As Iraq's politicians fumble, Iran fears its own quagmire
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| TEHRAN, IRAN
Within days of Sunni jihadists' surge across Iraq last month, 5,000 Iranian volunteers had registered to fight and defend Iraq's Shiite shrines.听
Many of them signed up via a website calling on recruits to battle "terrorists" from聽the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), which had vowed to attack every Shiite holy site in Iraq as it marched聽from Syria, south toward Baghdad. 聽
Iranian men vowed to be the first in line, one writing聽in the comments聽that his 鈥渙nly request from God is martyrdom." Another wrote 鈥渕y heart is tearing apart鈥 over Iraq.
But today the ,聽with its message of sacrifice and resistance that has inspired Shiites for centuries and defined Iran鈥檚 Islamic Republic, is blocked here 鈥 a fate normally reserved for websites critical of the regime or thick with Western culture and news.听
Iran, like the US, is struggling to determine the best course of action in Iraq.听The Sunni militants' declaration of an Islamic caliphate over swathes of Syria and Iraq 鈥 along with its ambitions to expand from Algeria to Pakistan 鈥撀爌rompted Iran to send advisors and military hardware to Baghdad.
But Tehran is leery of deeper entanglement,聽particularly if it entails a de-facto alliance with the US. And it seems unsure what its end goal should be.
鈥淭he Iranians are faced with the same dilemma that the Americans are in Iraq, precisely because the Iraqi political dynamic is independent,鈥 says Farideh Farhi, an Iran expert at the University of Hawaii now in Tehran. 鈥淪hould they push Maliki out, or should they try to convince him to be much more inclusive?鈥
Avoiding the 'Iraqi mire'
Despite its strong rhetoric, Iran鈥檚 response has so far been limited 鈥撀爌erhaps in part to avoid spurring a greater US military role. Iran has given Iraq a handful of aged Soviet-era Su-25 aircraft, the same planes that Iraq's air force flew to Iran for "safe keeping" on the eve of the 1991 Persian Gulf war.
And the Pentagon this week stated that it knew of no 鈥渞egular鈥 Iranian troops on the ground. Spokesman Rear Adm. John Kirby told a briefing that "there are some Iranian operatives 鈥撀燪ods Force operatives 鈥搃nside Iraq that are training and advising some Iraqi security forces, but more critically, Shia militia.鈥
ISIS threats to Shiite shrines are a deliberate provocation and Iran should avoid overreacting, says Davoud Hermidas Bavand, a political analyst in Tehran.
鈥淭o drag Iran into the Iraqi mire wouldn鈥檛 serve Iranian interests. It is going to be a long skirmish and it might go far beyond Iraq,鈥 says Mr. Bavand. 鈥淪o if they are intelligent enough, of course [Iran] should not be dragged in.鈥
This desire to limit entanglement may explain why the Iranian recruiting website is now officially blocked.
Reining in the volunteers
Iran鈥檚 history with ad hoc militants over the last decade is one of restraining them, not unleashing them.听
When Israel and Hezbollah fought a devastating war in 2006, media reports said Iranians were volunteering to be suicide bombers. In the end, none were sent. The head of Iran鈥檚 Basij militia said聽the volunteers聽had no official sanction and 鈥渕ight be well-intentioned but their methods are not right.鈥
Likewise, during Israel鈥檚 incursion into Gaza in 2008-09, several hundred radical student volunteers arrived at Tehran and other airports, demanding to be deployed.听Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei聽himself thanked the 鈥渆nthusiastic youth鈥 for their willingness to sacrifice, but sent them home.
鈥淥ur hands are tied,鈥 Iran鈥檚 supreme leader told the would-be fighters. 鈥淚f we could be there, [and] we were needed to be there, then we would surely be there and not pay attention to anyone, but it is not possible; everyone must know that.鈥
Neither of those conflicts with Israel involved defending Shiite shrines right across Iran's border. Still, the fact the recruitment site is blocked indicates a similar caution about sending ad hoc militants to Iraq.
Conspiracy theories
While the US and Iran both firmly oppose ISIS, top Iranian officials have pointed out that the group聽began to flourish anew as part of a Sunni anti-Assad rebel force backed by the US and its Persian Gulf allies.
Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian that 鈥渢he brains behind these [ISIS] operations are in the US intelligence system,鈥 and that ISIS 鈥渆njoys聽the聽financial, intelligence and logistics support鈥 from the US and its allies.听
鈥淲e have emphasized frankly that we see no necessity for cooperation [with the US] because we do not trust Americans鈥 behavior and intentions in the region,鈥 Mr. Amir-Abdollahian .听
Yet at the start of the Iraq crisis a month ago, President Hassan Rouhani said the US and Iran could work together in Iraq. And this week former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani reportedly said there is 鈥渘o obstacle鈥 in joining the US on the 鈥渃ommon issue [of] fighting terrorism鈥 in Iraq.
ISIS challenges Iran both ideologically and strategically, with its anti-Shiite and anti-Iranian agenda, says Kayhan Barzegar, director of the Institute for Middle East Strategic Studies in Tehran.听For this reason, he says, Iran will continue its its independent effort in Iraq, though the crisis has not become so grave that direct US-Iran liaison is necessary.
鈥淚t is very possible that Iran and the US will try to cooperate via the Iraqi government, not directly, but indirectly,鈥 says Mr. Barzegar. 鈥淏ecause at the end of the day, it is in Iran鈥檚 interest and the US interest, and this is a common interest, to not let Iraq鈥檚 unity be in danger, and to not let the terrorists come back.鈥
Still, the conspiracy theory has gained popular traction in Iran, fed by politicians, senior military聽officers, and the media. The defense minister calls ISIS a US plot with the 鈥淶ionist regime鈥 to weaken anti-Israel resistance. Fars News claimed last week that 鈥渓ots of evidence鈥 鈥撀爏uch as ISIS never attacking US embassies 鈥 proves ISIS is 鈥渋nclined toward鈥 the US.
鈥淲hen I talk to people in the streets, everybody thinks that Israel is behind this 鈥 I鈥檓 not joking,鈥 says Mr. Farhi. 鈥淐ertainly they say: 鈥楥ome on, you can鈥檛 have a group of rag-tag militants [threaten Iraq]; somebody is behind this.鈥"