A Kazakh Gorbachev? Why some expect change from new leader.
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Fred Weir Special correspondent
| Moscow
The result in Kazakhstan鈥檚 presidential election last weekend may have been thoroughly predictable. It was, after all, a whopping 81.3% victory for President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, anointed successor to Nursultan Nazarbayev, the ruler since Soviet times of a Central Asian republic widely viewed as a typical post-Soviet autocracy.
But some analysts say that what鈥檚 happening in Kazakhstan is not simply another case of a regime transitioning rulers while maintaining the same old order.
Rather, they suggest that an example of an old-fashioned leader turned champion of necessary change 鈥� the classic case is Mikhail Gorbachev 鈥� could be rising on the troubled steppes of Kazakhstan. Mr. Tokayev鈥檚 election, though聽 in the West as lacking competition, could herald sweeping changes, including domestic economic and political reforms, as well as a foreign policy stance that distances the country from its traditional sponsor, Russia, in favor of greater openness to the world.
Why We Wrote This
A story focused onAmid Russia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan is set to redefine its foreign relations. While Astana cannot sever its ties with Moscow, it now has an opportunity to engage more broadly with the world.
鈥淭okayev has stated his intention to make Kazakhstan a more inclusive society, more democratic, decentralize to give more functions to regions, strengthen the parliament, and reduce the powers of the presidency,鈥� says Andrey Kortunov, head of the Russian International Affairs Council, which is affiliated with the foreign ministry. 鈥淭he Russia-Ukraine conflict has also presented an opportunity to diversify Kazakhstan鈥檚 relationships, to open up the system.
鈥淭okayev has declared that his country will pursue a multivector foreign policy, which means expanding contacts with the world, not just the U.S. and Europe, but also countries like India and Turkey,鈥� Mr. Kortunov adds. 鈥淭his tendency became quite explicit after the war [in Ukraine] started, and it does pose a challenge to Moscow.鈥�
Critiquing Moscow ...
Mr. Tokayev鈥檚 call for snap elections in September was driven by the profound economic dysfunctions and inequalities that have troubled post-Soviet Kazakhstan, so severe that they triggered mass unrest, leading to a brief Russian-led military intervention in January to restore stability.
Russia鈥檚 subsequent invasion of Ukraine has been disquieting for many countries of the region, none more so than Kazakhstan, which resembles Ukraine in having a large Russian minority and post-Soviet borders that , not by the Kremlin, but many leading Russian nationalists.
Addressing the United Nations General Assembly in September, Mr. Tokayev , without mentioning Russia by name, of big powers that are undermining the reliable old international order and ushering in a 鈥渘ew, more chaotic and unpredictable one. ... The world is falling prey to a new set of military conflicts. For the first time in two generations, we face the prospect of the use of nuclear weapons, and not even as a last resort.鈥�
Analysts say that, despite growing unease in the capital of Astana with the Ukraine war, Kazakhstan doesn鈥檛 appear to be planning on a radical break with Russia anytime soon. Kazakhstan has no border with Europe, they note, while both Russia and China are immediate neighbors. And Russia, which pulled the Kazakh leadership鈥檚 chestnuts out of the fire during the January unrest, remains the country鈥檚 primary security provider. Most analysts add that much will depend on how the Ukraine war concludes.
鈥淜azakhstan adheres to a policy of neutrality, maintaining relations with both Russia and Ukraine, and adhering to the principles of territorial integrity, independence, and sovereignty,鈥� says Yury Buluktayev, an expert at the official Institute of Philosophy, Political Science and Religious Studies in Almaty, Kazakhstan. 鈥淲e can鈥檛 predict the future course of our relations with Russia until the war ends.
鈥淢eanwhile, we鈥檒l continue developing our relations in all directions,鈥� he adds. 鈥淩ecently we have discussed the idea of strategic partnership with the European Union. The multivector policy teaches that many diverse interests should be taken into account.鈥�
... But tied closely to Russia
Russia鈥檚 war in Ukraine has produced contradictory economic effects in the region. Several countries of Central Asia, including Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, used to provide millions of migrant workers to power the once-booming Russian economy. Most of those workers have now returned home amid Russia鈥檚 shifting wartime economic conditions. In their place, nearly 3 million Ukrainian refugees now get top employment priority.
鈥淜azakhstan was never a source of migrant labor for Russia, but some of our neighbors have suffered serious losses of revenue as their people are coming home,鈥� says Andrei Chebotaryov, director of Alternativa, an independent political think tank in Almaty. 鈥淲e have different economic issues as a result of Russians moving to Kazakhstan, relocating businesses here and navigating the Western sanctions regime鈥� against Russia.
In the weeks following the Kremlin鈥檚 September decree to mobilize army reservists, nearly 300,000 Russians, mostly military-aged men, poured into Kazakhstan. The Kazakh government reported in late October that it had received about 200,000 applications for individual work permits from foreigners since the Russian mobilization began.
That potentially reverses a long-term demographic trend that has seen members of Kazakhstan鈥檚 Russian minority gradually emigrate back to Russia, reducing the proportion from around 40% to 15% over about three decades. Experts say no one is sure how the newcomers may fit in, how long most of them will stay, or what the sociological consequences might be.
Thousands of Russian companies are registered in Kazakhstan聽鈥� a long-standing trading partner of Russia聽鈥� but the numbers since the beginning of the war. Businesses are scrambling to establish a base from which they can escape the scorching effects of Western sanctions while maintaining their presence in the Russian market.
Analysts say this is a huge boon for Kazakhstan, and to a lesser extent Uzbekistan, but one which has the effect of tying their economies more tightly to that of Russia. It also potentially complicates relations with the United States, which cannot be pleased to see a Kazakhstan-sized hole in the anti-Russia sanctions regime.
鈥淭he world order is changing鈥�
Another factor that effectively binds the countries of Central Asia to Moscow is the threat of instability in nearby Afghanistan. Kazakhstan and its former-Soviet neighbors are deeply dependent on Russian security protection, and most are bound organizationally into the Collective Security Treaty Organization military alliance and the economics-oriented Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which includes China and India.
鈥淚t鈥檚 just a reality that the world order is changing, but Kazakhstan remains under the influence of Russia and China, and this influence is much stronger than that of Europe or the U.S.,鈥� says Mr. Chebotaryov. 鈥淚n fact, the American influence around here has reduced a lot since they left Afghanistan.鈥�
The newly elected Mr. Tokayev must navigate this troubled landscape as he unleashes his plans to modernize Kazakhstan through what he has described as sweeping constitutional changes to create a more inclusive and democratic country. It鈥檚 being watched very closely in Moscow.
鈥淲asn鈥檛 it [Alexis] de Tocqueville who said, 鈥楾he most dangerous moment for any system is when it begins reforming itself鈥�?鈥� says Mr. Kortunov. 鈥淜azakhstan is a very complex society, ethnically diverse, big regional differences, a lot of different clans. Any transition is bound to be unpredictable and difficult. Regional stability will be deeply impacted by how it proceeds. This election was just a beginning, not an end.鈥�
