Could Central European countries veto Brexit?
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico laid down a challenge for the EU last week. He announced that Slovakia 鈥� along with Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic 鈥� could veto a potential Brexit deal.
The UK鈥檚 鈥渓eave鈥� vote was motivated to some degree by the desire to control migration. At the same time, many government officials and international businesses want to see the UK maintain its access to the single EU market.聽
Prime Minister Fico and leaders of other Central European states are concerned that Britain鈥檚 exit strategy may negatively affect their citizens. The combination of restricted migration and the single market for goods would curtail the exchange of goods between the UK and Central Europe. In a sense, the 鈥減roduct鈥� exported by Central European states is cheap labor, which can only be shared if free movement of people continues.
鈥淔ree movement is the only way that most such services 鈥� in construction, retail, and so forth 鈥� can be traded, as construction workers and baristas ,鈥� John Springford, senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform, wrote in a report.
The free movement of people is particularly important to Poland. About 831,000 UK residents were , making it the most common non-UK country of birth in 2015. Many of these residents work in service industries.
It is as yet unclear whether those EU migrants already living and working in the UK will be allowed to stay, prompting a by nationals of some European states.
According to Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which reformed the two treaties that established the European Union, any country that wishes to leave the EU needs to negotiate a withdrawal deal, agreed to by a 鈥渜ualified majority鈥� of European states and the European Parliament.
In this case, at least 72 percent of remaining member states, representing at least 65 percent of the EU population, of the agreement. Any member state can also veto during the negotiating process. As Andrew Duff, a former Liberal Democrat Member of the European Parliament, put it, 鈥淭he clause puts most of the cards .鈥澛�
Nothing can happen until the UK formally triggers Article 50, beginning a two-year countdown to reach a deal. (This event has been slated for the beginning of 2017, although some sources indicate it may be pushed back). After that happens, how likely is it that EU member states would veto the exit agreement?
To this point, EU members have been divided over how to treat the UK. Sweden鈥檚 EU Minister Ann Linde told Bloomberg that she hoped for 鈥渟ome kinds of compromises on both sides.鈥� At the same time, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has made it clear that Britain free movement of goods without free movement of people. A senior EU official expressed concern about this division in the face of Britain鈥檚 diplomatic strength, telling Reuters, 鈥淚f we don鈥檛 stick together, .鈥�
Statistically speaking, the 27 remaining countries have a聽. The four countries that have so far committed to veto a deal that separates freedom of movement from freedom of trade comprise 64 million people, or 14.3 percent of the total EU population. A veto would take 35 percent of the EU population, or 91.6 million more people, a number that begins to look feasible if Germany, Italy, France or Spain聽signs on to the veto agreement. Both聽Germany and France have described the free movement of people as non-negotiable.聽
It therefore seems unlikely that Britain鈥檚 prime minister will be able to achieve the deal she hopes for. Theresa May told reporters at the UN General Assembly, 鈥�.鈥� She wants the UK to 鈥渂e a global leader in free trade,鈥� while simultaneously restricting migration from the EU.
What would happen if EU member states vetoed the exit agreement Mrs. May seeks? For some inside Britain, this would be a welcome step 鈥� they argue that access to the single market is not only unrealistic, but also undesirable. Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Nigel Lawson wrote in Newsweek that, 鈥淲e cannot accept freedom of movement of people. Freedom of movement is an integral part of the single-market theology, so .鈥� Brexit ministers Liam Fox, David Davis and Boris Johnson want to see a , an official told the Financial Times on Sunday.
Others advocate for a 鈥渟oft Brexit鈥� that would allow for some migration in exchange for keeping access to the single market. Conservative MP Andrew Tyrie, Chair of the House of Commons Treasury Select Committee, wrote a paper declaring that, 鈥淭he four freedoms of the single market .鈥�
Mr Tyrie believes it should be possible to balance the two ideas, preventing unnecessarily harsh economic impacts in UK firms. Almost 5,500 UK companies to gain business access across the EU 鈥� passports that would likely be revoked if the UK were no longer part of the single market. Financial firms and others, including telecom giant Vodafone, are looking at聽relocating from the UK to stay within the Eurozone, as 海角大神 reported in June.
If an agreement takes longer than two years from the point at which Article 50 is officially triggered, the UK could cease being part of the EU without any new agreements being made. For Central European leaders, the hope is that a veto will allow them to influence the trajectory of Brexit talks 鈥� and ideally push for freer movement of people 鈥� before that happens.
鈥淓ach member state will be able to veto any part of the negotiation mandate to make sure the mandate respects the ,鈥� Czech State Secretary for EU Affairs Tomas Prouza told Bloomberg.
[Editor's note: The original story incorrectly stated the EU population without the UK.]
