Are Yemen's protests going to bring another revolution?
| Sanaa, Yemen
Two days after Yemen鈥檚 political opposition called for a national uprising against the leadership of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, thousands of protesters took to the streets in the capital city of Sanaa, calling for the removal of what they view as a persistently corrupt regime.
A crowd of men, wearing pink bandanas in support of Tunisia鈥檚 recent revolution, flooded the streets in four different locations in Sanaa. They waved Yemen鈥檚 red, white, and black flag and carried posters that read, 鈥淲e鈥檝e had enough suppression," "We鈥檝e had enough corruption,鈥� and 鈥淲e are next鈥� 鈥� written above a picture of the Tunisian flag.
鈥淚 am here today to express that we need a change in the president, that we refuse corruption, and that we are against constitutional changes that will allow the president to be president for life,鈥� says Ali Al Hossany, an employee at Yemen鈥檚 education ministry.
But while protesters have drawn inspiration from Tunisia's revolution, the real effect of Yemen's protests is likely to be more modest than regime change. Rather, Yemen's coalition of opposition parties seeks to tap the post-Tunisia revolution energy in Yemen to pressure the ruling party to make reforms that they had sought months before the Tunisian uprising began.
鈥淭here is no reason for this protests to development into a movement that could bring trouble to the regime,鈥� says Abdulghani Al-Iryani, an independent Yemeni political analyst. 鈥淭he police have been very responsible and constrained. If they continue like that, that鈥檚 a good sign.鈥�
鈥淸T]o stop these demonstrations the ruling party needs to go back to the negotiating table,鈥� he says. 鈥淭he ruling party can give concessions that will satisfy the demands of JMP without even threatening its dominant position in parliament and political life. I think the positive result [of the protests] will be that the regime will call for national dialogue.鈥�
Regime change is unlikely
Despite the fierce anti-Saleh rhetoric, today鈥檚 demonstrations in Sanaa were peaceful and lacked a heavy police presence 鈥� unlike Egypt's recent protests. One policeman relaxing inside his armed vehicle parked on the perimeter of one of today鈥檚 protests was preoccupied with reading the demonstrators' pro-opposition pamphlets.
The tone of the protest in front of Sanaa University was almost celebratory 鈥� traditional Yemeni music and dancing intermingled with opposition leaders鈥� speeches. Members of the political opposition spoke of the need for peaceful and democratic change, not violent revolt.
鈥淲e want real democracy, in a peaceful way. And we are against the continuation of Saleh鈥檚 authority,鈥� says Ali Huraibi, journalist and member of Yemen鈥檚 socialist party.
The reality is that regime change is unlikely for this country, the poorest in the Arab world, says Gregory Johnsen, Yemen expert at Princeton University.
鈥淎lthough [today鈥檚 protests] were certainly an echo of Tunisia, Yemen still has quite a way to go before we see the level of unrest of that brought down Ben Ali's government,鈥� says Mr. Johnsen. 鈥淥ne key indicator will be when we start see crowds of this size organizing in multiple cities throughout Yemen outside of the umbrella of the opposition.鈥�
No one wants an uprising
The most pressing concerns causing friction between the ruling party and the opposition are proposed constitutional amendments that would abolish presidential term limits and the timing of the upcoming parliamentary election in April. The entire opposition has refused to take part in the elections if they are not postponed.
No parties involved want to see clashes in Yemen like there have been in Tunisia and Egypt, particularly not the United States government, which has an vested interest in keeping Yemen stable. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the Yemen-based organization that claimed responsibility for two major attack attempts against the US, has already taken advantage of the insecurity in Yemen鈥檚 countryside by setting up a base in areas outside of government control. There鈥檚 fear that chaos, even if brought on by pro-democracy uprising, makes it easier for Al Qaeda to operate in the country.
鈥�Washington is worried about political upheaval in Yemen because it isn't sure what would happen next,鈥� Johnsen said. 鈥淎nd given the last two attempts by AQAP to attack the US homeland, the government has to concern itself with how Al Qaeda could take advantage of any potential chaos in Yemen.鈥�
