Mediterranean frenemies face off: Greece, Turkey at 鈥榯he abyss鈥�
| Rome
Tensions in the eastern Mediterranean are at their highest level in decades after Turkey sent a survey vessel, escorted by warships, to prospect for oil and gas in waters claimed by Greece.
Athens sent its own warships in, and Ankara has responded by staging live-fire gunnery exercises in the area this week.
Why are Greece and Turkey at odds?
Why We Wrote This
Greece and Turkey are NATO allies, but their warships are challenging each other in the Mediterranean. Why has this conflict flared, and can it be contained?
Since the discovery of hydrocarbon deposits beneath the seabed a few years ago, both countries have claimed the right to exploit the resources. But geography complicates the dispute.
Turkey has the longest coastline in the Mediterranean and argues that it should enjoy commensurate rights to any gas and oil that is discovered. But Greece owns a scattering of islands that lie just a few miles off the Turkish coast, so Athens claims that its continental shelf extends into Turkey鈥檚 coastal waters.
The picture has been further complicated by a deal Turkey made last year with Libya to carve out a large part of the Mediterranean as their self-proclaimed joint area of interest. Greece reciprocated in early August by concluding a rival accord with Egypt.
Turkey feels hemmed in and contained by maritime demarcations that were drawn up nearly a century ago, after the First World War and the collapse of the Ottoman Empire.
鈥淭urkey wants to demonstrate to Greece that Turkey will never accept the imposition of what it sees as an unfair partition of the eastern Mediterranean,鈥� says Sinan 脺lgen, chairman of Edam, an Istanbul-based think tank. 鈥淭here is broad consensus over this within Turkey.鈥�
Turkey鈥檚 authoritarian president, Recep Tayyip Erdo臒an, is sounding a belligerent note, accusing the Greeks of acting like 鈥減irates.鈥�
鈥淭urkey will take what is its right in the Mediterranean, in the Aegean, and in the Black Sea,鈥� he said in a speech last week.听
鈥淚f anyone wants to stand before us and face the consequences, they are welcome to,鈥� he added. 鈥淚f not, stay out of our way, and we will continue with our work.鈥�
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Why is the situation different from previous crises?
Simply put, because Turkey feels less constrained and is acting more self-confidently.
Greece and Turkey, who are NATO allies, nearly went to war in 1996 in a dispute over uninhabited Aegean islets. Since then they have lived in uneasy d茅tente.
The new flare-up is particularly dangerous and unpredictable because Turkey is bolder now, observers warn. Ankara 鈥渉as used its military with some success in Libya and Syria,鈥� points out Ian Lesser, executive director of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, a think tank. 鈥淚ts capacity to project power is greater than it was in the past 鈥� and Turkey is much more assertive and much more conscious of its maritime interests.鈥�
Secondly, under President Erdo臒an, Turkey is pursuing a highly nationalistic agenda, recalling the Ottoman era.
鈥淭urkey is meddling in Libya, Syria, Iraq and the Aegean 鈥� all areas that used to belong to the Ottoman Empire,鈥� says Angelos Chryssogelos, an expert on the eastern Mediterranean at London Metropolitan University.
At the same time, Ankara鈥檚 relationship with the West, is 鈥渁lmost at breaking point,鈥� Dr. Lesser points out. 鈥淭here鈥檚 a complete breakdown of trust between Turkey and European capitals.听It鈥檚 become harder and harder to engage Turkey,鈥� he says. And with Turkey鈥檚 long-mooted accession to the European Union seemingly at a dead end, the West has less leverage over Ankara than it did in previous crises.
How likely is war to break out?
Germany鈥檚 foreign minister, who is trying to intercede in the dispute, warned last week that the two countries are staring into 鈥渢he abyss.鈥�
鈥淭he situation is very risky,鈥� said Heiko Maas. 鈥淲hoever moves closer and closer to the听abyss听can at some point fall down. Any spark, however small, could lead to a disaster.鈥�
Complicating the conflict further is the number of countries involved. 鈥淚t is听quite different from the past, when you had just Greece and Turkey involved and the Americans trying to calm things down,鈥� says Dr. Chryssogelos.
France and the United Arab Emirates have sent aircraft and warships to back up Greece, while Cyprus, Israel, and Egypt also have a stake in prospecting for hydrocarbons in the eastern Mediterranean.
The more warships and fighter planes there are jostling for space in the region, the greater potential there is for an accident that could lead to war, though most observers agree that neither side wants to fight.
鈥淔or Turkey, the idea is not to go to war but to place ships and planes in areas so as to stake a claim 鈥� to open up the agenda as much as possible,鈥� says Dr. Chryssogelos.
鈥淓rdo臒an does not want war, but he is prepared to use military persuasion to back his political posture,鈥� suggests Mr. 脺lgen. 鈥淭here is an environment of hypernationalism.鈥�
鈥淚n all likelihood there will not be a deliberate military confrontation,鈥� predicts Dr. Lesser. 鈥淧olicymakers are all aware of the risks. But with more military exercises and more forces in the region, the risk of something going wrong is there.鈥�
