Ukraine鈥檚 Pokrovsk was about to fall to Russia 2 months ago. It鈥檚 hanging on.
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Howard LaFranchi Staff writer
| POKROVSK, Ukraine
Artillery shelling booms in the distance. Pyramid-shaped anti-tank cement blocks called dragon鈥檚 teeth line major streets in preparation for a potential Russian onslaught.
Pokrovsk鈥檚 schools and hospitals are closed. A general curfew starts at 3 p.m.
On his way from a quick snack run to rejoin the front-line battle just a few miles away, drone operator Max offers a grim assessment of Ukrainian efforts to stave off steadily advancing Russian forces in the embattled Donetsk region.
Why We Wrote This
A story focused onThe story of the grinding Russian-Ukrainian land battle is one of an imbalance of forces and supplies, mostly in Russia鈥檚 favor. Yet Ukraine finds ways to defy the odds, at least for a while.
鈥淲e are losing territory, that鈥檚 it,鈥� says the fatigues-clad soldier, call sign 鈥淩oland,鈥� setting down the six-pack of liter bottles of Pepsi he just purchased.
鈥淚t鈥檚 not big losses all at once,鈥� he explains. 鈥淭hey gain some ground one day and a small settlement the next. But it鈥檚 putting the pressure back on Pokrovsk.鈥�
At its peak a vibrant city of 60,000, Pokrovsk is a key railway junction critical to Ukraine鈥檚 coal and steel industries and a strategic military hub in the ferocious battle for Donetsk.
In September it appeared on the verge of falling. Russian forces were advancing to the city鈥檚 south, east, and west.
The local military administration ordered a general evacuation of civilians. Shops, businesses, and gas stations that had hung on shuttered. A city known for its rose-filled gardens turned increasingly quiet.
And yet almost two months later, Pokrovsk remains in Ukrainian hands, with nearly 12,000 resilient residents still doing their best to make their besieged, damaged, and emptied city a home.
鈥淭he pressure will return to Pokrovsk鈥�
Earlier this month the military administration ordered the city 鈥渃losed,鈥� aiming among other things to discourage residents who did evacuate from returning. But officials also announced that heating centers would be opened across the city, signaling a plan is in place to get Pokrovsk through the winter.
鈥淥f course we encourage people to evacuate, but we know some will stay. So we will be here to perform our duty as long as we possibly can,鈥� says Vasyl Rudyi, chief of Pokrovsk鈥檚 last operating fire station.
Noting that the intensity of the nearby fighting and of drone and missile attacks on the city lessened after September, Mr. Rudyi says he doesn鈥檛 expect the relative calm to continue.
鈥淭he Russians turned their attention to ... other towns south of here,鈥� he says, 鈥渂ut after their recent advances around us, I expect the pressure will return to Pokrovsk.鈥�
The amiable fire chief, who coos to a station dog named Vasia, is not alone in his pessimism.
In Washington, U.S. officials and military analysts paint a mostly discouraging picture of Ukraine鈥檚 war against invading Russian forces.
After 2023鈥檚 counteroffensive against Russian positions in occupied Ukraine failed, the war was widely judged a stalemate. But that characterization is no longer accurate, some experts say, as Russia has in recent months ground its way to significant territorial gains, advancing its stated goal of taking all of Donetsk.
According to the Ukrainian website Deep State, Russia seized nearly 200 square miles of Ukrainian territory, much of that in Donetsk, in October alone.
U.S. officials and military experts say a growing problem for the Ukrainian military is a dwindling pool of fresh recruits 鈥� a numerical disadvantage that has only been deepened by the recent arrival on Russia鈥檚 side of an estimated 12,000 North Korean soldiers.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed last week that Ukrainian forces had engaged North Korean troops in Russia鈥檚 Kursk border region. He said North Korea鈥檚 entry into the war constituted a 鈥渄angerous escalation.鈥�
Western aid and new combat units
In that context, Pokrovsk鈥檚 ability to hold on against the September onslaught offers something of a glimmer.
鈥淎ttacks on Pokrovsk stalled out over recent weeks as Russian forces got stuck and the Ukrainians improved their response to some degree,鈥� says Karolina Hird, Russia team deputy lead at the Institute for the Study of War in Washington.
鈥淩ussians have advanced amid the heavy fighting for towns and settlements to the south,鈥� she adds, 鈥渂ut that has exhausted those troops that are meant to be taking Pokrovsk.鈥�
Several factors explain why Pokrovsk has held on so far, she says.
Promised Western aid has started to arrive more regularly, allowing the Ukrainians to reduce Russia鈥檚 advantage in artillery shells and other armaments. Whereas Russia鈥檚 advantage over the summer and into September in artillery firing was around 7-to-1, Ms. Hird says, that has recently been reduced to 2-to-1.
Confirmed Ukrainian attacks on arms depots inside Russia have contributed. She also cites a Russian redirection of assets from Donetsk to areas of Kursk held by Ukrainians.
The recent arrival of new combat units also buoyed Ukrainian defenses, some say.
鈥淭he most important factor in holding the Russians back is that we were supplied with fresh units to reinforce us here while allowing some units to be rotated out,鈥� says Serhii Tsekhovskyi, spokesperson for the 59th Motorized Brigade. 鈥淲hen the Russians realized they would not be able to take Pokrovsk directly,鈥� he adds, 鈥渢hey focused instead on areas to the south. And they turned their attention to other regions.鈥�
That does not mean Pokrovsk is in the clear, he insists.
鈥淓ven with the improvement in conditions, we can say the risks to civilians still in the city are growing every day,鈥� he says. 鈥淲e understand that some people might want to stay no matter what,鈥� he adds, 鈥渂ut we try to tell them that if the aggressor does arrive, that is the most dangerous time to decide it鈥檚 time to leave.鈥�
鈥淚t鈥檚 our duty to stay here鈥�
At the Pokrovsk fire station, a crew of 82 stands ready with pump and ladder trucks 鈥� and hydraulic 鈥減illows鈥� that can lift up to 40 tons of concrete to assist in freeing trapped bombing victims.
Station chief Rudyi says firefighting鈥檚 usual risks are compounded in Pokrovsk by Russian strategies aimed at decimating emergency service providers. Russian drones regularly target firefighters answering routine calls, including a close friend who was killed responding to a grass fire in an industrial area in September, he says.
Missile and bomb attacks on civilian buildings are often carried out with what is called a 鈥渄ouble tap,鈥� he adds. A building is struck, and then a second strike lands 10 or 15 minutes later when the Russians know rescue services will be on the scene.
Pokrovsk no longer has a functioning hospital, so city residents rely on the closest medical emergency response teams stationed 12 miles away in the safer city of Dobropillia.
鈥淭hings have quieted down recently; it鈥檚 not as 鈥榟ot鈥� as it was in September,鈥� says Olha Klivkina, who manages a team of five emergency response crews and five vehicles from a Dobropillia hospital. 鈥淏ut so many of the people who have stayed in Pokrovsk and the small villages around it are the most fragile population, the elderly and the sick,鈥� she adds, 鈥渟o we feel strongly that it鈥檚 our duty to stay here and serve them.鈥�
At a sidewalk market in Pokrovsk just feet from the newly installed dragon鈥檚 teeth, resident Mykola, who offers only his first name, sighs before deeming evacuation versus staying put 鈥渁 complicated question.鈥�
On the one hand, 鈥淲e know that here there is danger; for sure life gets harder every day,鈥� he says, picking leaves out of the bins of red and green tomatoes he鈥檚 hoping to sell to augment a state pension he describes as 鈥渁lmost nothing.鈥�
But he says the number of neighbors he鈥檚 seen return after evacuating tells him there are also advantages to remaining in Pokrovsk, at least until Russian troops are on the doorstep.
鈥淗ere we have our houses and our gardens that we can eat from to stay alive,鈥� he says. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 enough to keep me here until the last moment.鈥�
Oleksandr Naselenko supported reporting for this story.
