Iran nuclear talks: Parties officially upbeat, but is failure an easier sell?
| Tehran, Iran
US and Iranian negotiators are putting on a brave face during a new round of nuclear talks in Vienna this week, with positions still far apart despite years of haggling and less than six weeks before a deadline to strike a deal.
Top diplomats sought to raise hopes that failure was not imminent, at least, in talks that aim to ensure Iran鈥檚 nuclear program will never produce a weapon.
But few are predicting success either, as Iran and the so-called P5+1 group continue declaring as they have for months that it is the other side that must make hard choices.
The crux is finding an acceptable balance between dialing back and capping Iran鈥檚 capacity to enrich uranium, and easing US, EU, and UN sanctions that have crippled Iran鈥檚 economy.
This round of talks in Vienna is 鈥渃rucial, because it tells if there is a way forward, or what the options are,鈥� says Ali Vaez, the senior Iran analyst for the Brussels-based International Crisis Group think tank.
鈥淭he parties still have the same amount of political will to get an agreement, [and know] this is a unique opportunity, but they simply can鈥檛 figure out a formula that is mutually acceptable,鈥� says Mr. Vaez, speaking in Istanbul.
The result is that both side鈥檚 minimum requirements 鈥渄on鈥檛 overlap,鈥� says Vaez. 鈥淔rom an Iranian perspective, the price is simply not right.鈥�
Both US and Iranian administrations have invested substantial political and diplomatic capital in a deal, and stared down critics, up until a landmark interim deal was signed in Geneva last November, and since.
But, paradoxically, as the Nov. 24 deadline approaches, both Iran and the US 鈥� thanks to virulent opposition to any deal among noisy hard-line minority factions in Tehran and Washington 鈥� may be able to sell collapse more easily at home.
鈥淭oday as things stand, failure is easy to manage for the Rouhani administration,鈥� Vaez says, referring to Iran鈥檚 centrist president, Hassan Rouhani. 鈥淭hey can go back and simply say, 鈥楾he West had excessive demands, we didn鈥檛 give up, we resisted鈥欌�� But success is more difficult to sell, because they have to explain very painful concessions that are inevitable if they want to get a deal.鈥�
Opposing demands
Iran wants all sanctions lifted, though only a suspension of the most biting measures appears to be on the table 鈥撀爉eaning the move can be quickly reversed anytime by the P5+1 group: the US, Russia, China, Britain, France, and Germany.
The P5+1 also wants Iran to make significant cuts in the 19,000 centrifuges it has installed, though only half now operate. Iran may accept some temporary lowering, but envisions an active research program and eventually a far larger industrial scale program than it has now.聽聽
鈥淭he fact that there are eye-catching disputes does not mean they can鈥檛 be resolved,鈥� Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told Iranian media. The fact that an initial two days of talks have been extended to a third day, Thursday, doesn鈥檛 mean anything 鈥減ositive or negative has occurred.鈥�
US Secretary of State John Kerry struck a similar note. 鈥淚 don鈥檛 believe it鈥檚 out of reach, but we have some tough issues to resolve,鈥� he said Tuesday. Pundits who predicted failure, he said, 鈥渒now more than I do.鈥�
鈥淲e keep chipping away,鈥� a senior US official in Vienna said Wednesday. 鈥淚n places gaps have narrowed, but the Iranians have some fundamental decisions to make.鈥�
Ayatollah Khamenei's 'red lines'
Such decisions may be constrained by the 11 鈥渞ed lines鈥� issued this week by Iran鈥檚 supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in the form of a graphic.聽A year ago he coined the term聽鈥渉eroic flexibility鈥� as the nuclear talks progressed. But Mr. Khamenei has also frequently disparaged the talks as unlikely to reach a deal, and the graphic shows how he is publicly shaping a much more expansive outcome for Iran.
The graphic said Iran鈥檚 nuclear science 鈥渟hould not come to a halt or even slow down;鈥� that no one can 鈥渂argain over鈥� Iran鈥檚 nuclear achievements; and that Iran鈥檚 negotiating team 鈥渟hould not accept any impositions鈥� from the P5+1.
It also said Iran鈥檚 鈥渇inal need鈥� to fuel its own nuclear reactors is an enrichment capacity nearly 20 times the current level. Such figures do not feature in the current talks, though a critical sticking point is how many years the deal will impose its restrictions.
And yet this week, President Rouhani said a nuclear deal was 鈥渃ertainly鈥� within reach.
鈥淭here will not be an agreement that will be acceptable to all in Iran, the US won鈥檛 accept that,鈥� says Mojtaba Mousavi, the editor of the IransView website, speaking in Tehran.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 think the Americans will agree to a good deal, and if we are obligated to conditions, it will be worse for us,鈥� says Mr. Mousavi.
And the aftermath, if the talks fail? 鈥淭his is what the Rouhani government is thinking about, day and night.鈥�
