British politicians push for more North Sea drilling. Would that lower energy costs?
| Manchester, England
The United Kingdom currently faces some of , and the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran means that more people than ever are feeling the pinch.
And for an increasing number of British politicians 鈥撀燼nd one American president 鈥撀爐hose energy woes have an obvious solution: .
As costs rise, the center-right Conservative Party and the right-wing Reform UK have moved their positions closer to U.S. President Donald Trump. Even some in the Labour Party are weighing a move to allow new oil and gas extraction off Scotland鈥檚 North Sea coast. Wes Streeting, one of the hopefuls to replace the beleaguered Keir Starmer as prime minister, that he is in favor of granting new drilling licenses and that he thinks Mr. Starmer鈥檚 government will soon follow.
Why We Wrote This
Skyrocketing energy costs have the United Kingdom looking for solutions, and many say there鈥檚 an obvious one: more drilling for oil and gas in the North Sea. But does the data support that? And even if it did, does the public really want to 鈥渄rill, baby, drill鈥�?
鈥淲e鈥檝e also got to listen to what [the union] is saying,鈥� he told the Times. 鈥淟isten to what the workforce is saying. And listen to what the public are saying.鈥�
But while enthusiasm for tapping the North Sea might be growing among political movers and shakers, it is far from clear whether drilling would be an effective solution for British energy needs 鈥� or whether the British public even supports doubling down on fossil fuel consumption. While British politicians might be ready to embrace more drilling in the North Sea, they might prove to be courting only a small, if noisy, minority of the public.
Concerns over energy security
It is clear, experts say, that there is a growing public anxiety surrounding energy security. The start of Russia鈥檚 full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the latest conflict in the Middle East have caused several shocks to the energy market in recent years.
鈥淭here is a growing awareness about vulnerability of our energy,鈥� says Elinor Bale, a climate program officer at the Conservative Environment Network in London. 鈥淭here has been an increasing call from the public for oil and gas, very much from the Iran crisis. We鈥檙e seeing supply chains going and economic implications across the country of energy prices rising.鈥�
Given the situation, the expansion of North Sea drilling might appear to be a tailor-made solution. But while the U.K.鈥檚 energy resources in the region have been fruitful over the past several decades, they are now largely tapped out. British estimates the national supply of oil and gas left in the North Sea 鈥� including deposits that aren鈥檛 yet mature enough to be developed 鈥� to be no more than 20% of its former total. Environmental watchdogs such as the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit put the remainder .
The remaining reserves are also located in places where it鈥檚 more difficult to drill, pushing up operating costs, says Bob Ward, policy and communications director at Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change in London. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e only really economically viable when [the] market price is high, and therefore when consumer prices are high. In fact, if the price of oil and gas goes down, I鈥檓 not convinced that there鈥檒l be a huge amount of further development in the North Sea, because it鈥檚 just not seen as economically viable.鈥�
Though both the Conservatives and Reform UK promise, if elected, to increase drilling in the North Sea and repeal the government鈥檚 current ban against new licenses, neither offers details about what the results of such a shift would mean for the public or the economy. (Claire Coutinho, the Conservative shadow energy secretary, did say that a major gas field could be brought online by the end of the year, and 鈥渃ould produce enough gas to heat more than 1.5 million homes.鈥� But she did not say what that estimate was based on, or how long the proposed supply would last.)
And even if new drilling projects were developed, it鈥檚 unlikely that new licenses issued now could alleviate financial woes in the short term. , the official body charged with licensing and regulating the U.K.鈥檚 oil and gas industries, puts the average time between the discovery of fuel deposits and first production at five years.
Even if it appeared productive to explore the North Sea for more energy, polling indicates that the public is not motivated by proposals for new drilling projects. In an April 9 , 38% of people in England and Wales said they were in favor of the government鈥檚 ban on new drilling, while 39% were against.
There鈥檚 also evidence to suggest that the public would prefer to focus on renewables to secure Britain鈥檚 energy, rather than oil and gas. Respondents of British adults favored prioritizing transitioning to renewable energy over maximizing the U.K.鈥檚 existing oil and gas reserves at 62% to 26%.
鈥淚鈥檇 say that it鈥檚 a lot better to stop drilling in the North Sea,鈥� says Nicholas Baron, a university-aged Manchester resident. 鈥淚t鈥檚 partially a matter of climate science and partially a matter of this planet only has enough resources for however many people there are.鈥�
Carrying the flag for fossil fuels
Some voters are still keen to trust oil and gas, simply because they are familiar with it, says Ms. Bale, of the Conservative Environment Network. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not necessarily that there鈥檚 not support for renewables,鈥� she says. 鈥淚 think there is [support], but [renewables are] kind of that new scary thing. Oil and gas have been around for years, and people know what they get with it.鈥�
They also inspire a tinge of loyalty, she says. 鈥淭here is a patriotic feeling for some towards oil and gas. We鈥檝e seen how much it benefited our economy in the 1980s.鈥�
The right-wing Reform UK, which sees such voters as part of its key base, wants to tap into such emotions. The drilling question is being pushed by the party鈥檚 leadership as a 鈥渃ulture war鈥� issue, says Matthew Paterson, a professor of international politics at Manchester University who focuses on the politics of climate change.
鈥淚t鈥檚 lumped in with trans rights, LGBTQ stuff, anti-racism: all of that bundle of things that Reform attack routinely,鈥� he says.
This, in turn, has triggered a wider shift across British politics. The Conservatives, keen to win back voters who have drifted to Reform UK in recent years, have shifted their own position in a bid to appeal to them, including on the environment, says Mr. Paterson.
But he warns that party politics don鈥檛 necessarily reflect public attitudes.
鈥淚t鈥檚 never more than about 10% of the population 鈥� 15%, the absolute outside 鈥� for whom this sort of anti-net-zero, anti-climate action has any strong appeal,鈥� he says. 鈥淣obody is voting Reform because of their net-zero stance.鈥�
