Iraqis struggle to keep Syria's war out
| Baghdad, Iraq
In a recent video produced by a Syrian jihadist group, several men believed to be members of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria stop three Syrian truckers transporting goods through Iraq鈥檚 Anbar province, which borders Syria.
The Sunni militiamen quiz the truckers about how they pray, trying to determine if the men are Sunnis or Shiites 鈥� the two Muslim sects have slightly different prayer practices.聽 When their answers reveal them to be Alawites, a Shiite offshoot predominately loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the gunmen force the three men to kneel on the side of the road before executing them.
Scenes of sectarian violence like this one used to be common聽in Iraq during the peak of its civil war聽in 2006 and 2007. Though Iraqi society never really healed and the country remains a violent place, the situation appeared to be improving up until the point the civil erupted next door.聽
As Syria鈥檚 civil war drags into its third year, Iraqis fear that their fate may be inextricably linked to their neighbor鈥檚. Iraq鈥檚 Sunnis and Shiites back rival sides in the conflict, militants from both groups have crossed the border to fight on behalf of their allies, and many now worry that it鈥檚 only a matter of time before Syria鈥檚 civil war engulfs Iraq,聽which was only beginning to recover from its own war when the anti-Assad uprising began.
鈥淲hat鈥檚 happening in Syria is contributing to the issue of sectarianism, unfortunately, which we believe can be very catastrophic, not only to Iraq but to the whole region,鈥� says Ayad Allawi, a prominent Iraqi politician and former prime minister. 鈥淎lready we have a sectarian political landscape prevailing here in this country.鈥�
Bringing war home
Iraq鈥檚 population is predominantly Muslim, and divided between Sunnis and Shiites. Sunnis enjoyed an outsized influence in government during the rule of Saddam Hussein, himself a Sunni. After the American invasion, Shiites were given a greater share in the Iraqi government and now many Iraqis accuse Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki of trying to consolidate power for his fellow Shiites and exclude Sunnis.
Last December, thousands of Sunnis in western Iraq鈥檚 Anbar province protested, alleging that they were being ignored by the Maliki government.
Syria鈥檚 civil war has evolved along similar lines. The opposition is made up primarily of Sunnis who were discriminated against by Assad鈥檚 Alawite government. When the uprising turned violent, some of Iraq鈥檚 Sunnis began crossing the border to fight alongside the rebels. Shiites sided with Assad and also started sending fighters.
Many Iraqis now fear that these fighters may return to Iraq when the Syrian conflict ends,聽bringing war with them. In July, Al Qaeda organized a jailbreak from the notorious Abu Ghraib prison that freed at least 250 militants. Among Iraqis, there鈥檚 much speculation many of these militants who were not recaptured have gone to fight in Syria, says Nada Ibrahim Aljubori, a member of the parliament's foreign affairs committee.
鈥淭here are a lot of e-mail messages that say Al Qaeda coalitions are sending messages to Iraq saying that when we finish in Syria we will come back to Iraq to get rid of this government and of all politicians and we will fight in Iraq,鈥� she says. 鈥淪ectarian tension in Iraq is very high. If it continues like this, I鈥檓 afraid Iraq will go to a civil, sectarian war.鈥�
Embracing Al Qaeda
Even without the traffic of militants moving between Iraq and Syria, the outcome of the Syrian war is of serious concern to Iraqis.
The removal of Assad would almost certainly result in a Sunni government in Syria,聽disrupting the region's balance of power between Sunnis and Shiites.聽The discord already prevalent among Iraq鈥檚 Sunnis, many of whom have family and tribal ties to Syrians just across the border, would make it easy for any new Sunni government in Syria to gain influence and potentially incite unrest in Iraq.
鈥淪unnis are feelings oppressed by Maliki and they鈥檙e opening up their areas to Al Qaeda again,鈥� says Yassen S. Al-Bakri, a professor of political science at Nahrain University in Baghdad. 鈥淚f Al Qaeda-linked groups topple the regime, Maliki is concerned that they will make a conservative Sunni government that will be actively involved with Anbar and make difficulties for Iraq.鈥�
Amid this climate, there is growing concern among Iraqi Shiites that an American intervention that either weakens or removes Assad could be disastrous for Iraq.
If Assad鈥檚 government appears to be on the verge of collapse, Iraqis say they worry that Iran, a close ally of Assad, would try to send more resources through Iraq to the Syrian government. This could in turn create clashes with Sunni groups. Already, some analysts speculate that recent bombings targeting Shiite areas in Baghdad could be retaliation for the Shiites'聽support of the Assad government.
鈥淚f we don鈥檛 isolate Iraq from Syria, Iraq will always be in danger and the future will be unpredictable,鈥� says Ihssan al-Shamari, a professor of political science at Baghdad University. 鈥淚f we put the Syria issue aside, Iraq will have a future one day, but it will take decades and decades to achieve this.鈥�
