Breadwinners return empty-handed to Yemen, Arab world's poorest country
| Sanaa, Yemen
Yemen is poised to lose millions of dollars in remittances while reabsorbing up to 200,000 newly unemployed workers as a result of Saudi Arabia's decision to expel tens of thousands of Yemeni guest workers.听
A聽surge in the聽number of cash-strapped families and competition for already scarce jobs appears inevitable. An uptick in the number of unemployed men provides fertile ground for militant recruitment 鈥� a cause for concern far beyond the Arabian Peninsula.听
The way Saudi officials spin it, it鈥檚 simply a matter of closing loopholes in laws governing guest workers and streamlining bureaucracy. But as streams of deportees continue to be sent home, they鈥檝e inflamed longstanding resentment of Yemen鈥檚 northern neighbor.
Yemenis have traditionally flocked to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, fleeing high levels of unemployment (35 percent in 2003) to take advantage of job opportunities created since the discovery of oil in other parts of the Arabian Peninsula. Remittances, the money sent home by expatriate workers, are the virtual backbone of the Yemeni economy, contributing聽roughly $2 billion each year,聽constituting a bit more than 5 percent of Yemen's GDP.听
And while聽more聽than one million Yemenis were expelled from Saudi Arabia in 1990 in response to Yemen鈥檚 perceived support for Iraq during the first Gulf War, more than a million Yemenis still work in Saudi Arabia today.
Long one of the poorest country鈥檚 in the Arabian Peninsula, Yemen鈥檚 economy聽took a further hit from the turmoil caused by its 2011 uprising, which spurred the end to longtime leader Ali Abdullah Saleh鈥檚 three decades in power,聽as unemployment surged and foreign investment dipped.听The power vacuum that ensued has been a boon for militant and separatist groups across the country.
Many have raised fears that Saudi Arabia's deportation will end up affecting more than just the Yemeni economy. In popular memory, the deportations of 1990 are often tied to the outbreak of the 1994 civil war.
In Yemen鈥檚 far north,聽near the Saudi border,聽clashes between the Zaidi Shi鈥檃 Houthis, a rebel group that controls the bulk of the border province of Saada, and local Salafis have raged for more than two weeks. With deportees streaming across the border and through the province, it seems nearly inevitable that some of the newly destitute men will be pulled into the fighting.
On top of that, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula remains a strong presence, and allegedly recruits among men struggling to make ends meet.听
鈥淪ome [of the deported workers] will be convinced to fight with the Houthis; others will be convinced to fight with the Salafis. Others will get recruited by Al Qaeda,鈥� said a Yemeni official, speaking on the condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the topic. 鈥淭he rest will return home, jobless鈥攕omething that is enough of a disaster in itself.鈥� 聽
Even before 2011, Yemen鈥檚 oil rich neighbors聽were considered a聽potential solution to pervasive joblessness: a government-commissioned report drawn up by international consulting group McKinsey & Company the previous year聽listed聽increasing the number of Yemeni laborers in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States as a key means for stabilizing the nation鈥檚 economy.听
Brandishing the report,聽many Yemeni officials have expressed hopes that neighboring states would open their doors to unemployed Yemenis as a way of aiding the government鈥檚 efforts to get things back on track. Saudi Arabia pledged $3.25 billion in financial aid in May 2012.听But if claims of solidarity and support are more than rhetoric, analysts argue, nations like Saudi Arabia should be welcoming new guest workers rather than enacting stricter labor laws and cracking down on those already there.听
鈥淭he economic impact of this event will be profound 鈥� not just due to the lost jobs themselves, but because many of the workers had shops [in Saudi Arabia] and were supporting large families back home,鈥� says Abdulghani al-Iryani, a Sanaa-based political analyst. 鈥淭he effects will cancel out 鈥� by many folds 鈥� the effects of any Saudi financial aid to Yemen.鈥�
