighting against Islamic State (known as both IS and ISIS) in Iraq and Syria. 鈥淓ven among Turkey鈥檚 supporters, there鈥檚 a growing frustration that it鈥檚 not fulfilling its responsibilities as a close ally,鈥� Mr. Werz says.

Ankara has been slow to commit more strongly to the anti-IS coalition, asserting that a broader strategy is needed to tackle the Syrian civil war. It has tried to use Incirlik as a bargaining chip to persuade Washington to commit to a more comprehensive strategy to topple Mr. Assad, whose brutal repression of the country鈥檚 Sunni majority it regards as the root cause of IS鈥檚 rise and the country鈥檚 3-1/2-year-old civil war.

Incirlik is just one of the sticking points emerging between Turkey and the West, however. Ankara has angered its allies by turning a blind eye as its border became the chief conduit for foreign jihadists in and out of Syria, and for appearing to back Sunni Islamic groups including local Al Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra.

鈥淲e ultimately had no choice but to agree to disagree,鈥� Francis Ricciardone, who served as US ambassador to Turkey from 2011 to mid-2014, told an Atlantic Council Conference in September. 鈥淭he Turks frankly worked with groups for a period, including al-Nusra, whom we finally designated as we鈥檙e not willing to work with.鈥�

Sense of betrayal

In turn, Ankara felt let down by the Obama administration鈥檚 failure to do more to back the moderate Syrian opposition, particularly after the Assad regime crossed President Obama鈥檚 鈥渞ed line鈥� on the use of chemical weapons.

Relations with the European Union, which Ankara is negotiating to join, are increasingly strained by Brussels鈥� concerns about press freedom and rising authoritarianism in Turkey, and Turkey鈥檚 frustration at several states鈥� opposition to its accession.

鈥淓rdogan feels betrayed by the West,鈥� says Ceren Kenar, a columnist at the T眉rkiye newspaper. 鈥淔irstly, the painful EU process is going nowhere, and secondly he feels that the West has betrayed democracy in the Middle East.

鈥漌hile railing against Turkey鈥檚 Western allies, Ankara, since the start of the Arab Spring, has championed Muslim Brotherhood movements from Syria to Tunisia, riling the region鈥檚 two major Arab powers, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.鈥淚n 2011 to 2012 both [then-Foreign Minister Ahmet] Davutoglu and Erdogan believed that there would be a Muslim Brotherhood belt ... and Turkey would be the leader of it,鈥� says Behlul Ozkan, an assistant professor of international relations at Marmara University in Istanbul.

Turkey has lambasted the West for accepting the 2013 coup that overthrew Egypt鈥檚 Islamist president, Mohamed Morsi. It was a fervent backer of Mr. Morsi, whose ouster by Abdel Fattah al-Sisi raised painful memories of Turkey鈥檚 own recent history, in which the military has toppled four elected governments in the past 60 years.

A principled policy

Ankara鈥檚 refusal to accept the coup or to stop its strong backing of the now outlawed Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood comes after its other major backer, Qatar, cut its support under pressure from Saudi Arabia.

In September Turkey agreed to take in exiled Brotherhood members after Qatar expelled them under pressure from Riyadh. Similarly in December, it took in leaders of Hamas, the Brotherhood鈥檚 Palestinian chapter, who were similarly forced to relocate their political operations.

Turkey鈥檚 leaders insist its stance is part of a principled policy of supporting democratic movements and elected governments, and opposing autocratic regimes.

Mr. Davutoglu, now prime minister, 鈥渂elieves that Turkey can maximize its influence in the region if it supports democracies,鈥� says Ms. Kenar, the T眉rkiye columnist. 鈥淗e believes that if democracy prevails, Turkey will naturally be the leading country, and in the long term I believe that that鈥檚 the correct stance.鈥�

However, others see it less charitably 鈥� as populist posturing that may play on public sympathy in Turkey but will leave the country isolated abroad.鈥淚 don鈥檛 see much of a change of course in the future,鈥� says Semih Idiz, a foreign affairs commentator at the Taraf newspaper.

鈥淓rdogan sees himself as a man on a mission, a potential changer of the world order. It鈥檚 working for him domestically, and he does have popularity on the streets of the Middle East, but that doesn鈥檛 matter, because you have to deal with the regimes.鈥澛�

With Turkey now gearing up for general elections in June, Erdogan is also likely to continue to propound his loud message of anti-Westernism and Muslim solidarity. However, few observers picture Turkey becoming a rogue like Venezuela or Iran.

Shared security threat

The crisis in Syria, though aggravating tensions between Ankara and the West, also poses a shared security threat that will likely keep Turkey anchored in the Western sphere. Since January 2013, NATO has deployed Patriot missile defense batteries in the country, at Ankara鈥檚 request, to protect from any strike by Assad.

Ankara is also waking up to the threat posed by IS. The country鈥檚 burgeoning tourist hubs, which attracted more than 36 million visitors last year and generate 5 percent of gross domestic product, could be a tempting target for IS, which is believed to have an entrenched network in Turkey.

An Ankara-based Western diplomat says cooperation on security issues was improving, particularly in the effort to combat the flow of jihadist recruits to Syria.

鈥淲hat they鈥檝e seen over the past year is that ISIS is not just our problem, but everyone鈥檚 problem,鈥� says the diplomat.Professor Ozkan believes that rather than a break in relations, Erdogan is seeking a renegotiation of the terms of Turkey鈥檚 relationship with the West.

鈥淭his elite doesn鈥檛 see Turkey as part of the West,鈥� he says. 鈥淭hey want a strategic relationship with the West, but they do not share Western values and ideals.鈥�

With Erdogan鈥檚 domestic power appearing unassailable, the West may have little choice but to accept this new reality, Ozkan believes, adding that the growing eccentricity of Erdogan will continue to be a problem it has to deal with.

鈥淭urkey is turning into a one party, one leader regime. Erdogan鈥檚 becoming very powerful, and he鈥檚 making eccentric moves,鈥� Ozkan says. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think any Western leader is happy to have his picture taken with him these days.鈥�

The prospect of a photo opportunity with his new honor guard may make them particularly queasy.