As sanctions loom, is Iran sending peace signals to the US?
| Istanbul, Turkey
Iran鈥檚 triumphant anti-American rhetoric may have hardly changed.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei declared on Monday that countries around the world 鈥渢hirst鈥� for Iran鈥檚 message of 鈥渧alues, humanity and deliverance of nations from the grip of domineering powers.鈥�
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad recently announced, 鈥�Iran is the world鈥檚 most powerful country, and they [Western powers] themselves admit this.鈥� He routinely proclaims that the US, West, and its capitalist ways have 鈥渃ollapsed.鈥�
But behind the usual high-pitched pokes from Tehran, analysts say several Iranian actions signal a serious desire to resolve the nuclear standoff 鈥� and perhaps even to find a limited rapprochement with arch-enemy America.
The Iranian olive branches, they cite:
- Iran's acceptance of a nuclear fuel swap deal.
- Allowing the visit by mothers of three American hikers imprisoned in Iran.
- Mr. Ahmadinejad's visit to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) talks this month.
Are those Iranian signals real? And is the United States listening?
Amid the current US push for more UN sanctions, Washington may not perceive these as significant efforts by Iran.
鈥淗ere they hope the US would take [Iran's] actions more seriously than words,鈥� says a political analyst in Tehran who asked not be named for security reasons. Iran鈥檚 hard-line leadership 鈥渕ay try to pacify this potentially destructive enemy [the US], so that they [Iran's leaders] feel reassured about their future.鈥�
Tehran's leaders are not just concerned about sanctions. On Monday, The New York TImes reported that Gen. David Petraeus last September ordered a 鈥渂road expansion of clandestine military activity鈥� in the Middle East that 鈥渁ppears to authorize specific operations in Iran.鈥� And the Iranians haven't forgotten that President George Bush, whose officials routinely spoke of 鈥渞egime change鈥� in Iran, authorized $400 million in secret funding to weaken the Islamic Republic.
鈥淥nce and for all, they [Iran's leaders] want to do away with this existential threat,鈥� says the Tehran analyst. 鈥淲hen you have an enemy which you just can鈥檛 ignore, what are you supposed to do? Are you going to take it on in a suicide attack? Or try to appease it, and make it friendly in a face-saving way?鈥�
As viewed from Tehran, positive Iranian steps in recent weeks include Iran鈥檚 decision to embrace a nuclear fuel swap deal 鈥� a plan to export 1,200 kg of Iran鈥檚 homemade low-enriched uranium. Iran rejected a similar plan last October, when it was backed by the US and the UN, but accepted it last week after intense mediation with Turkey and Brazil.
But Washington鈥檚 鈥渁nswer,鈥� as described by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, was that the permanent five UN Security Council members had agreed on 鈥渟trong鈥� sanctions package against Iran.
(Any intended outreach toward the US was not extended to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who on Wednesday came under strong personal attack from Mr. Ahmadinejad for Moscow鈥檚 support for further sanctions against Iran.
鈥淭oday it has become very difficult to explain Mr. Medvedev鈥檚 behavior to our people,鈥� said Ahmadinejad. 鈥淲e hope Russian officials will pay attention, make amends, and not make Iranians put them in the line of their historic enemies.鈥�
The Kremlin reacted angrily: 鈥淎ny unpredictability, political extremism, lack of transparency or inconsistency in decision-making鈥s unacceptable for Russia,鈥� foreign policy advisor Sergei Prikhodko said in a statement. 鈥淣o one has ever managed to retain their authority through political demagoguery.鈥�)
Another positive step toward the US was Iran's 鈥渉umanitarian鈥� decision to give visas to the mothers of three Americans imprisoned in Tehran, who visited earlier this week. The American families and US officials say the three are innocent hikers who strayed across the border from Iraq; Iran鈥檚 intelligence chief calls them spies that can be exchanged for several Iranians in American custody.
Also on the list of steps that Iran sees as positive: Mr. Ahmadinejad鈥檚 presence in New York at the opening of the NPT conference earlier this month. Though he accused the US of being a global 鈥渘uclear criminal,鈥� he also spoke well of Americans. During an ABC-TV interview, he wished the audience 鈥渁 life filled with health, and joy.鈥� He said: 鈥淲e鈥檙e also friends of the American people.鈥�
US officials did not hide their unhappiness with Ahmadinejad鈥檚 last minute decision to take part. But Tehran鈥檚 view was that the president 鈥渞ushing to the States every now and then giving an olive branch to the American people鈥� should have been welcome, says the analyst.
Still, those actions were accompanied by two sets of large-scale Iranian military exercises, and little discernable let-up in anti-US rhetoric from other senior Iranians.
Search for a path out of US cross hairs
鈥淒eep down there seems to be a consensus 鈥� at least within the [ruling] system 鈥� that they should [work to resolve] the nuclear issue,鈥� says an Iranian political science professor who recently left Iran and asked not be further identified.
鈥淥n the US, there is still disagreement among players,鈥� says the professor. 鈥淏ut I think Ayatollah Khamenei has pretty much accepted [it] and given his blessing to a very modest rapprochement or reach out to the US. But the game might change, [and] you can鈥檛 expect this will go through.鈥�
The debate in Tehran has been about current risks to the Islamic Republic, and how to ease them. Internally, politics were thrown into chaos after an election last June that officially granted a second term to Ahmadinejad 鈥� along with a coterie of fellow neo-conservatives and supportive hard-line Revolutionary Guard commanders.
Weeks of protest over what was widely seen as a fraudulent election left scores if not hundreds dead, and thousands of opposition supporters behind bars. The violence also caused divisions within Iran鈥檚 leadership that meant critical strategic decisions 鈥� such as those about Iran鈥檚 nuclear program, or any thaw with the US 鈥� were difficult to make and to abide by.
But government repression has largely succeeded in sweeping deep-seated unhappiness from public view, and last February the regime declared victory over the opposition Green Movement.
The 鈥渃ase has been made to everybody [in the ruling elite] that these are dangerous times, you have to play it carefully,鈥� says Farideh Farhi, an Iran specialist at the University of Hawaii. One former senior Iranian diplomat close to Khamenei, she notes, wrote that 鈥渢here is no time to play politics with this and the next few months are going to be a period of very intense negotiations.鈥�
The outcome will depend not just on Washington鈥檚 response, but also on Iran鈥檚 fundamental calculations.
Divided leadership priorities
鈥淚鈥檝e been told that Mr. Ahmadinejad doesn鈥檛 want to solve the nuclear file, but wants to solve the Iran-America problem. And Khamenei is the opposite: he wants to solve the nuclear file, and doesn鈥檛 want to do the US-Iran relationship,鈥� says Farhi, of her sources in Tehran.
鈥淭here鈥檚 a very clear worry [that] if you improve relations with the United States, then the kind of forces that come with integration will ultimately undermine the Islamic Republic. That fear is there; that fear in many ways is justified,鈥� says Farhi.
The result is that two middle positions are 鈥渟truggling for ascendance in Iran,鈥� she adds. One position would ensure the Iranian moves are purely tactical, to ease the immediate threat of sanctions 鈥� or a military strike 鈥� from America or its allies, such as Israel.
The other position calls for 鈥渂alance鈥� but 鈥渘ot becoming friends,鈥� says Farhi, and aims to achieve a 鈥渓arger strategic objective of placating the US, and turning animosity to [a] neutral relationship.鈥�
Speaking on Wednesday in Iran鈥檚 southeast pistachio heartland of Kerman, Ahmadinejad told Washington that the nuclear swap deal is a chance that should not be missed.
鈥淚f they (the US and its allies) are truthful when they say they seek cooperation鈥hey should accept this offer,鈥� the Iranian president said. 鈥�Mr. Obama must know that this proposal is a historic opportunity鈥� (Obama should) know that if this opportunity is lost, I doubt the Iranian nation will give a new chance to this gentleman in the future.鈥�
Iran's leaders "have realized that they cannot win a war fought on two fronts,鈥� says an Iranian journalist in Tehran who asked not to be named. 鈥淭hey know that if they have the international scene covered, they can pretty much get away with anything domestically.鈥�
The result? 鈥淭hey do actually want to mend ties with the US, at least for the short term 鈥� if not mend, at least keep it from escalating,鈥� says the journalist. 鈥淭hey need to bring calm to the international front, so they can fight the domestic front with more ease.鈥�
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