As French election tilts right, voters still favor leftist issues
| Paris
When the French are polled about what they value most, they overwhelmingly choose left-leaning issues like improving the social safety net and raising the minimum wage.听听
But in the campaign ahead of Sunday鈥檚 presidential election, that鈥檚 not what voters are hearing. Instead, the election has been dominated by public debate on crime, security, and immigration 鈥� all hot-button issues on the right.听听
鈥淭he French debate is pulling public opinion to the right,鈥� says Bruno Cautr猫s, a political science researcher at Cevipof-Sciences Po. 鈥淏ut at the same time, many French people are feeling like France is no longer a fair and just country. They鈥檙e asking for more social protections and solutions to inequality.鈥澨�
Why We Wrote This
Behind the ascent of far-right politicians in France is a puzzle: Voters still tend to prioritize socioeconomic fairness over right-wing causes like immigration. The electoral system may explain part of this gap.
Over the past two decades, French politics have steadily shifted听rightward, even as its welfare state has remained among the most robust in Europe. And while President Emmanuel Macron, an avowed centrist, is favored to win a second term, his closest challenger is not a mainstream leftist 鈥撎齮he once-mighty Socialist party barely registers 鈥� but Marine Le Pen, the far-right candidate he defeated in 2017 in a runoff election.听听
Polls suggest a rematch, but with Ms. Le Pen trailing Mr. Macron by a closer margin than last time. Jean-Luc M茅lenchon, a veteran leftist who is often compared to U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, is polling third. Only two candidates go through to the second round on April 24.
Mr. Macron has himself shifted to the right during his presidency.听That has left many left-leaning voters with a familiar dilemma: Vote with their head for President Macron or with their heart for a leftist candidate who can鈥檛 win 鈥� or simply stay home on election day. This dynamic has opened up a听growing gap between French values and voting behavior,听at least when it comes to socioeconomic priorities.听听
鈥淭he French political class and the media have moved to the right but haven鈥檛 necessarily taken the French people with them,鈥� says Pierre Br茅chon, a professor emeritus of political science at Sciences Po Grenoble. 鈥淟eft-wing values, like closing the gender pay gap and social equality, have remained stable. But values don鈥檛 necessarily translate at the ballot box.鈥澨�
Rise of the far-right听 听 听 听
For decades听France鈥檚 working class听supported听left-wing parties that promoted听full听employment,听and generous听retirement and health-care benefits.听But Ms. Le Pen鈥檚 father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, outspoken and antisemitic, began to woo blue-collar voters alienated by mainstream politicians. In 2002, he made waves by coming second in a presidential election, and Ms. Le Pen has built momentum by rebranding his party while capitalizing on growing social tensions surrounding France鈥檚 Muslim minority.听听听
Indeed, the strength of far-right candidates is partly the result of the wave of terrorist attacks in France in 2015 and 2016 that shook the nation and pushed issues of identity and religion to the fore, wrong-footing Socialist politicians who were seen as too weak on tackling Islamic extremism.听
Mr. Macron served in a Socialist administration before breaking away to create his own party that he said could unite the left and right. But his presidency has often leaned rightward: He pushed听conservative legislation on immigration, a controversial anti-separatist law, and听changed labor laws and hiked gas prices, sparking听the national yellow vest protests.听听
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This time, Ms. Le Pen has faced her own challenge from the right in the form of Eric Zemmour, a TV pundit whose nativist candidacy for president helped tip the election campaign toward issues like听security, immigration, and the听perceived听threat of Islam.听That debate has been catnip for French media 鈥撎齛nd for politicians, even if they might prefer to change the topic.
鈥淭he more French people seem to want to hear about a subject like insecurity, the more politicians give them what they want, and the more media outlets relay information on this theme,鈥� says Arnaud Mercier, a professor of communications at the University of Paris II Assas. 鈥淚t creates an atmosphere of people being genuinely worried about security.鈥澨�
There was speculation that Russia鈥檚 invasion of Ukraine might erode Ms. Le Pen鈥檚 chances at the polls, given her past support of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Instead, it appears that Mr. Zemmour is the one who鈥檚 been damaged by his past pro-Russian statements.
Social issues matter more
Still, those worries are secondary to social issues for many voters. A September 2021 Ipsos study found that 46% of respondents cared about the future of France鈥檚 welfare system and 41% cited the protection of the environment. By contrast, only 34% said they were worried about immigration,听the bugbear of Mr. Zemmour, who claims that white Europeans are at risk of being replaced by nonwhites.听听
So why don鈥檛 voting patterns reflect these priorities? One reason, suggests听Mr Br茅chon, is that values evolve more slowly than attitudes and behaviors, 鈥渨hich are reactionary and change very quickly following a stimulus鈥澨齣n the form of populist fearmongering.听
Another is the way that France chooses its president. Under its electoral system, a second round of voting is needed if no candidate wins a majority. This encourages tactical voting to keep out extremist candidates like Ms. Le Pen. But it may also lead to voters feeling less aligned with candidates on their values.听
It also fuels apathy: Turnout in Sunday鈥檚 election is predicted to fall below 70%, compared with 78% in the first round of voting in 2017. That would be the lowest turnout for a French presidential election since 2002 when only 72% of voters participated.听A听November study by the听Fondation Jean Jaur猫s found that left-leaning voters听were more likely to stay home than right-leaning voters.
For all the culture-war debates,听France鈥檚 next president will听likely spend more time tackling听long-standing issues like public debt and economic productivity.听And those issues have long confounded politicians on both the left and the right.听听
鈥淲e get angry when the government doesn鈥檛 reform the country but shudder when they do,鈥� Dominique Reyni茅, director of the Paris-based think tank Fondapol, told the Anglo-American Press Association last week.听鈥淭he French now expect politicians to say, 鈥榃e鈥檙e going to have to make some efforts, but it鈥檚 going to be painful.鈥欌�澨� 听
