Catalonia secession bid: Will a pause change the prospects?
| Barcelona, Spain
The separatist leader of Catalonia stepped back from the brink Tuesday evening, postponing a much heralded unilateral declaration of independence and offering to open talks with the central government of Madrid.
鈥淭oday we are making a gesture of responsibility in favor of dialogue,鈥� Carles Puigdemont, the president of Catalonia told the regional parliament. But the loudest applause greeted his insistence that 鈥淚 assume the mandate for Catalonia to become an independent state in the form of a republic.鈥�
That set the scene for further drama in Spain鈥檚 worst political crisis since a failed coup in 1981. Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has repeatedly refused to negotiate with Catalan leaders unless they abandon their plans to declare independence.
鈥淧uigdemont opened a door for negotiations to happen, but who knows what Rajoy will do,鈥� says Carles Ramio Matas, a political scientist at Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona. 鈥淲e鈥檙e still in uncharted territory.鈥�
Mr. Puigdemont had pledged to declare his region鈥檚 independence after voters in a referendum 10 days ago overwhelmingly endorsed that move. But only only 43 percent of the electorate turned out to vote, and Puigdemont appears to have hesitated in the face of strong opposition from European leaders and signs in recent days that businesses were fleeing the region, fearful of what independence could mean.
Stiff political headwinds
Puigdemont鈥檚 caution also reflects the stiff political headwinds he would face in imposing his separatist policy on a deeply divided region where only a 40 percent minority of voters favors secession, according to opinion polls.
Even some supporters of Catalan independence are dubious about the referendum, which was unconstitutional. 鈥淚鈥檝e been waiting for the independence of Catalonia all my life, but 鈥� I know there is not a majority for independence yet,鈥� said Alex Ros, a middle-aged businessman who turned out with hundreds of thousands of other demonstrators Saturday to demand dialogue.
鈥淲e should win independence in a legally binding referendum,鈥� agreed by the national government in Madrid, he added.
The Catalan leader鈥檚 cautious wording, stopping short of an outright independence declaration, appeared designed to head off the threat that Mr. Rajoy might dissolve the Catalan parliament and call new elections, or even suspend Catalonia鈥檚 autonomous status.
Deputy Premier Soraya Saenz de Santamaria had warned that 鈥渋f there is a unilateral declaration of independence, decisions will be made to restore law and democracy.鈥� A spokesman for the ruling Popular Party had suggested Puigdemont risked arrest.
A hard-line response from Madrid seems less likely in the wake of Puigdemont鈥檚 speech, Mr. Matas says. 鈥淩ajoy would lose face with the international community鈥� if he assumed direct rule of Catalonia, he argues. 鈥淚t would mean he refuses to dialogue鈥澛爓hile his rival in Catalonia was calling for 鈥渄e-escalation.鈥�
But the Catalan president鈥檚 tactical move disappointed many in the crowd of independence supporters who had gathered outside the parliament on Tuesday evening to watch his speech on a giant screen.
The mood of excited anticipation dissipated as onlookers digested the import of their leader鈥檚 words and streamed out of the square in silence. Some, such as 17-year-old student Gemma Giralt kept the faith, even though she said she had been looking forward to an independence announcement.
鈥淲e understand he [Puigdemont] was under a lot of pressure. We want to declare independence in a positive way and if he thinks we鈥檙e not ready for it, we鈥檙e going to give him as much time as he needs,鈥� Ms. Giralt said.聽
But Puigdemont鈥檚 speech left the political situation in Spain essentially unchanged 鈥� and confused.
Experts in Barcelona are unclear about what happens next and say the situation remains as uncertain as it was a week ago in the wake of the referendum. Puigdemont suggested on Tuesday that an international mediator might bring Madrid and Barcelona together.
Appeals for negotiation
Just before the parliament session, the president of the European Union鈥檚 Council, Donald Tusk, appealed to Puigdemont to step back from the cliff edge and negotiate with Rajoy.
鈥淭oday, I ask you to respect, in your intentions, the constitutional order and not to announce a decision that would make such dialogue impossible.
鈥淒iversity should not and need not lead to conflict, the consequences of which would obviously be bad for the Catalans, for Spain, and for the whole of Europe,鈥� he said.
European leaders such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron have made it clear they do not support Catalan independence, and their views clearly weigh on both Catalan leaders and the public.
鈥淚f unilateral independence is declared, only North Korea and Venezuela will support us,鈥� lamented Mr. Ros, who demonstrated for moderation on Saturday. 鈥淭hat鈥檚 not how things should go.鈥�
More pressure came from Catalonia鈥檚 business sector. Catalonia is Spain鈥檚 most productive economic region, accounting for a fifth of the national economy.聽Shares in Spanish banking stocks plunged聽on Wednesday聽as investors reacted to the uncertain prospects for an independent Catalonia.
Two major banks and several large companies have moved their legal bases out of Catalonia since the referendum, and a team from the Cercle d鈥橢conomia, an influential business group, urged caution on Puigdemont at a weekend meeting.
The ball is now in the Spanish prime minister's court. Puigdemont has yielded to pressure and shown some flexibility. Will Rajoy follow suit?
