As war in Ukraine rages, Russians look on with increasing dismay
-
Fred Weir Special correspondent
| Moscow
When Russia annexed Ukraine鈥檚 largely Russian-populated territory of Crimea in 2014, it was met with a palpable joy among Russians.
What a difference eight years makes.
Today, despite the fog of war and a deepening crackdown on civil society, surprising numbers of Russians are expressing shock at and even outright opposition to their country鈥檚 escalating invasion of Ukraine.
Why We Wrote This
The war in Ukraine may have come at a high cost for Vladimir Putin at home. The backlash against the conflict suggests a moral split and loss of trust between the Russian public and its leadership.
As Russian forces close in on Kyiv and other key Ukrainian cities, and the prospect of hard fighting and large-scale casualties looms, the sort of welcome that the bloodless reunification with Crimea enjoyed聽鈥� and its coinciding聽spike in popularity of Russian President Vladimir Putin 鈥� seems largely absent today.
Even the tone of Russian state TV is not jubilant as it was then, but more insistent on the patriotic imperative to 鈥渟upport the troops鈥� in time of war.
鈥淭here is a feeling that the whole world has turned against Russia, and that we can never win this,鈥� says Olga Kryshtanovskaya, one of Russia鈥檚 leading sociologists. Her husband is Ukrainian, and like many Russians, she has close contacts in Ukraine. 鈥淧utin has lost a lot of support among the elite. It turns out their loyalty comes at a high price. Some people in my own circle have a different point of view from mine, so I decided to break off contacts with them. It鈥檚 not just a difference of political views anymore. It鈥檚 a moral discrepancy.
鈥淢ore people are switching from TV to internet sources. Everyone is looking for truthful information. No one is interested in Russian or Ukrainian propaganda; people want independent and neutral information.鈥�
A social (media) shift
Increasing numbers of Russians, especially the young, no longer take their news from official sources. They turn to the internet, especially the messaging app Telegram, where even . Despite attempts by Russia鈥檚 state media censor, Roskomnadzor, to slow or obscure the sharing of war-related content on Facebook, Twitter, and other social media platforms, the measures seem so far .
Zoya Svetova, a journalist and human rights activist, says she doesn鈥檛 watch television at all. 鈥淚 compare different opinions on the social nets. Many people are accessing and reading Ukrainian sites,鈥� she says. 鈥淪ocial media has a lot of advantages. You can hear witnesses speaking about their experiences. There are videos of bombings, destruction, and so on. Many different views can be heard. The authorities realize that social media is a weapon, and that鈥檚 why they are trying to limit it.鈥�
It鈥檚 early yet, and analysts caution that much depends on the course of the war going forward. But in recent days, tens of thousands of anti-war activists have protested in major Russian cities, and at least 5,000 have been detained. An has garnered almost a million signatures, while open letters of condemnation have proliferated, including one signed by , and another by .
Leonid Gozman, an opposition politician, says he senses an approaching sea change in public opinion.
鈥淚 myself stood in a one-man picket [on Sunday] in the center of Moscow with a sign that said 鈥楴o to War!鈥� and 鈥楶utin Must Resign!鈥� and not a single person expressed a negative opinion to me,鈥� he says. 鈥淥n the contrary, many came over to offer their support.鈥� Solitary pickets are one of the few forms of protest that under Russian law.
It鈥檚 hard to gauge whether Mr. Putin鈥檚 vaunted popularity has taken a hit after several rambling speeches in which he revealed sweeping war objectives that would spell the end of sovereign Ukraine. A CNN poll found that half of Russians would support the use of force to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. Pollsters say those numbers are probably holding up so far. But there seems little doubt that the war has polarized Russians more than any event in recent years.
The Kremlin鈥檚 red lines
Russian authorities describe the ongoing war as a 鈥渟pecial operation鈥� and have made clear that public use of non-approved terminology might entail legal consequences.
鈥淎 lot of people have understood that they need to watch what they say,鈥� says Alexei Makarkin, deputy director of the Center of Political Technologies, an independent Moscow think tank. 鈥淥ur laws are elastic, as is the way courts interpret them. We have a law about false information, introduced in 2020 and meant to combat fakes about the COVID pandemic. Information coming from the state is considered reliable, hence the term 鈥榮pecial operation鈥� is approved for use. But words like 鈥榳ar鈥� and 鈥榠nvasion鈥� are regarded as fake news, and people who say that can face fines.鈥�
According to the independent online news outlet Meduza, Russian schools for how to discuss the situation with students. For example: 鈥淭o a possible question 鈥業s this a war with Ukraine? Do we need to do this?鈥� the teacher is advised to answer, 鈥楾here is no war with Ukraine, but a special peacekeeping operation, the purpose of which is to contain the nationalists who oppress the Russian-speaking population.鈥欌��
The tone on state TV programs is surprisingly muted, says Masha Lipman, senior associate at the PONARS Eurasia program at George Washington University.
鈥淥n state TV talk shows you can often hear people saying things like, 鈥楴o one likes war, but once you鈥檙e in it, you鈥檇 better win,鈥欌�� she says. 鈥淚t sends the message that anti-war activism is wrong and inappropriate when Russian troops are fighting in the field. Being a pacifist may sound noble on principle, but in such times you should be patriotic and support the troops.鈥�
Still, some Russian oligarchs have publicly taken just that pacifist position. Billionaires Mikhail Fridman and Oleg Deripaska both , in a break with the Kremlin line. And Kremlin insider and Chelsea F.C. owner Roman Abramovich is reportedly between Ukraine and Russia.
Much will depend on how long the war goes on, and how bad its fallout becomes for the Russian public, says Sergei Davidis, a lawyer with the now-banned human rights group Memorial.
鈥淵es, the majority of the population is silent. They are always silent,鈥� he says. 鈥淏ut more and more people are already getting involved in anti-war activities. If the war takes an unsuccessful turn, and there is a dramatic worsening of the economic pain and isolation faced by Russians, we can expect those numbers to grow. All the more so since no one can explain why on earth Russia even needs this war?鈥�
