海角大神

Sri Lanka鈥檚 strategic location has attracted outsized interest in the small island nation from regional giants China and India for more than a decade, with Beijing and its free-flowing loans and infrastructure investments widely seen as having gained the upper hand in the quest for influence.

But Sri Lanka鈥檚 economic collapse has proved an opportunity for India to swing the pendulum back, with New Delhi stepping in with massive financial and material assistance to its neighbor.

鈥淭here is no such thing as charity in international politics,鈥� said Sreeram Chaulia, who heads the School of International Affairs at O.P. Jindal University in Sonipat, India.

鈥淭he intent is to drive China away from India鈥檚 backyard and restore the balance in New Delhi鈥檚 favor.鈥�

Sri Lanka, a country of 22 million, sits off the southern coast of India on the Indian Ocean shipping lanes through which China receives the vast majority of its imported oil from the Middle East.

As part of Chinese President Xi Jinping鈥檚 Belt and Road Initiative to pump money into infrastructure projects across Asia and Africa, former Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa took on many loans, including $1.1 billion to build a port in his home region of Hambantota despite the plan having been rejected by an expert panel.

When the deep-water port failed to generate the foreign revenue needed to pay China back, Sri Lanka in 2017 was forced to hand the facility and thousands of acres of land around it to Beijing for 99 years 鈥� giving China a key foothold directly opposite regional rival India鈥檚 coastline.

That stoked India鈥檚 ongoing concerns about China鈥檚 growing influence in South Asia, particularly in smaller countries like Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Maldives.

Concerns over China鈥檚 increasing regional assertiveness deepened in 2020 when Indian and Chinese soldiers clashed in deadly skirmishes on the disputed Himalayan Ladakh border.

In its maritime approach, Beijing鈥檚 military focus is currently more on the South China Sea and the Pacific, while its interest in Sri Lanka and the Indian Ocean appears to be more economically motivated, said Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, a London-based analyst with the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

鈥淥n the security side for China it鈥檚 not a priority, but it is an emerging opportunity for China to bolster its influence in South Asia and ... to counter India鈥檚 influence,鈥� he said.

Caught in between is Sri Lanka itself which, like many others in the region, needs both China and India, whose combined population is nearly 3 billion people, Mr. Roy-Chaudhury said.

鈥淚t鈥檚 not black and white,鈥� he said. 鈥淭he leaders of these countries have to be pro-India and pro-China at the same time.鈥�

Sajith Premadasa, the current Sri Lankan opposition leader, emphasized that while the country is 鈥渆xtremely grateful鈥� for India鈥檚 help in the current crisis, the government needs to ensure that Sri Lanka鈥檚 sovereignty and political independence are not impacted by the situation.

鈥淲hat Sri Lanka should do always is to ensure our own national interests 鈥� in order to maximize our own national interests,鈥� he told The Associated Press. 鈥淲e should work with everyone in international society, irrespective of which power group or power bloc anybody belongs to.鈥�

Sri Lanka has been rocked by protests since April after its foreign currency reserves ran dry, leading to widespread food and fuel shortages and power cuts, with demonstrators calling for the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, the brother of Mahinda Rajapaksa who was elected in 2019.

In May, Mahinda, who had been appointed prime minister, himself resigned, but Gotabaya has clung to power.

Gotabaya inherited an economy already in a slump after a series of attacks in early 2019 by Islamic extremists caused a dramatic drop-off in tourism, a major source of income, and enormous foreign debt from infrastructure projects, many bankrolled by Chinese money and commissioned by brother Mahinda.

But a series of unwise economic decisions made the situation worse, and it was further exacerbated by the global coronavirus hitting the tourism sector again, while the war in Ukraine has driven up food and fuel costs.

The government now owes $51 billion and is unable to make interest payments. It has suspended repayment of $7 billion in foreign debt due this year out of $25 billion to be repaid by 2026, pending the outcome of negotiations with the International Monetary Fund on a rescue package.

China, Sri Lanka鈥檚 third largest creditor after Japan and the Asian Development Bank, accounts for about 10% of its debt.

China has offered to lend more on favorable terms but has balked at forgiving some of Sri Lanka鈥檚 debt, possibly over concerns it would prompt other borrowers across Asia and Africa to demand the same relief.

But Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, who took office after Mahinda Rajapaksa resigned, has said that Sri Lanka has not been able to access $1.5 billion in loans offered by China, because Beijing has made the money contingent on the country having enough foreign reserves for three months.

Beijing has also promised to 鈥減lay a positive role鈥� in Sri Lanka鈥檚 talks with the IMF and is providing some 500 million yuan, about $75 million, in humanitarian aid, according to Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijan.

Meanwhile, India has stepped in with millions of dollars worth of rice, milk powder, medicine, and other humanitarian aid, as well as diesel fuel and gasoline.

India has also extended Sri Lanka a $4 billion credit line on favorable terms that has been widely credited with helping the country鈥檚 crisis from worsening, even as Mr. Wickremesinghe last week declared the economy had 鈥渃ompletely collapsed.鈥�

Mr. Wickremesinghe, who has served as prime minister several times before, is seen as pro-India, though he has limited leverage in his current role with Gotabaya Rajapaksa remaining president.

While the Rajapaksa family is considered pro-China, and with the general perception that China has been partially responsible for the country鈥檚 problems, the political winds seem to be shifting in India鈥檚 favor, Dr. Chaulia said.

India has not been actively promoting the perception that Chinese loans contributed to the crisis in Sri Lanka, but it also has not fought it, seeing the idea of a Chinese 鈥渄ebt trap鈥� as an advantageous narrative for it regionally.

鈥淚ndia is not worried if this message comes across,鈥� Mr. Roy-Chaudhury said.

New Delhi has recently succeeded in wresting away some of Beijing鈥檚 important projects in Sri Lanka, which is also a major destination for Indian exports.

In March, Sri Lanka finalized a joint venture with India to develop a solar power plant in the island nation. That same month, Colombo also terminated a contract with a Chinese company to build a $12 million wind farm in the country and offered it to an Indian rival.

鈥淲hile India is trying to maintain its strategic footprint in Sri Lanka, its main aim appears to be to minimize Chinese hold in the country,鈥� said K.C. Singh, a former Indian foreign secretary and a strategic affairs expert.

Coming to Sri Lanka鈥檚 aid also fits neatly into Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi鈥檚 鈥淣eighborhood First鈥� foreign policy initiative, which focuses on cultivating and sustaining relations with nearby countries, and it is also in India鈥檚 self interest not to have a neighboring country like Sri Lanka collapse into chaos, Mr. Roy-Chaudhury said.

鈥淚n economic terms, I think it would want to be one of a number of countries providing economic reassurance or support.鈥�

This story was reported by the Associated Press. David聽Rising reported from Bangkok. Krutika Pathi in New Delhi, Joe McDonald in Beijing, and Krishan Francis in Colombo, Sri Lanka, contributed to this report.