In a twist of history, the Socialist candidate Fran莽ois Hollande (polling at 27 percent) will likely face Sarkozy in a run-off 鈥� just as Royal, the mother of his four children and former partner, did in 2007.
Hollande is running as 鈥淢r. Normal鈥� 鈥� the quiet man, in contrast with Sarkozy鈥檚 style more showy or aggressive style that has hurt his popularity among many French. Hollande describes himself as on the center left 鈥� 鈥減ink,鈥� rather than the 鈥渞ed鈥� radical left. He has strongly criticized 鈥渂ig finance鈥� but has also earned plaudits from small and medium-sized business owners, who see his economic approach as pragmatic.
He was born in the northern France town of Rouen in 1954. His father was a doctor and his mother was a social worker. He attended Paris鈥檚 elite Ecole Nationale d鈥橝dministration (ENA) that has been the postwar feeder school for most top French leaders and cut his political teeth in the heady leftist 1968 student movement.
He is a top political thinker and policy maker and became the leader of the Socialist party in 1997. He鈥檚 been a member of the National Assembly, the lower house of the French parliament, but has not held a top position nor cabinet spot 鈥� even as Ms. Royal, who he met at ENA, climbed the ranks as a prot茅g茅 of former president Fran莽ois Mitterrand.
The Socialists have not held power for 17 years and Hollande did not emerge as their candidate of choice until former IMF director Dominique Strauss-Kahn鈥檚 sex scandal took him out of the race. Hollande shed 40 pounds and a pudgy profile in preparation for the bid.
Unlike Strauss-Kahn, Hollande has little foreign experience and his views remain vague (he says he will 鈥渨ork out鈥� withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan by the end of the year). His supporters note that Sarkozy had no foreign policy experience prior to the presidency either.
Hollande鈥檚 strength is a grassroots connection to French society. If elected, he was vowed to shift Europe鈥檚 current austerity policy toward one of growth. He favors bonds issued by the European Central Bank as a way to finance infrastructure building and says he will renegotiate the EU鈥檚 German-led 鈥渇iscal compact鈥� if elected.
He wants to impose higher taxes on banks and spend more on education. To cut away at some of Melanchon鈥檚 popularity on the left, Hollande announced a 75 percent tax rate on income above $1.3 million, athough the effect is inconsequential. At the end of March, Hollande was 1.5 points behind Sarkozy in first-round elections and nine points ahead in the second and final round.
