P茅ter Magyar鈥檚 goal now is to reform Orb谩n鈥檚 Hungary. EU funds are at stake.
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Mark Sappenfield Senior global correspondent
| Berlin
The question facing Hungary鈥檚 leader-in-waiting is momentous. How do you rebuild a democracy that has been openly and systematically undermined from within for 16 years?
During his long rule, Prime Minister Viktor Orb谩n changed the structure of the constitutional court and packed it with loyalists. He dramatically curtailed independent media. And he reshaped the Hungarian economy as an oligarchy where as much as 30% of the gross domestic product runs through businesses with ties to him.
That鈥檚 just the top of the list. So where does P茅ter Magyar, the incoming prime minister, even start?
Why We Wrote This
P茅ter Magyar is set to take Hungary鈥檚 reins with the powers of a supermajority at his disposal. Experts say that he鈥檒l need it to loosen the grip that Viktor Orb谩n established on the country 鈥� and with the European Union demanding change.
The question is urgent. The Hungarians who gave Mr. Magyar鈥檚 Tisza party a decisive two-thirds majority in Parliament are expecting strong action against corruption, which was voters鈥� top issue, according to polls. The European Union, which Mr. Orb谩n repeatedly ignored and antagonized, has an Aug. 31 deadline for proof of progress.
But Mr. Magyar鈥檚 next steps also matter more broadly as countries in Europe and beyond wrestle with new strains of populism. His experience will be a crucial test of whether leaders can reestablish democratic processes or if they instead fall into the self-perpetuating cycles of personal power and revenge.
鈥淐an you avoid being trapped in your own power bubble? Can you allow some control on your own power?鈥� asks Stefano Bottoni, senior fellow at the Hungarian Academy of Sciences in Budapest. 鈥淭his is what paved the way for the gloomy situation we have in Hungary today.鈥�
The EU deadline offers Mr. Magyar a focus. The EU is withholding some 鈧�18 billion ($21.2 billion) in grants because it determined that Hungary under Mr. Orb谩n failed to reach 27 specific milestones for rule of law. If these are not met by the end of August, Hungary will lose the money permanently.
The good news for Mr. Magyar is that the EU鈥檚 milestones generally align with his own priorities domestically. These include steps to root out fraud and to ensure judicial independence. The problem is that such steps might not be easy or quick, even with a two-thirds legislative majority that can rewrite the constitution, if needed.
Mr. Magyar鈥檚 government won鈥檛 assume power until May. Until then, he is worried that ministries are even now destroying the documents that could reveal corruption. He has set up an online platform for anonymous whistleblowers, hoping to hold wrongdoers accountable even before he takes office.
Then there is the question of what he finds when he becomes prime minister. Will he have to forcibly remove all the top officials Mr. Orb谩n put in place? What about his judges?
This is probably Mr. Magyar鈥檚 top priority. Not only could Mr. Orb谩n鈥檚 loyalists be an impediment to his agenda, but they are a symbol of the regime he was elected to replace.
鈥淭he corruption was totally systemic,鈥� says Dr. Bottoni. 鈥淚t has to be addressed even if it might cause disruption.鈥�
鈥淭his is not a change of government,鈥� he adds. 鈥淚t is the start of a change of regime.鈥�
And that doesn鈥檛 even begin to address what he does about the oligarchic economic system Mr. Orb谩n established, in which certain businesses were openly favored. While there was almost certainly corruption within the system, the system itself is not illegal. That is true of much of what Mr. Orb谩n established.
鈥淚t鈥檚 more complicated than meets the eye,鈥� says Gr茅goire Roos, director of the Europe and Russia and Eurasia Programs聽at Chatham House, a think tank in London. 鈥淗e will not dismantle that web overnight.鈥�
With his supermajority, Mr. Magyar has tremendous power to force out those who block his agenda. But if he is forced to rely on constitutional reforms, they would take time.
鈥淚t would be a cumbersome, time-consuming process,鈥� says Zolt谩n 脕d谩m, a senior research fellow at the ELTE Centre for Social Sciences in Budapest. 鈥淗e won鈥檛 want to wait for a new constitution to be in place, so he would likely use some sort of extraordinary legal measure.鈥�
Most experts agree he is justified in taking such extraordinary action to undo the system Mr. Orb谩n built for his personal advantage. The processes established 鈥渋n the long run can be separate from the rules for the new appointees,鈥� says Mr. 脕d谩m.
But then how does Mr. Magyar avoid simply becoming another Viktor Orb谩n himself?
One potentially significant sign: Mr. Magyar has agreed to join the European Public Prosecutor鈥檚 Office, which means EU investigators could be a part of Hungary鈥檚 anti-corruption efforts. Mr. Orb谩n rejected the group. Joining the group would mark some check on Mr. Magyar鈥檚 power, helping him counter any perception that his agenda is mere political revenge.
There is danger ahead for Hungary, but also opportunity. 鈥淲e have to build a democratic culture that was never there,鈥� says Dr. Bottoni. 鈥淚f he can at least start doing that, we have a historic chance.鈥�
