海角大神

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou dropped a political bombshell Monday evening when he announced that Greek voters would get to say if they are willing to accept the rescue package agreed on by European leaders last week.

At a meeting of his party鈥檚 parliamentary group, Mr. Papandreou said there would be a vote of confidence on his government later this week and a referendum on the latest bailout package for Greece. He did not specify when the referendum was to be held or what the exact question put to Greek voters would be.

In Europe鈥檚 capitals, the announcement 鈥� coming after an EU emergency summit last week agreed on loans worth 130 billion euros ($177 billion) and a 50-percent debt write-off 鈥� caused angry reactions from EU politicians and new nervousness at financial markets.

But will Papandreou's government even survive to hold the Greek referendum? Observers in Greece are doubtful.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 think there will be a referendum,鈥� says Panagiotis Korliras, professor at the Athens University of Economics and Business. 鈥淚 rather think the Papandreou government will fall, maybe as early as this week.鈥�

Europe's politicians stunned, 'dismayed'

French President Nicolas Sarkozy is reported to be 鈥渄ismayed,鈥� according to French newspaper Le Monde. Later today he will discuss the Greek move in a phone call with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Sweden鈥檚 Foreign Minister Carl Bildt said he had a hard time understanding what exactly Greek voters would be asked to vote on.

Finland鈥檚 Minister for European Affairs Alexander Stubb warned such a referendum would amount to a vote on Greece鈥檚 eurozone membership. And Rainer Br眉derle, parliamentary floor leader for the FDP, the junior partner in Germany鈥檚 coalition government, told a German radio station that he was "irritated by the news.鈥�

"This sounds to me like someone is trying to wriggle out of what was agreed 鈥� a strange thing to do,鈥� said Mr. Br眉derle, who was Germany's economy minister for the past two years.

'Financial suicide'?

European markets fell after the announcement. The FTSE 100 in London traded 2.5 percent lower, the Dax in Frankfurt fell 5 percent and the Cac-40 in Paris dropped 3.3 percent. Shares of banks like Deutsche Bank and Soci茅t茅 G茅n茅rale suffered, losing up to 10 percent of their value.

Analysts criticized Mr. Papandreou鈥檚 decision.

鈥淭he entire rescue package for Greece is up in the air again,鈥� said Benjamin Schroeder of Commerzbank.

Folker Hellmeyer, chief analyst with the Bremer Landesbank, called the move 鈥渇inancial suicide.鈥�

Dignified exit?

In Greece, Papandreou鈥檚 announcement is seen as an attempt to secure political backing for highly unpopular austerity measures 鈥� or a dignified exit from office. A poll published over the weekend in the Athens daily To Vima showed that 59 percent of Greeks believe the EU bailout package would have negative consequences for them. Fifty-four percent said they would welcome a referendum on the bailout. But at the same time 73 percent were in favor of Greece remaining a member of the eurozone.

That could prove difficult, should a referendum vote against the bailout package, according to J枚rg Rocholl, president of the Berlin-based European School of Management and Technology.

鈥淎 Greek No vote would cause EU countries to rethink their commitments to the rescue package. And that in turn would mean that Greece can鈥檛 remain in the euro,鈥� Mr. Rocholl says.

But it seems that the Greek PM has run out of options.

鈥淧apandreou lacks the support of the opposition and of the electorate,鈥� says Professor Korliras in Athens. 鈥淎nd he can鈥檛 even fully control his majority in parliament. So he is in a cul-de-sac.鈥�

Given the current political climate, the most likely outcome of early elections, demanded by the political opposition, would be a coalition government 鈥� and that would be good news for Greece, Korliras believes.

鈥淭hey would probably try to re-negotiate some parts of the bailout package, but in general they would go ahead with it," he says. "So there鈥檚 still hope for Greece within the eurozone.鈥�