COVID-19 versus Brexit: Pandemic wins by a knockout
| London
Three weeks into its post-Brexit existence, the United Kingdom isn鈥檛 experiencing the sort of new world that 鈥渓eave鈥� supporters were expecting. Nor one that the 鈥渞emain鈥� side anticipated, either.
The endless political debate that had consumed society may finally be over. Take a walk around any British street and you鈥檇 be hard-pressed to find the quirky placards that had adorned bedroom windows immediately after the 2016 Brexit referendum. And the protesters clad in Union Jack blazers or EU colored hats聽jostling for attention outside Parliament are no longer to be found.
But instead of being rampant at the moment that it became real, Brexit has largely fallen from public attention. With the pandemic ravaging the U.K., most Britons are more concerned with lockdowns and social distancing than their country鈥檚 new geopolitical status. And even were the pandemic not a factor, the public still remains firmly divided over Brexit, with the new trade deal鈥檚 implications only starting to emerge.
Why We Wrote This
Britain鈥檚 most momentous political move for generations took effect this month, but nobody paid much attention. Years of exhausting debate about Brexit, and the COVID-19 crisis, sapped the nation鈥檚 interest.
鈥淚t鈥檒l take a long time before anyone is able to come to a really objective assessment on what Brexit really means for the U.K.,鈥� says Patrick Diamond, former head of policy at 10 Downing Street. 鈥淭he disruptive effect of the pandemic has been so enormous. It鈥檒l be several years before an objective understanding is possible.鈥�
鈥淲all to wall COVID鈥�
Britain鈥檚 bandwidth for Brexit talk has faded rapidly with broadcasters, newsstands, and politicians focused on a pandemic that has left the U.K. with the highest daily per capita death rate in the world.
鈥淪ince the deal was concluded, it鈥檚 been wall-to-wall COVID. The mood is oddly non-political at the moment,鈥� says Mr. Diamond, now a politics lecturer at Queen Mary University of London. With the Brexit deal rapidly enacted at the end of the year, it 鈥渃reated a national sigh of relief, with people thinking ... 鈥極K, we鈥檝e got a basic deal in place. It wasn鈥檛 a disaster and some continuity is now possible.鈥欌��
Brexit opponents like Mike Buckley, director of the campaign group Labour for a European Future, say the muted response is down to public exhaustion. He argues that a trifecta of being 鈥渂row-beaten by the government, who want everybody to move on,鈥� media which have 鈥渘ever reported Brexit well,鈥� and ineffective political opposition that has 鈥渋ll served the public鈥� have all lowered聽the volume on Brexit.
Certainly, COVID-19 is responsible for drawing away the public鈥檚 attention. Almost three-quarters of Britons say the pandemic is the most important issue on their minds, according to an Ipsos Mori poll. With the public staying at home and unable to interact under lockdown restrictions, Brexit has fallen down the pecking order for Britons consumed by the impact of COVID-19 on daily life, says Keiran Pedley, Ipsos Mori research director.
As for how people feel about Brexit, little has changed and the mood remains divided. Political opinions have entrenched in the four-and-a-half years since the 2016 Brexit referendum took place, Mr. Pedley says.
According to an early January poll by Ipsos Mori, 45% of Britons think Brexit has had a negative impact on the country, figures that are relatively unchanged over the last year. Only 28% think Brexit has had a positive impact on the country 鈥� up a point from June, but down 5 points from January last year, while 17% say it has made no difference and 10% don鈥檛 know.
鈥淲hen you look at those numbers it sums up Brexit quite nicely, because you can interpret it in two different ways. You can say the public are more negative than positive, which is true,鈥� or that just as many people think the breakaway is positive or neutral as think it鈥檚 a bad thing.
Seeking opportunity through uncertainty
Still, there are signs that the reality of the Brexit deal 鈥� and some of its costs, not all expected 鈥� is starting to set in. 鈥淭rade barriers, food shortages in Northern Ireland 鈥� and Scottish fishermen having to throw away rotting food鈥� because new bureaucratic delays have made it unsaleable, says Mr. Buckley, the Labour group director. 鈥淔acts are now cutting through,鈥� he adds.
Britain鈥檚 fishing industry, long a vocal advocate of Brexit, has rapidly shifted its tone toward the new state of affairs after the new trade deal鈥檚 border controls pushed small British fish exporters to the brink of ruin. 鈥淭hroughout the fishing industry there is a profound sense of disillusionment, betrayal, and fury that after all the rhetoric, promises, and assurances, the Government caved-in on fish,鈥� says Barrie Deas, chief executive of the National Federation of Fisherman鈥檚 Organisations, which represents Britain鈥檚 fishers. On Monday, more than 20 shellfish trucks parked on roads near the British parliament and Prime Minister Boris Johnson鈥檚 residence in protest over post-Brexit bureaucracy.
There has also been disappointment that Britain has pulled out of the European university exchange scheme, ERASMUS. One of the most popular EU programs, ERASMUS has given hundreds of thousands of British students a chance to discover unfamiliar cultures and study foreign languages.
The decision to abandon the scheme was described by Nicola Sturgeon, first minister of Scotland, as 鈥渃ultural vandalism.鈥�
Much of the logistical detail around the trade deal remains murky, which is causing problems for small business owners. Abhilash Jobanputra and Gabriel Ungur left their banking jobs to set up a stall selling freshly brewed Indian chai in London two years ago. Unable to get basic cardboard packaging from Europe hinders their deliveries, the entrepreneurs say, and Brexit has 鈥渃reated a depressed mindset鈥� among their fellow British startups.
鈥淭he inability to really plan ahead, and have some kind of idea of what the world will look like even with a trade deal, is a struggle,鈥� says Mr. Unger. 鈥淏ut we鈥檙e trying to see opportunity amongst the uncertainty.鈥�
