India-Russia summit: Why the world鈥檚 largest democracy is keeping Putin close
| New Delhi
On his first trip to Russia since the war in Ukraine began, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi embraced Russian President Vladimir Putin in one of his signature bear hugs.聽
The embrace outraged many. India celebrates being the world鈥檚 largest democracy, and is an increasingly important U.S. ally in Asia. But other than Mr. Modi鈥檚 veiled criticism of Russia鈥檚 attack on a 鈥嬧�媍hildren鈥檚 hospital in Kyiv that occurred before his arrival on Monday, the two leaders got on like old friends 鈥� which their nations are.聽
India has long relied on Russia for military equipment, and today, India鈥檚 warmth toward Russia helps ensure a supply of cheap coal, oil, and fertilizer for the country of 1.4 billion.
Why We Wrote This
India-Russia ties seem as strong as ever after Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Vladimir Putin spent two days together in Moscow. But for India, experts say, the trip was really about asserting independence.
While India鈥檚 Western allies want Delhi to be tougher on Russia, experts say the United States accepts the relationship.
Pankaj Saran, former deputy national security adviser of India, says that over the past 70 years, the India-Russia relationship has powered through difficult times. The U.S. concern over India鈥檚 closeness with Russia has only been a challenge for the last two years.
鈥淚t is not as if there is anything secret about the relationship鈥� between Delhi and Moscow, says Mr. Saran, who was India鈥檚 envoy to Russia from 2016 to 2018. 鈥淭he Americans understand that the Indians are getting the discounted oil,鈥� and that India isn鈥檛 Russia鈥檚 only potential ally in Asia.聽
鈥淚f you look at Russia and China, then India does not consider Russia in the same adversarial manner as it considers China,鈥� which shares a contentious border with India, he says. 鈥淲e have to maintain this friendship also to ensure that ... we do not push Russia further into Chinese arms.鈥�
India鈥檚 national priorities
Russia and India established a strategic defense and trade partnership during the Cold War, a relationship that persisted after the fall of the Soviet Union and was solidified in 2000 when the two countries signed a new cooperation declaration.聽
Facing U.S. sanctions after invading Ukraine, Russia deepened trade ties with India, offering significant discounts on oil and making India a major export market. Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra said last week that bilateral trade has witnessed a sharp increase in the 2023-24 financial year, reaching approximately $65 billion primarily due to energy cooperation.聽
During the summit, Mr. Modi and Mr. Putin agreed to boost bilateral trade to $100 billion by 2030, announced the opening of two new Indian consulates in Russia, and discussed the need for peace talks. Russia also supported India鈥檚 United Nations Security Council bid and agreed to release Indians controversially recruited into the Russian army.聽
For Russia, the meeting demonstrated that Moscow still has friends. For India, it marked a bold step forward on foreign and domestic goals.聽
鈥淢odi鈥檚 dreams of transforming India economically depend on the country鈥檚 ability to attract investment and technology from global partners, and to effectively secure the homeland,鈥� says Milan Vaishnav, South Asia Program director at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington-based think tank.
Even as Western allies pressure Delhi to distance itself from Moscow, India鈥檚 friendship with Russia still serves Mr. Modi鈥檚 ambitions to raise India鈥檚 profile as a global leader.
鈥淥verall, [the trip] just underlines the fact that India will decide its relationships on the basis of its national interest, and it鈥檚 not going to be swayed by pressures from other powers,鈥� says Nandan Unnikrishnan, head of Eurasian Studies at Observer Research Foundation, a think tank in Delhi.
Indeed, India鈥檚 foreign policy prioritizes independence. Its goal is to balance relations among three major powers 鈥撀燫ussia, the U.S., and China 鈥� and to prevent any single hegemon from dominating Asia.
Grudging acceptance
Among those major powers, India鈥檚 relations with China are currently the most strained.聽
In this geopolitical balancing act, that puts India and the U.S. on the same page. Just as Delhi sees ties to Moscow as essential for limiting Beijing鈥檚 power, the U.S. is prioritizing ties with India to counterbalance China, explains Peter Rough, director of the Center on Europe and Eurasia at Hudson Institute, a Washington-based think tank.
鈥淚ndia鈥檚 relationship with Russia is secondary for Washington,鈥� he says. 鈥淭he goal of U.S. foreign policy should be to maximize alignment and overlap on priority issues, and not allow differences or disagreements on secondary matters to hamper relations.鈥�
Michael Kugelman, South Asia Institute director at the Wilson Center, says that the West may not agree with India鈥檚 neutral position on Ukraine, but most Western allies recognize it as a consequence of India鈥檚 partnership with Russia.
鈥淚t鈥檚 a partnership that is problematic for the U.S., especially given all the Russian military equipment in an Indian defense system receiving ample U.S. defense technologies, but it鈥檚 a partnership the U.S. has grudgingly accepted,鈥� he says.聽
Mr. Kugelman says there鈥檚 little the U.S. can do but play the long game, seeking ways to eventually provide India with the military and energy supplies it has relied on from Russia, a process that will take time.
Mr. Saran, the deputy security adviser, says Mr. Modi鈥檚 commitment to independent foreign policy could prove valuable to the West. 鈥淭here is also an element here of trying to engage the Russians and Putin into some kind of a dialogue, in the hope that this dialogue can contribute towards鈥� diplomacy with the West and peace in Ukraine, he says.聽
Eugene Rumer, former U.S. National Intelligence Council officer for Russia and Eurasia, agrees. He calls India an important U.S. partner, sharing many interests as seen in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or the Quad, comprised of India, the U.S., Australia, and Japan. 鈥淭he relationship between Russia and the U.S. could benefit from mediation, and it could be a good thing if India could play that part.鈥�
