Given the likelihood of a strong military retaliation 鈥� from not only the US, but European countries 鈥� Iran is unlikely to actually follow through on its threats. As the Monitor notes, its military spending is a fraction of US and European spending, and blocking the waterway would bring substantial force down on Iran.
The Iranian navy , based in Bahrain and counting 20-plus ships, combat aircraft, and more than 15,000 American troops, Reuters reports.
Although the waterway is narrow, tankers still have a substantial amount of navigable water outside the four-mile channel, and would surely scatter their routes if it became necessary, Foreign Policy points out. Commercial shippers would adapt, as they did during World War I and the 1980s, when both Iran and Iraq were targeting tankers.
Additionally, the Strait is too broad for a mine field 鈥� Iran鈥檚 arsenal is too limited for the mines to be planted with a high enough density to affect massive tankers.
