海角大神

A meeting at the White House Friday holds the prospect of ending the cycle of wars that has rocked Azerbaijan and Armenia for more than 30 years.

Optimists hope that the two countries鈥� leaders will finally sign a long-prepared peace treaty while at the White House. Most experts, though, expect the meeting will produce instead a memorandum of understanding, with the two leaders signing the treaty only after thorny details have been worked out.

In either case, President Donald Trump will get to play the role of peacemaker.

Though Washington has played a minimal part in framing the settlement, Mr. Trump鈥檚 role is nonetheless potentially more than symbolic. A geopolitical earthquake is shaking the South Caucasus region. Russian influence has been fading for years, as evidenced by its recent inability to help Armenia, its ally, stave off a humiliating military defeat by Azerbaijan. Armenia is now looking westward for new sponsors.

Azeri analysts say they鈥檙e happy with Mr. Trump鈥檚 efforts to facilitate the peace process, as well.

鈥淭his U.S. administration is equidistant, where the former Biden administration was clearly pro-Armenia,鈥� says Ilgar Velizade, head of an association of political scientists in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan. 鈥淏ut it鈥檚 a bilateral process between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and it鈥檚 important the two sides find agreement themselves.鈥�

鈥淲e see Trump acting as a pragmatic guide who is helping Armenia to navigate itself into a new regional configuration,鈥� he says.

Riza Ozel/Dia Images/AP/File

Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an and Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev review an honor guard prior to their meeting at the presidential palace in Ankara.

The new regional order is being shaped largely by Turkey and its ally, Azerbaijan. The most potent symbol is the Zangezur Corridor, a project that would build a transport passage through Armenian territory to Azerbaijan鈥檚 ethnic exclave, Nakhchivan. The plan could expand Turkey鈥檚 scope for regional influence significantly, providing a direct connection between Turkey, the Caspian Sea, and all the Turkic-speaking regions of former Soviet Central Asia beyond.

Azerbaijan insists the Zangezur Corridor must not be under Armenian control. Reports suggest the U.S. is considering taking over management of the sensitive project.

鈥淭his will be much more than just a peace that ends the conflict, as welcome as that would be,鈥� says Sergei Melkonian, an expert with the Applied Policy Research Institute in Yerevan, the Armenian capital. 鈥淭his settlement will reshape the entire regional order.鈥�

Peace has long remained elusive in the region, despite frequent efforts by Russia, France, and the U.S. 鈥� often referred to as the聽Minsk Group. Five years ago, Azerbaijan launched a major military offensive, which drove Armenian forces out of Azeri territory they had long occupied. Then two years ago, Azerbaijan pushed aside Russian peacekeepers and occupied Nagorno-Karabakh 鈥� an Armenian enclave in Azerbaijan 鈥� forcing its population of about 120,000 to flee.

Vasily Krestyaninov/AP/File

Ethnic Armenians flee Azeri troops in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023. Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed to work toward a peace treaty, which remains elusive despite broad agreement on most issues.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan聽appears to have accepted defeat and conceded the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh and a few smaller traditionally Armenian territories. His hope is that a Western-backed peace settlement might provide his country 鈥� blockaded by Turkey and Azerbaijan since 1993 鈥� with security guarantees and opportunities to integrate with a wider world.

Two Azeri demands have held up efforts to finalize the peace:

• Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has insisted that Armenia amend its constitution to remove all references to Nagorno-Karabakh as an Armenian entity. While Mr. Pashinyan has signaled willingness to work toward that goal, he has encountered a storm of public opposition.
• Armenia has been reluctant to abolish the Minsk Group, which has monitored the conflict for decades, although it appears Mr. Pashinyan might be prepared to yield on that issue as well.

The Zangezur Corridor is a third, potentially deal-stopping issue. Despite other options, Azerbaijan insists that it cut through Armenian territory, without any oversight by Armenian border guards or customs officers. Putting it under the control of a private U.S. company would inflame Russia and neighboring Iran, and underscore Armenia鈥檚 powerlessness.

A peace treaty that leaves the corridor to future negotiations is possible, say analysts. But some Armenians say they wish things weren鈥檛 moving so quickly.

鈥淭he main thing is that Armenia鈥檚 prime minister is ready to give up part of Armenia鈥檚 territory for the sake of rapprochement with the West,鈥� says Alexander Iskandaryan, director of the Caucasus Institute in Yerevan. 鈥淭rump will take credit for the solution of all the problems. It鈥檚 a PR action for him. But we are left with many unresolved issues that cannot be settled quickly.鈥�