海角大神

An Ahmadinejad comeback? Why rumors are a warning shot for Iran's Rouhani.

The possibility that Iran's controversial former president could again become a political force may be minimal, but just the idea of it, analysts say, is a tool to keep President Rouhani in check.

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Scott Peterson/Getty Images/海角大神
Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad speaks to supporters and receives letters requesting help outside his home at 'Square 72' in the working-class Narmak district of eastern Tehran, Iran, Nov. 15, 2014. Though his eight years as president ended in 2013 among a wave of political attacks at home and weariness in the West over his constant anti-Israel rhetoric and questioning of the scale of the Holocaust, Mr. Ahmadinejad and his very active supporters are raising his public profile amid rumors of a comeback run for parliament or higher office.

The morning is chilly and still dark at 6:25 a.m. when the first disciple arrives at 鈥淪quare 72,鈥 the cramped, tree-lined roundabout in eastern Tehran where Iran鈥檚 lightning-rod former president lives humbly 鈥 and plots an improbable political comeback.

In the West, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is remembered as a fire-breathing arch-conservative obsessed with Israel鈥檚 destruction and dismissive of the Holocaust 鈥 a leader who trumpeted Iran as a superpower and harped on upending the 鈥渦njust鈥 US-led global order.

Inside Iran, his legacy is of populist politics with a rare common touch and the spending of billions on helping the poor; a man with a street-fighter style that created powerful enemies and led to charges of colossal economic mismanagement. He even聽brashly stood up to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

As dawn unfolds, children arrive at an adjacent school, filling the air with playground noise as more than a dozen of Mr. Ahmadinejad鈥檚 acolytes gather on the sidewalk to meet their hero and ask for help as indications grow he may run for parliament or higher office.

Some Iranians, like these, see Ahmadinejad as their savior, a problem-solver who can commune with the pious poor. But to his many critics, Ahmadinejad is a loose cannon whose eight years in power ended in disgrace.

So, an actual comeback? Many Iranians roll their eyes at the prospect, for a man who so tarnished the conservative brand that the centrist Hassan Rouhani swept the June 2013 elections to succeed him.

It is far from clear how far Ahmadinejad may go this time, propelled by a small but active coterie of loyalists. But his reemergence is seen by some as a handy tool to remind President Rouhani and Washington alike of the risk of failure.聽

Ahmadinejad and hard-line factions 鈥渁re elements of a game, and the director of this game is the supreme leader,鈥 says Amir Mohebian, a conservative analyst and editor.

鈥淭he signal for Mr. Rouhani is this: 鈥榊ou are not the only power in politics, you have some opposition groups, and you should compromise,鈥 鈥 says Mr. Mohebian. 鈥淎nd it鈥檚 a signal to the US and radical groups [in Congress] that, 鈥榃e have the same radicals in Iran. If you do not help Mr. Obama solve the [nuclear] program, the situation will become worse.鈥 鈥

鈥淲hat helps Ahmadinejad be a real player in this game is the weakness and faults of Mr. Rouhani,鈥 says Mohebian. 鈥淥ne of the problems of Rouhani鈥檚 strategy is a greater gap between the rich and poor. Ahmadinejad can say, 鈥業 am the face of the poor, and of the revolutionaries.鈥 鈥

That is the face the former president puts forward every morning outside his front door.

Die-hard supporters portray him these days as side-by-side with Ayatollah Khamenei in wishing to return to the original values of Iran鈥檚 1979 revolution, such as taking care of the poor and challenging the US and Israel.

鈥淗e has a bright mind 鈥撀爃e can help,鈥 says Seyed Ibrahim Azizi, whose Hemingwayesque gray beard and fisherman鈥檚 cap ward off the dawn cold. A candy shop owner who says he鈥檚 鈥100 percent鈥 sure Ahmadinejad would win a seat in parliament, Mr. Azizi adds: 鈥淗e has a vision and has a very big and over-arching thought.鈥

Wearing a light-gray herringbone woolen jacket, and his face more creased with age, Ahmadinejad steps out of his house and walks toward the line of people. He gets right to business, spending a couple minutes with each person, serious or laughing, hearing them out and taking their letters of request.

The banter was familiar during his presidency. In his first two years in office he received 7,230,286 such letters, for example, many of them answered with cash or solutions that recipients remember.

On this day, he hears about economic difficulties, and receives a letter from a young man with heavily bandaged hands. One woman says her husband was wounded by chemical weapons in the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, has lung problems, and wants to retire from his railway job so he can move to an area with cleaner air.

Ahmadinejad鈥檚 face darkens when Azizi shows him a photo of his son, shot in the spine and paralyzed during protests in 2009, when elections controversially gave Ahmadinejad a second term.

鈥淭his is my house, you can see people are standing here. Everyone is free to come,鈥 Ahmadinejad tells 海角大神, when all are spoken to. He prefers not to answer questions about a comeback.

Mohebian, the analyst, suggests that Ahmadinejad鈥檚 prospects would vanish if Rouhani reaches a nuclear deal with the US.

Powerful political forces have sought to contain Ahmadinejad. His recent attempt to set up his own university was not approved. This week his ally Saeed Mortazavi, the hard-line former Tehran prosecutor, was banned from politics for his role in the deaths of three protesters in 2009.

And few here forget Khamenei鈥檚 body language in early September, when Ahmadinejad visited the leader in hospital after he underwent surgery. Contrary to how he greeted all other high-profile visitors, Khamenei聽appeared to turn his head away when Ahmadinejad leaned over to kiss his cheek.

A poem about the visit 鈥撀爓ith a montage of the ex-president standing back, and Khamenei in his bed 鈥撀爓as published on Instagram and a Google Plus account under Ahmadinejad's name:聽

It seems I am used to this distance

I dared to come visit you

I came to show you how daring I am in the path of love

鈥淭he government is not letting him speak, but he still has that popularity,鈥 says Mohammad Hossein Heydari, editor of the pro-Ahmadinejad website dolatebahar.com. 鈥淲hile the social path is easy for him, the political one right now is pressurized and hard.鈥

鈥淎hmadinejad is the place where religion and politics intersect. He鈥檚 the person who is completely powerful,鈥 he continues, with the conviction of a true believer. The 27-year-old, with combed-back hair and a blue plaid shirt, has volunteered for Ahmadinejad鈥檚 cause for two years.

Ahmadinejad鈥檚 friends are tireless, and the former president has held or sought meetings with key figures across Iran鈥檚 political spectrum 鈥撀爄ncluding reformists.

鈥淭he relations between Ahmadinejad and the leader is way more than government 鈥撀爄t鈥檚 a relationship of the heart,鈥 asserts Abdolreza Davari, a founder of the HOMA media group. The acronym stands for 鈥淔ans of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.鈥

鈥淲e wanted to rebuild public opinion toward us,鈥 says Mr. Davari. 鈥淲e have started a process.鈥

Not all are convinced. 鈥淭he people aren鈥檛 at all the way these believers are,鈥 says one architecture student from the southwestern city of Ahvaz, appreciative of the expanded freedoms under Ahmadinejad鈥檚 successor.

Under Rouhani, the student says, he can 鈥渂reathe easier, because the morality police activities are much less. There is no chance that Ahmadinejad will come back, because people care more about less restrictions.鈥

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