Iraq crisis could make US, Iran allies
| Istanbul
With the call to arms today by Iraq's most revered Shiite cleric, the crisis in Iraq threatens to become an even broader regional sectarian conflict. But it could also bring about unusual cooperation between the US and Iran, who have a mutual interest in stemming Sunni militants' lightning advance across Iraq this week.
In a statement read at聽Friday聽prayers, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani called upon all able-bodied Iraqi Shiite men to fight, saying they were duty-bound 鈥渢o bear arms and fight terrorists鈥� in defense of their people and holy places. Those who died in the fight would be 鈥渉onored鈥� as martyrs, he said.聽
Within an hour volunteers were gathering and being sent to Samarra, 70 miles north of Baghdad, where the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) clashed with the Iraqi Army this week. In February 2006, the destruction of the聽Askari shrine聽there ignited a vicious sectarian war in Iraq that left tens of thousands dead.
Even then, Ayatollah Sistani never issued such a call to arms. But the disintegration of Iraqi Army units,聽exposing聽the ineptitude of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki鈥檚聽Shiite-first聽leadership and deepening Iraq鈥檚 ethnic and religious divisions,聽makes this instance more grave for Iraqi Shiites.
The blitzkrieg by ISIS 鈥撀燽acked by angry Sunni tribes disenfranchised by Mr. Maliki鈥檚 rule, and even Saddam-era officers 鈥撀爃as upended political calculations from Washington to Tehran, where the presidents of both the United States and Iran separately pledged support.
鈥淭hey鈥檝e all been playing with fire, and now they have a bonfire. And I don鈥檛 see any one of them having enough water to put it out,鈥� says Rouzbeh Parsi,聽an Iran-Iraq specialist now at Lund University in Sweden.聽
The result may be a 鈥渂izarre鈥� situation in which the US and Iran find themselves on the same side, due to the acuteness of the crisis.
"If they want to save Iraq they are going to have to work together,鈥� says Mr. Parsi.
鈥淭he US is not going to put any troops on the ground. When it comes to whatever troops聽are聽on the ground, it鈥檚 going to be the Iranians who are going to help out, to make sure [Iraqis] stay where they are supposed to stay, and shoot in the right direction,鈥� he says. But the US聽will likely help with air strikes and intelligence, so 鈥渙ne way or another, [the US and Iran] are going to have to get in touch," Parsi adds.聽
鈥淲e can work with the Americans to end the insurgency in the Middle East,鈥� a senior Iranian official told Reuters. 鈥淲e are very influential in Iraq, Syria and many other countries.鈥�
US, Iran make moves
The Pentagon today announced it was moving an aircraft carrier into the Persian Gulf, although President Barack Obama said the US would not take military action without an Iraqi plan for national reconciliation.聽The State Department said today the US 鈥渋s not talking to the Iranians about Iraq."
Meanwhile, Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, commander of the聽elite聽Qods Force branch of Iran鈥檚 Revolutionary Guard, was reportedly in Baghdad in recent days, coordinating with Iraqi officials. The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran has already deployed two Qods Force units to Iraq, citing Iranian security sources.聽Iranian officials publicly denied those claims.聽Other reports from Iran suggest that Iranian drones have also been deployed.
ISIS spokesman Abu Mohamed al-Adnani said the Sunni militants would march on the 鈥渇ilth-ridden鈥� shrine city of Karbala, and the 鈥減olytheism鈥� city of Najaf 鈥撀燽oth among the holiest sites in the world for Shiite believers 鈥撀爄n order to 鈥渟ettle our differences鈥� with Maliki.
The threat to Samarra and anti-Shiite rhetoric from ISIS comes as Shiites mark the birthday of the Shiite Messiah, the 12th聽Imam called Mahdi.
Prior to Sistani鈥檚 call to arms today, influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr 鈥撀爓hose Mahdi Army militia once fought US forces before it was disbanded 鈥撀爏aid a Shiite 鈥減eace brigade鈥� should be formed to defend holy shrines.
Questionable unity
The ISIS advance聽may have unified long-bickering Shiite factions in Iraq, many of them unhappy with Maliki鈥檚聽rule. But it has also driven deeper the divisions between Shiites, disgruntled Sunni Arab tribes, and ethnic Kurds. With Sunni militias moving south toward Baghdad, and Shiite militias and volunteers moving north, it is not clear how this transformative week in Iraq will play out.
鈥淯nifying the Shiites is easy, that鈥檚 not the art,鈥� says Parsi. 鈥淭he art lies is unifying Iraq. And so far they haven鈥檛 managed to produce a politician who is capable of that.鈥澛�
Militias 鈥渃an come into the fray and perhaps mobilize people to fight. But that was never a difficulty in Iraq 鈥� there was always someone to raise a flag鈥nd get a couple people to tag along with their Kalashnikovs,鈥� says Parsi.
鈥淭he question now is, can any of these people present a picture that looks like co-existence afterwards?鈥�
