海角大神

A transnational jihadist group now controls a swath of territory across northern Iraq and Syria, creating a de facto Sunni Islamic 鈥渃aliphate鈥� in its wake as it pushes south toward the Iraqi capital of Baghdad.

The group, the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIS)聽endangered the oil refinery of Baiji and聽yesterday聽seized Saddam Hussein鈥檚 hometown of Tikrit,聽80聽miles northwest of Baghdad. The advances聽came聽just a day after ISIS shocked observers by easily taking full control of Mosul, one of Iraq鈥檚 largest cities, where Iraqi soldiers trained聽and equipped聽by the US shed their uniforms as they fled. On Thursday the militant group claimed to have surrounded Samarra, bringing it closer to Baghdad.聽

ISIS is dramatically changing the map, often seizing ground without a shot being聽fired, and working with other Sunni militants and Saddam-era military officers.

It is a聽鈥済olden moment鈥� for ISIS聽鈥渂ecause their whole idea is based on territory; every [captured] city becomes an emirate,鈥� says Fawaz Gerges of the London School of Economics, an authority on Al Qaeda and other jihadist groups.

鈥淢ilitarily, territorially, financially and practically speaking, ISIS鈥� Islamic State is very much nearing genuine realization,鈥澛爏aid聽Charles Lister, a specialist on insurgent groups at the Brookings Doha Center,聽in a tweet after the fall of Mosul.聽

Al Qaeda outgrowth

ISIS is an outgrowth of Al Qaeda in Iraq, which reached its peak amid the Iraqi civil war but was severely weakened by the time the US left in 2011. Al Qaeda in Iraq eventually broke with Pakistan-based Al Qaeda central and renamed itself the Islamic State in Iraq 鈥� stressing its intent to create a caliphate as soon as possible inside the country.

That effort failed, but the dream did not, and when the war against President Bashar al-Assad broke out, the group expanded its vision to become the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. Disavowed聽earlier this year聽by Al Qaeda's central leadership for its brutality to local populations聽and fierce anti-Shiite sectarianism,聽ISIS gradually worked its way back across the border into Iraq,聽capitalizing on political and social divisions exacerbated for years by the heavy-handed sectarian rule of Iraq鈥檚 Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.

鈥淎l-Maliki鈥檚 authoritarian tactics, the way he has mismanaged both the security forces and the political system 鈥撀爃is role is pivotal, in allowing [ISIS] space and shelter, and also in motivating, providing ammunition to disaffected Sunnis to join,鈥� says聽Mr.聽Gerges.

Mr. Maliki聽has聽called on Iraqis to 鈥渞egain the initiative鈥� and said the fall of Mosul would be reversed. 鈥淓ven if the battle is a long one, we will not let you [Iraqi citizens] down, because we are facing a ferocious terrorist campaign,鈥� he said.

One draw for ISIS is the relative simplicity of its ideology, compared with other Islamists, says Hassan Hassan, an analyst at the Delma Institute in Abu Dhabi. 鈥淭he fact that ISIL has already announced an 鈥業slamic State鈥� that Muslims can join, and fight for its survival and expansion, appeals to a considerable number of people 鈥� even though its brutal tactics have alienated others,鈥� . 鈥淚SIL is quietly expanding its following in the villages and towns dotting the Iraqi-Syrian border mostly because of the perceived reality of an Islamic state."

Proximate enemies, proxy war

In contrast to Al Qaeda central and Yemen-based offshoot Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, which have聽concentrated on distant enemies such as the US, ISIS and other jihadists in Syria and Iraq focus on proximate enemies, such as Mr. Assad and Maliki.

鈥淚raq right now is a proxy for Iran,鈥� David Phillips, a former senior adviser to the US State Department, told the BBC.聽鈥淐ountries like Saudi Arabia, which oppose Iran鈥檚 influence, are supporting these extremist groups in order to limit Iraq鈥檚 power, and to try to put the brakes on Prime Minister Maliki鈥檚 grab for a third mandate as prime minister. So Iraq is a battleground between Sunni and Shia, as it has been all along.鈥�

Their aim, said Mr. Phillips, is to use a caliphate that does not recognize formal borders as a 鈥渓aunching point for radicalization through the region."

For the fighters themselves,聽the idea of a national home is dissolving as they push for that broader Islamic state.聽There have been reports of some burning their passports in Syria.

鈥淓verybody鈥檚 renouncing their affiliation with their countries, because we are now trying to establish the caliphate. 鈥� Our citizenship means nothing to us anymore,鈥� a British foreign fighter by the name of Abu Sumayyah al-Britani said from the northern Syrian town of Idlib, of 鈥淭he ISIS Show,鈥� posted by EAWorldview.聽

Even the Syrians, the ISIS fighter said, are 鈥渄istancing鈥� themselves聽from their national identity.聽The porousness of the Syria-Iraq border 鈥撀爐hrough which ISIS drove some of the US-made hardware it captured in Mosul into Syria 鈥撀爃as reinforced that point. The Economist 聽that ISIS has some 6,000 fighters in Iraq and 3,000 to 5,000 in Syria, among them 3,000 foreigners.

Extreme violence stirs challenges

Although ISIS can draw on the "deep rift" between Sunnis and Shiites, their track record in Syria 鈥渟hows how they are their own worst enemy," Gerges says. Any level of violence is acceptable because 鈥渢hese limited victories all accumulate to bring about the Islamic caliphate as a strategic goal," he explains.

The group's extreme violence in Syria 鈥� beheadings and public crucifixions, directed at rival Islamist rebel groups, as well as civilians聽and suspected 鈥渢raitors"聽鈥� prompted other Islamist groups to take them on. Their path mirrored that of Al Qaeda in Iraq in 2006 and 2007, whose brutality spurred many Sunnis of Anbar Province to聽challenge them themselves, with US help.

Though gaining territory in Iraq, ISIS is already sowing the 鈥渟eeds of their own self-destruction,鈥� Gerges says. 鈥淭he question is: How long will it take? And how much damage will it do in the meantime?鈥�

The crisis, ironically, could be a wake-up call to unify Iraqis.

Maliki 鈥渋s the leader, he is the strong man, he built himself up as the most qualified 鈥撀爄n fact the only one 鈥撀爓ho could take [ISIS] on, and it exploded in his face,鈥� adds Gerges. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 why there is hope 鈥� that this really scary, dangerous moment will serve as a catalyst to bring Iraqis together, to begin the process of reconciliation.鈥�