海角大神

Egypt鈥檚 Muslim Brotherhood will name a new leader on Saturday after its first leadership vote since 1994, ending a divisive election period that laid bare divisions between so-called conservatives and reformists in the Arab world's largest opposition group. Then, it will be official: Former veterinarian鈥檚 union chief Mohamed Badie will take over as the organization's Supreme Guide.

The change in leadership also includes a shift on the Brotherhood鈥檚 governing Guidance Bureau, where conservatives recently unseated prominent reformists. The upheaval comes at a delicate time, with increasing signs that that 81-year-old Mubarak's son, Gamal, is being groomed to succeed him in a presidential election scheduled for next year.

Mr. Badie is expected to consolidate conservative influence within a group that has been subject of a withering government crackdown in recent years. His election has sidelined a younger generation of reformers who had hoped to transform the stodgy Brotherhood from an organization focused on religious outreach and social welfare projects into something more like a modern political party. The Brotherhood is technically banned by the Egyptian government but is officially tolerated.

Brotherhood leaders, including ousted reformers, insist little will change under the new command, which will continue to control 20 percent of Parliament.

鈥淚f you monitor the Brotherhood鈥檚 activities you will see that they are going to continue as they have been,鈥� says Essam El Erian, the one well-known reformist to win a seat on the Guidance Bureau. 鈥淭he new Guide will not add or take away anything.鈥�

But others worry that the new conservative leadership will alienate young, reform-minded members by making the movement less inclined 鈥� or less capable 鈥� of political activism against the 28-year-old regime of President Hosni Mubarak and could lead to a splintered and weak Islamic opposition.

Egypt鈥檚 government has come down hard on the Brotherhood since 2005, imprisoning thousands since election wins made it a major player in Parliament. This month鈥檚 internal vote was meant to show off the group鈥檚 democratic bona fides, but that display has been muddied by infighting among the leaders and uncertainty about the future.

Surviving, not winning

In addition, the new leaders lack political experience, says Khalil Al Anani, an analyst at the government-linked Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies. After years of government repression, Mr. Anani expects their primary interest will be in keeping the organization alive and its members out of jail.

鈥淭here is no indication that they have the ability to build coalitions with other political parties in Egypt,鈥� he says of new leaders like Badie who have had little public role until now. 鈥淭heir main goal is the survival of the movement.鈥�

The Brothers appear divided over issues of both style and substance, with lines drawn over social issues like the political role of 海角大神s and women and organizational issues like coalition building and how to interact with the media.

Abdel Moneim Mahmoud, a journalist at the independent daily Al Destour and once a high profile Brother with a blog entitled 鈥淚 am a Muslim Brother,鈥� says the biggest source of conflict was the group鈥檚 2007 political party platform, which 鈥渟aid the Brothers would accept a Coptic 海角大神 or a woman running for President.鈥�

It was the first party platform ever presented by the group, but was withdrawn 鈥渢o change some of these progressive ideas,鈥� says Anani. It has not been reissued since, and observers say the new leadership is in no rush to either raise these issues again or make noise about trying to form a legal party.

鈥淐onservatives are interested in political engagement but are not as capable of it,鈥� says Ibrahim Houdaiby, a political analyst and former Brother. 鈥淭hey have less experience of working and interacting with people who are not Muslim Brothers.鈥�

Like many current and former Brothers with reformist leanings, Houdaiby points to ousted Bureau member Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh as a leader who was comfortable working across ideological lines.

Aboul Fotouh himself says the group will not radically change and that the real problem is Egypt鈥檚 oppressive stance towards the Brotherhood, including a ban that's been in place since 1954. Such measures 鈥渓ead to the presence of some narrow-minded people in our organization,鈥� he says.

鈥淭here are people who are so narrow-minded and conservative about so many things that they scare everyone away,鈥� he says. 鈥淭hey say everything is haram,鈥� or religiously forbidden.

Battle for the mainstream

Mahmoud takes the ouster of men like Aboul Fotouh as evidence a consensus among conservatives that they were 鈥渘ot really committed to the principles of the organization.鈥�

Assem Shalaby, head of the Brothers media office, sums up this attitude when he calls the terms "conservative" and "reformist" inaccurate.

鈥淲hat is more accurate is to say that some in the group, like Aboul Fotouh and El Erian, have a long history of working outside the Brotherhood framework,鈥� he says.

But the election has raised questions about where the Muslim Brothers want to put their focus: political activism against the Mubarak regime, the spiritual improvement of the members, or a little bit of both?

Both conservatives and reformists see themselves as representative of mainstream Brotherhood opinion.

鈥淚 represent the mainstream of the Muslim Brotherhood,鈥� says Aboul Fotouh, who says the mainstream is 鈥渕oderate鈥� and 鈥渓ikes to communicate with society and the other.鈥�

But Shalaby says that balancing 鈥減ublic work and organizational work鈥� is the 鈥渆ssence鈥� of the Brotherhood, and that reformists like Aboul Fotouh have shirked their internal responsibilities.

It is that tension that Anani says could weaken the organization going forward, as conservative leaders focus on organizational goals and reformists push for activism against the regime.

鈥淭he next general guide will be weak and won鈥檛 have the ability to control the movement,鈥� he says.

But Houdaiby strikes a more optimistic tone. He thinks the Brotherhood could grow from these divisions as 鈥減eople start to think critically about what they want from the organization and its leaders鈥� it could make them feel a greater stake in it. The real question is: Will these two wings be able to adopt a clear and unified strategy for change?鈥�