海角大神

Just one day after Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh proposed sweeping reforms that would change the country鈥檚 constitution and transform the government into a parliamentary system by 2012, nearly 100,000 people gathered on the streets outside Sanaa University calling for his immediate resignation.

鈥淪ix months ago we might have accepted a plan like this. But this is a way for [Mr. Saleh] to stay in power,鈥� said Yousef al-Ward, an opposition demonstrator from the nearby village of Beni Hushaish. 鈥淲e want a new government 鈥� without him in it.鈥�

Friday鈥檚 demonstration, the largest to date in Yemen鈥檚 capital, was marked by a fearless defiance after protests turned violent earlier this week. On Tuesday, security forces opened fire on protesters, injuring dozens and killing one. Rubber bullets, live rounds, and tear gas were fired at demonstrators, who were attempting to push back security lines and expand the area where thousands have been camping out for weeks.

The rapid growth of the opposition in recent weeks has increased the pressure on Saleh to either yield to or confront the uprising. However, the surge in numbers has also brought tension to the opposition itself.

Despite the fact that the students, Islamists, tribesmen, and political leaders that make up the opposition are united in calling for the fall of the regime, their perspectives diverge sharply when it comes to how that should be done and what should come next. Without a coherent plan, the opposition may be creating opportunities for other groups to seize control of the country.

鈥淪ome of the tribes and Islamic sheikhs may have plans to try to jump into power,鈥� says Abdul-Ghani al-Iryani, a leading political analyst in Sanaa.

Fault lines on women's rights, role of Islam

As the demonstrations continue into their second month, fault lines among the opposition are becoming increasingly apparent 鈥� especially on fundamental issues such as the type of freedom desired and the prominence of Islam in a future system.

Most Yemenis protesting at the university simply label their desired changes as democratic reforms, although the exact meaning of those reforms remains a subject of debate.

鈥淭he idea of democracy is not clear to people here,鈥� says Adel al-Surabi, a spokesman for Sanaa鈥檚 youth movement, which began the protests in January. The movement, which has been adamant in demanding Mr. Saleh鈥檚 immediate departure from office, has yet to express a vision beyond the collapse of the government.

鈥淚 don't think a real democracy is possible, but we want something better than what we have now,鈥� says Mr. Surabi. Most Yemenis, he says, are unprepared to break from traditional elements the country鈥檚 societal structure.

鈥淭hey say they want to be free like some countries in the West, but then if you asked them if they want their sister or their wife to have that same kind of freedom, they would say no. They want a free country, but not for women.鈥�

'We look to Islam to correct these problems'

One woman already challenging traditional roles is protest leader Tawakul Karman. Her prominent position and liberal views have made the 32-year-old mother of three not only a symbol of the movement, but a magnet for conflict. She was the specific target of violence at numerous early protests, escaping into cars under hails of stones and bottles when pro- and anti-government demonstrators clashed.

鈥淭he youth aren鈥檛 thinking about what鈥檚 after Ali Abdullah Saleh,鈥� says Mrs. Karman, who is a member of the Islah party. 鈥淲e鈥檙e looking to build a civil democratic country, a government that is on an equal level with its free people.鈥�

For Mrs. Karman, part of creating that sort of freedom comes from rethinking the role of Islam in politics.

鈥淢ost of the movement doesn鈥檛 want religion to have the same role that it has in the current regime. This regime deals with religion as a way to oppress people,鈥� she says, adding that she hopes that in the next system, religion will be a choice for people but not part of the country鈥檚 law. Article 3 of the current constitution states that sharia, or Islamic law, is the source of all legislation.

But Yemen is among the most conservative countries in the Muslim world, and many of those in the opposition, including other Islah party members, see today鈥檚 uprising as an opportunity to increase the role of Islam in politics.

鈥淥ur country has fallen into a pattern of corruption and injustice,鈥� says Mohammad al-Izaj al-Sulehi, an Islah parliament member representing the Dhamar region. 鈥淲e're asking for democracy, but this is a Muslim country, and we look to Islam to correct these problems.鈥�

What the tribes want

Last week, renowned cleric and Islah member Sheikh Abdel Majid al-Zindani joined the protesters, and in a speech, called for the institution of an Islamic caliphate.

Mr. Zindani, designated a terrorist by the US government for suspected ties with Al Qaeda, has been a polarizing figure in Yemen鈥檚 uprising.

The cleric鈥檚 speech seems to have been particularly divisive among the country鈥檚 various tribes. While some tribe members from Marib have come out in support of the notion of Islamic rule, tribesmen from other regions have sharply opposed it.

鈥淭he people are not with Sheikh Zindani,鈥� said Mohammed al-Buhaiti, a tribesman from Al-Haddad. 鈥淲hat we want is a stable civilian government.鈥�

The tribes are looking towards the government for basic necessities, like electricity and schools, says Mr. Buhaiti. Stagnant development and a lack of employment has caused many tribes to turn against the current regime, he says.

鈥淩ight now the relationship between the government and tribes is unstable and could explode at any moment.鈥�

Power struggle between Saleh, tribes?

Those specific tensions have become a cause of concern, particularly in light of the fractured nature of the opposition. In the absence of a clear plan, many fear that a violent power struggle would ensue between the military and the country鈥檚 tribes if the president were to step down immediately.

A number of Saleh鈥檚 relatives hold key posts in the Yemeni military, including the president鈥檚 son Ahmed, who heads the Republican Guard and Special Forces.

鈥淭he way I see it, Saleh only has one option, and that鈥檚 to organize an orderly departure," says Mr. Iryani. "If he doesn鈥檛, it will be very bloody.鈥�