海角大神

Iran鈥檚 President-elect Hassan Rohani is saying all the right things to the 50.71 percent of Iranians who voted for change in mid-June elections: He promised again today to ease censorship and social and Internet restrictions, and to restore 鈥渕utual trust鈥� between the people and clergy.

鈥淎 strong government does not mean a government that interferes and intervenes in all affairs [and] that limits the lives of the people,鈥� Mr. Rohani told fellow clerics in Tehran.

Rohani said it was 鈥渘ot possible鈥� to attract Iran鈥檚 young society with 鈥渉arsh views,鈥� nor with state television that broadcasts a panda birth in China but ignores protests by unpaid workers. The speech comes after Rohani also vowed to correct the 鈥渋mbalanced鈥� application of Iran鈥檚 Constitution in an interview with a youth magazine.

鈥淭he freedom and rights of people have been ignored but those of the rulers have been emphasized,鈥� Rohani told the weekly, Chelcheragh. 鈥淩estricting [people鈥檚 right] to criticize will only stifle and lead to inefficiency.鈥�

But even as the centrist politician seeks to reassure moderates in Iran, what of the conservative 鈥減rinciplist鈥� and hardline factions that were defeated by Rohani鈥檚 shock first-round win?

Still stunned by the defeat of their own five candidates, they are licking their wounds, and warning that Rohani鈥檚 new cabinet should not include 鈥渟editious鈥� members of the opposition 2009 Green Movement, which would invite chaos and a violent response.

There has been a swift reaction to these warnings, however, evidence that Iran鈥檚 post-election debate is signaling a new moderation from both the left and the right. Indeed, while Rohani speaks of civil liberties and 鈥渕ore transparency鈥� in nuclear talks, he also has clear public support from the most powerful in the regime: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guard.

鈥淚ranian state and society has no place for radicalism now,鈥� says a political analyst in Tehran who asked not to be named. 鈥淭he atmosphere in Iran today is more than an alliance, it is kind of accepting a coexistence with each other,鈥� she says. 鈥淎s for radicals, I believe that the leadership is willing to control them, not only [Khamenei] but principlists [conservatives] who support Rohani are not going to allow radicals to do whatever they like.鈥�

(For more insight on Rohani, read Scott Peterson's report on the president-elect and what it means to be a centrist in Iran.)

The vigilante tool

Small but persuasive in their use of violence, hardline vigilante groups such as Ansar-e Hezbollah were deployed frequently in the 1990s and early 2000s to signal their dissent to reformists during the presidency of Mohammad Khatami. Wielding clubs and chains, they broke up political meetings and student protests during the Khatami era. Years later, in 2009 they were sent out again 鈥撀燼longside Basij militia and other security forces 鈥撀爐o crush post-election street protests.

In a bid to avoid a renewal of such violence, even as Rohani promises an end to the 鈥渟ecuritized atmosphere鈥� and less-tight social strictures, other moderate voices are also making themselves heard.

In one explicit warning to Allah Karam, the leader of Ansar-e Hezbollah, the Alef news website of prominent conservative lawmaker Ahmad Tavakoli wrote: 鈥淲e should hope that the sword which has come out of its scabbard [will] return back in, so that a country finally seeing some happiness wouldn鈥檛 fall into chaos.鈥�

The Alef warning stated: 鈥淪urely those friends [Ansar-e Hezbollah] that always displayed loyalty to the Leader 鈥� should show loyalty today as well and prevent Iran from becoming a country where politics are determined in the streets.鈥�

Rohani鈥檚 victory was greeted with euphoric scenes in the streets, a waving of ribbons and flags of the purple color chosen by his campaign. The symbolism was similar to the 鈥済reen鈥� campaign of 2009 that saw millions of Iranians take to the streets in protest over election fraud, and two Green Movement presidential candidates, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karrubi, placed under house arrest.

All eyes on the cabinet picks

Rohani has promised to seek their release sometime after he is inaugurated on Aug. 3. But the decisions he makes now about the political breadth of his cabinet are likely to determine the scale of the challenge of reining in the most radical elements on both sides.

Rohani鈥檚 victory 鈥渨as a phenomenon,鈥� says Hamid Reza Jalaiepour, a sociologist at Tehran University and adviser to former president Khatami, in a telephone interview.

鈥淭he mainstream of reformists became happy, moderate conservatives became happy, many in the middle class became happy, and even villagers became happy,鈥� says Mr. Jalaiepour, a former US hostage-taker during the 1979 Islamic revolution, and later an editor of reformist newspapers that were shut down.

鈥淭he level of rationality of the Iranian people was very high during this election,鈥� says Jalaiepour, noting that 鈥渢his election was clean鈥� compared with 2009, and that the hardline reaction 鈥渋s not clear yet.鈥�

鈥淥ne of the important factors is that Ayatollah Khamenei didn鈥檛 tell to any hardliner to 鈥榙o something,鈥� 鈥� adds Jalaiepour. 鈥淭his decision of Ayatollah Khamenei was very important, and for this reason hardliners couldn鈥檛 manipulate everything. But we should stay, and wait鈥�. It is hopeful for the future, but needs more time.鈥�

Warning against 'well-known reformist figures'

The hardline Kayhan newspaper 鈥� whose editor is an official representative of Khamenei 鈥� this week warned Rohani not to bring into his cabinet 鈥渨ell-known reformist figures,鈥� if they have not publicly denounced what it called the 鈥淎merican-Israeli plotted sedition鈥� of 2009. Kayhan also criticized Rohani for thanking Khatami for his campaign endorsement, saying it 鈥渆xacerbates concerns that Dr. Rohani might neglect the danger that the leaders and agents of the [2009] sedition could pose for his administration.鈥�

Yet Kayhan has also backed Rohani, and those warnings are likely just part of the post-election debate about Rohani鈥檚 win, and the political balance he aims to achieve with a cabinet that is 鈥渂eyond factions.鈥�

鈥淚 think these people want to warn Mr. Rohani not to get close to extreme reformists, but I see no reason for it, because he wouldn鈥檛 do such a thing,鈥� says Amir Mohebian, a conservative editor and analyst, in one interview published this week.

鈥淭he principlists should avoid self-deception and accept defeat responsibly and realistically and enter a phase of harsh self-criticism 鈥� to understand what has stopped them,鈥� said Mr. Mohebian, an editor of Resalat newspaper, in another interview. 鈥淚f they do not 鈥� they will lose the future鈥�. [B]laming others will not solve their problem.鈥�

Time to reflect?

Tehran University political scientist Sadiq Zibakalam also had a direct message for the leader of Ansar-e Hezbollah, when he examined the election results.

鈥淚t is better for Mr. Allah Karam and his like-minded [hardliners] to reach a conclusion about the past and the present and ask why their candidate and his ideas have received 4 million votes while their opponent has won 18 million votes,鈥� Mr. Zibakalam was quoted as saying on the Fararu.com website. 鈥淯nfortunately 鈥� they have not understood that people voted for moderation, rationality and collective wisdom and denounced Allah Karam鈥檚 threats to make chaos.鈥�

For many Iranians, the sense of positive change brought by the election result is palpable, for now.

鈥淭he last four years [under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad], we were living in a closed atmosphere,鈥� says Khatami adviser Jalaiepour. 鈥淭here is a new atmosphere. These days if you go to a shop, or to a university, the atmosphere has been changed, compared to one month ago. This is very important.鈥�