海角大神

Talks on Iran's nuclear program made unexpected progress in Kazakhstan,聽reaching聽what Iran called a potential 鈥渢urning point鈥� to limit its most sensitive nuclear work in exchange for modest sanctions relief.

Tehran reacted positively to a revised proposal that聽eases demands聽from six world powers聽on Iran's聽20 percent uranium enrichment and its deeply buried Fordow facility.

The concession caught Iran's attention. It is now being asked to "suspend" its 20 percent enrichment and can use its uranium stockpile already enriched to that level for nuclear fuel. It also only needs to modify equipment at Fordow 鈥� not close it down permanently聽鈥撀爏o that the facility cannot quickly and secretly resume operations there.

Those steps are the first from the United States and other world powers to diverge from demands laid down last spring 鈥� and rejected ever since by Tehran 鈥� to completely stop 20 percent enrichment, ship out its stockpile, and shut Fordow for good. That proposal also offered no reciprocal concessions on easing sanctions. 聽

The P5+1 group (the US, Russia, China, Britain, France, and Germany)聽said it was waiting for action, not words, but聽Iranian diplomats hailed a 鈥渟ofter鈥� and 鈥渟marter鈥� approach from聽the P5+1 and sought to portray it as proof that sanctions pressure had failed to work.

The new offer was 鈥渃loser鈥� to Iran鈥檚 position and 鈥渕ore realistic comparing to what they said in the past,鈥� Iran鈥檚 chief negotiator Saeed Jalili told journalists after the two-day talks ended yesterday.聽

鈥淚f this is a sign of a change of strategy 鈥� we believe this is a momentum and a turning point,鈥� Mr. Jalili said.

Jalili later told 海角大神 in an interview, 鈥淲hat is important today is we repeated our advice to them that the strategy of pressure is wrong and could not bring any results.鈥�

A different reading

Iran鈥檚 positive assessment was not matched by that of the P5+1, whose diplomats would only say talks were 鈥渦seful,鈥� and did not amount to a 鈥渟oftening of position.鈥�

鈥淐oncrete results鈥� will matter more than atmospherics in handling 鈥渢he most destabilizing and urgent elements of Iran鈥檚 nuclear program,"聽said a senior US diplomat.

Diplomats on both sides cautioned that a 鈥渓ong road鈥� lies ahead to find any deal that can satisfy all. The P5+1 wants to cap Iran鈥檚 nuclear advances, and ensure the Islamic Republic will never have nuclear weapons. Iran wants its 鈥渞ight鈥� to peaceful nuclear power recognized, and all sanctions lifted.

The聽new聽P5+1 package includes no easing of debilitating oil or financial sanctions聽that have choked the lifeblood of the Iranian economy and severely restricted all financial transactions.聽Other measures on the table, however,聽鈥渁re meaningful and would be of substantial benefit to Iran,鈥� said the American diplomat.聽

鈥淲e recognize [the revised P5+1 offer]聽as a modest initial measure 鈥� that does not address our full range of concerns,鈥� said the US diplomat. The aim was to 鈥減ut time on the clock to reach the comprehensive agreement we all seek.鈥�

Both sides will convene for technical聽meetings聽in Istanbul, Turkey,聽on March 18 and for another full round of talks in Almaty, Kazakhstan,聽on April 5- 6, picking up the diplomatic pace after an eight-month gap.

Steps only Iran can take

Iran said it was not deterred by what it called the 鈥渧ery small steps鈥� of sanctions relief on offer, such as resuming trade in gold and precious metals, and petrochemicals. It is likely to ask for more at the Istanbul talks.

鈥淚t is not important that these steps are small,鈥� Jalili told the Monitor. 鈥淭he important thing is that those steps should be balanced. A response to a small step is a small step. We have a readiness for taking longer steps.鈥�

Jalili said that Iran has already taken a number of steps that the P5+1 has not responded to.

鈥淪ome of the confidence measures that we have taken are unique,鈥� Jalili told the Monitor. He lists as most important a fatwa against nuclear weapons by Iran鈥檚 supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has repeatedly rejected the bomb as un-Islamic.

Another step is conversion of a substantial portion of Iran鈥檚 20 percent stockpile 鈥撀燿etailed last week in a report by United Nations nuclear inspectors 鈥撀爄nto oxide for fuel. That makes it very difficult to now use in any weapons push.

鈥淲hat we said [to the P5+1] was we have taken several steps 鈥� we didn鈥檛 enter into the details 鈥� of these types of confidence-building measures,鈥� said Jalili. 鈥淲e have taken a lot, [and] they should respond.鈥�

The senior US official says the fatwa and 20 percent conversion are both 鈥渦seful鈥� steps, but that those signals do not count so clearly as confidence-building measures in the P5+1 process.

鈥淣either of those things solve the underlying issue here, which is, in the first confidence-building measure: halting the [20 percent] enrichment 鈥� dealing with the stockpile, and dealing with Fordow.鈥�

鈥淲e may have changed the way it all looks, but the overall effect of it is quite substantial,鈥� says the US diplomat. 鈥淲e have listened to their concerns. We have tried to put a meaningful, fair, and balanced package on the table.鈥�

A 'softer' tone

For the Iranians 鈥� whose leader Mr. Khamenei has recently lambasted the negotiations and increasing sanctions pressure as a plot to destroy the regime 鈥� the P5+1 change was palpable.

鈥淭he fact that they didn鈥檛 ask to close Fordow and stop all enrichment is a big achievement,鈥� said an Iranian diplomat, noting a six-month timeline for these initial steps put forward by the P5+1. 鈥淭heir tone was softer, more realistic, and smarter. But as Mr. Jalili said, there is a long way to go.鈥�

UN Security Council resolutions require Iran to stop all enrichment, until questions are resolved about alleged past weapons-related work.聽That applies to the 20 percent level 鈥� which is just a few technical steps away from being turned into bomb-grade 鈥� as well as Iran鈥檚 much wider-scale enrichment to 3.5 percent purity, to fuel power reactors.

The revised P5+1 proposal uses careful language to achieve some of those ends, but in a more face-saving way. Iran is聽now asked聽to 鈥渟uspend鈥� 20 percent enrichment, and agree to 鈥渟ignificantly restrict the accumulation鈥� of that material, says the American diplomat.聽Intriguingly, that is to be done 鈥渨hile enabling the Iranians to produce sufficient fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor,鈥� which still requires fuel made from uranium enriched to 20 percent,聽adds the American.聽

Fordow 鈥� a small facility monitored by UN inspectors but impregnably buried beneath a mountain 鈥� would need to be altered to 鈥渃onstrain the ability to quickly resume operations there,鈥� says the senior US official.

Enhanced inspections by the UN would also be required, to 鈥減rovide early warning of any attempt to rapidly or secretly abandon agreed limits and produce weapons-grade uranium,鈥� the US diplomat says.

The Kazakh venue is especially relevant: More than two decades ago, the newly formed nation gave up its own nuclear weapons soon after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

President Nursultan Nazarbayev last year called on Iran to limit its nuclear ambitions: "Kazakhstan's experience shows that nations can reap huge benefits from turning their backs on nuclear weapons," he wrote in The New York Times.

Iran had dates ready for the next two stages 鈥� a signal of interest that surprised P5+1 diplomats聽because determining past times and venues took聽weeks of haggling.

鈥淭heir answers are now closer to our ideas,鈥� said Iran鈥檚 deputy negotiator Ali Bagheri, who will lead the聽next round of聽technical talks in Istanbul. 鈥淔or these ideas to come even closer, we need a meeting to make them more active.鈥澛�