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Energy interdependence worked for Germany before Russia invaded Ukraine; now it鈥檚 clear that energy revenues help fund Russian President Vladimir Putin鈥檚 war machine. Energy independence from 鈥渋ndividual suppliers鈥� is becoming a matter of national security, says German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.聽

That vulnerability was made even more evident this month by a halt in natural gas flows from Nord Stream 1 鈥� the massive gas pipeline connecting Russia and Germany 鈥� for 10 days of scheduled maintenance. Russia only partially resumed flow today, and the European Commission President likened Mr. Putin鈥檚 actions to blackmail.聽

Germany is largely dependent on Russian energy, with half its natural gas and a third of its oil coming from that country. There鈥檚 currently no other way to quickly secure Europe鈥檚 supply of energy for heating, transportation, and industry, says the German government. But they鈥檙e trying. Leaders have decided to build liquefied natural gas terminals, which opens up new energy supplies but also raises a bevy of questions about Germany鈥檚 energy security.

How realistic are Germany鈥檚 plans to switch to LNG as a replacement for Russian gas?聽

Nuclear energy has been phased out, and renewables such as wind aren鈥檛 yet ready to pick up the slack, so lawmakers have decided that LNG is the answer to Germany鈥檚 energy crisis. They鈥檝e announced plans to build two domestic LNG terminals, which re-gasify the supercooled form of natural gas that arrives on ships. Leasing floating terminals and securing supply via terminals elsewhere in Europe is also in the works. Essentially, Germany is trying to buy whatever it can, from wherever it can.聽

The short-term fear is that energy supplies will need to be rationed as Europe heads into winter, which means industry won鈥檛 get what it needs while households could be without heat when they need it the most. At the most extreme, rationing and skyrocketing gas prices could result in deaths among lower-income households during the brutal winter. With the high stakes, EU lawmakers are working urgently to shore up reserves. They have also been working with Qatar 鈥� a dictatorship 鈥� as a possible future supply of LNG.聽

It鈥檚 still unclear whether LNG will do the trick, as Germany鈥檚 dependence is so 鈥渕assive,鈥� says Axel Ruppert, project manager focusing on peace and security issues at Rosa Luxemburg Stiftung鈥檚 Brussels office. 鈥淢any people within German government are scratching their heads to work out the whole interrelation of supply that鈥檚 there, the energy shifts that will be needed, and the terminals that are required, the prices demanded [by LNG suppliers], and the timeframe in which this can all happen.鈥�

Does building LNG terminals聽push Germany further away from a聽green energy transition?

LNG is a fossil fuel, and building LNG terminals doesn鈥檛 bring Europe鈥檚 largest economy聽any closer to carbon neutrality or meeting the Paris climate agreement. But analysts say lawmakers aren鈥檛 abandoning their environmental goals.

Consider the fact that the Germans aren鈥檛 willing to sign traditional long-term LNG supply contracts, which are typically 25-30 years in length, says Henning Gloystein, director of energy, climate, and resources for Eurasia Group. Instead, officials are lobbying for contracts of eight to 12 years, to enable an easier transition to hydrogen as part of future gas supply.聽

鈥淚f you look at the fixed LNG terminals that the Germans will build 鈥� that will almost certainly be designed in a way that they can be transferred and switched to importing liquid ammonia in the future, which can then be cracked into hydrogen gas and fed into the system,鈥� says Mr. Gloystein.

The government has also said it would bring forward its 100% renewables target by five years to 2035. Doubling down on natural gas will create 鈥渁 short term increase on emissions,鈥� says Mr. Gloystein, 鈥渂ut to compensate they will try and accelerate the de-carbonization of its economy in the longer term.鈥�

This dual agenda 鈥� to rapidly boost domestic LNG production while also weaning off fossil fuels 鈥� means Germany鈥檚 overall energy supply will go through a 鈥渞eally awkward cycle,鈥� Mr. Gloystein adds, especially considering new terminals usually require 20 years for return on investment. LNG demand is sky-high now, but by the time the local terminals are all up and running, demand should be dropping off.

By buying LNG, is Germany simply switching reliance on Russia to dependence on the United States?聽

Imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas into the EU had already with a value of about 鈧�12 billion ($12.2 billion).聽The huge amount of demand in the near term definitely means buying more from the U.S., and that flow should only increase as Russia鈥檚 gas supply gets choked off.聽

That raises concerns. 鈥淪ay we flip contracts [from Russia鈥檚 Gazprom] to the U.S., and then in two years Donald Trump is president again,鈥� says Mr. Gloystein. 鈥淲e know that he imposes tariffs and uses energy as political leverage. And that worries a lot of people in Europe.鈥澛�

Ultimately, Europeans are aware of the pitfalls of single suppliers, and that鈥檚 partly why leaders are visiting Qatar, Norway, and elsewhere to shore up supplies. Longer term, there鈥檚 going to be an emphasis on diversity of supply, but right now it鈥檚 buy, buy, buy from wherever they can get it.聽

How will Germany鈥檚 plan to use LNG impact the rest of Europe?聽

鈥淭his is actually, quietly, a very closely coordinated effort across the European Union,鈥� says Mr. Gloystein. 鈥淚t鈥檚聽just Germany gets all the headlines, because it鈥檚 the biggest economy, and it has the most awkward relationship with Russia.鈥�

In other words, it鈥檚 all hands on deck, with cooperation across Europe where needed.聽

For example, the Germans are working with the Dutch, who鈥檝e ordered an additional floating LNG terminal, which will help feed northern Europe. Spain has excess LNG import capacity, which may be shared with Italy and other neighbors who rely heavily on Russian imports.聽

鈥淚鈥檓 not certain whether the public sees energy as some sort of European love project that they now have to do together, but it鈥檚 certainly helped bring governments together,鈥� says Mr. Gloystein.聽

鈥淚 mean, governments have disagreed on virtually everything before this war. Poland, Hungary, Germany are now agreeing on virtually everything.鈥�