海角大神

Young Spanish professionals are increasingly relocating to different countries as their economic prospects worsen and unemployment shows no sign of letting up in the near future.

More than a decade of robust Spanish growth ended in 2008 as a construction boom went bust, and the global economic crisis further undermined the economy, leaving millions without a job.

But what this means to Spain's long-term future is not certain. Some emphasize the benefits of an聽internationally experienced generation upon their return, while others stress that their exit is depriving Spain of its most promising workers.

鈥淲e鈥檙e leaving because of the crisis, but the experience we鈥檒l get in the US is more rewarding,鈥� said German Coppola, a 37-year-old who in September is slated to move to Texas with his wife and three small children, after deciding to take a job in a technology company rather than taking a risk in Spain by continuing his own business.

鈥淚 got a good job offer doing what I do,鈥� Mr. Coppola said. 鈥淥n the other hand, the Spanish market is not fit for small companies in the technology sector. And most of our clients don鈥檛 have money to invest, and if they do, they don鈥檛 know what to invest it in.鈥�

The Spanish National Statistics Institute released preliminary data for the first half of 2012 last week, showing a rising exodus of Spaniards since 2009.

From 2009 to 2010, the number of Spaniards that moved to other countries increased by 5 percent, while in 2011 the percentage increase soared to 70 percent. In the first half of 2012, the number climbed almost 45 percent compared to the same period last year.

The number of departures, which in 2011 tallied almost 62,500 Spanish-born citizens, should not be taken at face value. It is difficult to track migratory movements, especially within a borderless European Union. But the trend is indisputable.听

Brain drain?

When the official statistics came out last week, Spanish media, many politicians, and columnists took a pessimistic view and warned of a brain drain that would deny Spain its most promising engineers, doctors, scientists, and similar professions in the future.

Of those who left in 2011, one-third were aged between 22 and 35 years old. The data suggest that most moved to a country within Europe, and to a lesser degree to Latin America and the US. The number of Spanish citizens that left in the first half of 2012 increased by 45 percent.

In 2011, out of a half-million people who emigrated to other countries only 12 percent were Spanish-born. The rest were foreign immigrants going back home, mostly from the European Union, Northern Africa, and South America.听

Out of proportion聽

But many experts warn that the issue is being blown out of proportion. There鈥檚 little that can be done to reverse the trend with Spain鈥檚 current dire economic forecasts. Moreover, experts warn many more will leave, an expected consequence of high unemployment, especially among those under 35 years old, half of whom are without a job.听

鈥淚 think [calling it a] brain drain is an exaggeration. It鈥檚 more like a loss of human capital, and very limited at that,鈥� says Joaqu铆n Arango, a migration expert at the Group of Population and Society Studies, a Spanish think tank, and a sociology professor at the Universidad Complutense de Madrid. 鈥淭hese are just estimates. Quantifying departures is very hard and carries a huge error margin.鈥�

鈥淚t鈥檚 significant, though,鈥� he adds, 鈥渂ecause it shows a trend. This crisis is very serious and it鈥檚 especially affecting the young, so it鈥檚 normal that they would seek other opportunities, among other reasons because they are mobile and have little to look forward to here.鈥�

In the short term, migration will be good, some analysts argue, as most youths are unemployed anyway and thus the Spanish unemployment rate should fall, albeit moderately. Furthermore, it is likely to create an internationally experienced generation of Spanish-educated professionals, most of whom will return when the economy turns around.

Brain 'train'

鈥淚鈥檇 say this is more of a brain train, than a brain drain,鈥� says Gayle Allard, an economics professor at Spain鈥檚 IE Business School. 鈥淎s long as they come back, and knowing Spain, they probably will, I don鈥檛 think it鈥檚 a tragedy. It鈥檚 the push that these young [people] need to find the skills that Spain wants.鈥澛�

鈥淚 tend to think in a country as closed as Spain traditionally is, where people stay home, this is going to be a plus. They鈥檒l come back with experience and more languages,鈥� Ms. Allard adds.

Mr. Coppola is planning to come back, but not before Spain鈥檚 economy improves.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 think there鈥檚 anything the government can do to fix this, not for another three or four years,鈥� he says. 鈥淲e鈥檒l come back then, but I鈥檒l have the experience of working in the US.鈥�

Spain鈥檚 economy could take a lot longer than that to recover, after which luring all that talent will be increasingly difficult, points out Dr. Arango.

鈥淎s long as this crisis continues, the departure trend will not change,鈥� he says.听鈥淲e鈥檒l have a problem if this becomes chronic and people don鈥檛 return. But right now, with the economy in this shape, there are other priorities.鈥�