Majority of Americans reject new US-Afghan security pact: poll
A large majority of Americans do not favor the new strategic听partnership with Afghanistan signed during a surprise visit to Kabul听last week by President Obama.
By a margin of 63 percent disapproval to 33 percent approval, respondents rejected a听description of the deal that will include a US troop presence and听billions of dollars in monetary support for Afghan forces in the听decade after 2014, according to a Monitor/TIPP poll conducted April 27听to May 4.
Unusually for a key issue facing Americans in an election year, the lack听of support was bipartisan, showing only small differences across the ideological spectrum. However, with few national politicians听dissenting on the broad outlines of the Afghanistan policy, the popular听unhappiness has few immediately discernable political consequences.
Some of the polling was done before Mr. Obama had a chance to outline听his case for the deal in a national televised address on May 1, the anniversary of the killing of Osama bin Laden.
In that address, Obama presented the partnership as enabling a听withdrawal of most US forces by 2014 while still safeguarding听Afghanistan in the long-term from a return of Al Qaeda.
鈥淭he agreement we signed today sends a clear message to the Afghan听people: As you stand up, you will not stand alone,鈥� said Obama.听鈥淲ithin this framework, we will work with the Afghans to determine听what support they need to accomplish two narrow security missions听beyond 2014: counterterrorism and continued training.鈥�
Under the 10-year agreement, US forces would have access to Afghan听bases beyond 2014 for training Afghans and hunting Al Qaeda. The US commits to ask Congress annually to help pay for Afghanistan鈥檚听security forces, whose cost outstrips the country鈥檚 budget.
The agreement does not spell out US troop numbers or dollar figures.听However, estimates for the yearly cost of sustaining the Afghan forces envisioned after 2014 are upwards of $4 billion. US and Afghan听officials have suggested the US will pay several billion dollars a听year annually, with the rest coming from the Afghans and from NATO听辫补谤迟苍别谤蝉.
In his address, Obama conceded Americans were tired of the war.听鈥淥thers will ask why we don鈥檛 leave immediately. That answer is also听clear: we must give Afghanistan the opportunity to stabilize.听Otherwise our gains could be lost, and Al Qaeda could establish itself听once more.鈥�
Since the summer of 2010, however, tracking polls from the Pew听Research Center show a majority of Americans want US troops to come home from Afghanistan 鈥渁s soon as possible鈥� rather than stay 鈥渦ntil the听situation is stabilized.鈥� Pew鈥檚 most recent poll in mid-April found a听60 to 32 split for leaving now.听That split resembles closely the new Monitor/TIPP poll on the听strategic partnership deal.
Respondents in the TIPP poll were asked: 鈥淭he US plans to remove most American forces听from Afghanistan by 2014. To help Afghanistan after 2014, the US will听sign a 10-year deal that keeps some US troops there and the US will听also spend several billion dollars a year on the Afghan military. Do听you approve or disapprove of such US involvement in Afghanistan beyond听2014?鈥�
Among Democrats, 13 percent strongly approved, 17 percent somewhat听approved, 19 percent somewhat disapproved, and 46 percent strongly disapproved. Among Republicans, the percentages skewed only slightly听more positive, 15, 22, 20, and 38, respectively. For independents, the听percentages were 12, 21, 15, and 49.
The margin of error was plus/minus 3.3 percentage points.
Few discernible trends were noted between races, genders, or types of听hometown. Older Americans were substantially more likely to strongly disapprove of the deal. Cohorts under age 45 registered strong听disapproval in the 30 percent range, while more than 50 percent of听those over 45 strongly disapproved.
Such broad dissent raises questions about whether the president has a听democratic mandate to commit the US to a long-term deal. But the most contentious issues 鈥� troop numbers and dollar figures 鈥� will involve听consulting Congress.
Despite its unpopularity, America鈥檚 longest war has not stirred the听intensity of passions that surrounded the Iraq war. Only small numbers听have taken protests into the streets, with expressions of dissent听mostly limited to social media efforts from groups like Rethink听Afghanistan.
War protesters and members of the Occupy movement are planning to converge on Chicago ahead of a NATO听summit on Afghanistan scheduled for May 20. At that summit, the US will ask its NATO partners to commit to covering some of the costs of听Afghan security forces post-2014.
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