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When a study last fall showed the number of new foreign students arriving in the United States dipped slightly in 2016 鈥� the first time in years 鈥� some analysts attributed the decline to the 鈥淭rump effect.鈥�

The nationalistic and anti-foreigner undertones of then-candidate Donald Trump鈥檚 presidential campaign had weakened the international draw of the Made-in-America college education, experts said.

鈥淲e like to say that 鈥榯hings are in the air,鈥� and that鈥檚 the situation here,鈥� says Sheikh Safwan, a sophomore at Ashoka University who thought seriously about heading to the United States himself. 鈥淭here鈥檚 just this growing perception of uncertainty about the US, that it鈥檚 turning inward and that Trump鈥檚 direction is to discourage foreigners and put Americans first.鈥�

The new US administration is just one reason more Indian students are staying home, however. 鈥淚 can鈥檛 emphasize enough how much the cost of getting an education in the US is a discouragement,鈥� says Mr. Safwan, a political science major, and visas are a major factor, too.

But so is 鈥渁 changing perception about India,鈥� he adds.

Ashoka is India鈥檚 fledgling experiment in building an American-style liberal-arts institution, with a mushrooming campus rising from farm fields in New Delhi鈥檚 neighboring Haryana state. Here, 鈥渢here鈥檚 a growing sense of opportunities at home,鈥� Safwan explains, heading out of the university鈥檚 main library to get to a morning class.

Indeed, what comes through from conversations with students is much more than a tarnishing of America鈥檚 attractiveness to foreign students. The bigger message is an awareness of their country鈥檚 growing potential 鈥� and a sense that the kinds of opportunities many young Indians once associated almost exclusively with the US are now increasingly available at home.

鈥淚 know I want to do something that helps build a better future for my country, and I think I can do that getting my education here,鈥� Safwan says.

Shifting appeal

It鈥檚 a reversal of the push-pull dynamic that immigration experts have long cited to explain migration patterns: Now instead of feeling pushed away from India by a lack of future opportunities and pulled to the US by a big welcome mat and bright career options, Indian students increasingly seem to sense a slamming US door, and the tug of brightening horizons at home.

鈥淔ive or 10 years ago the US was pretty much the only option for students like us who wanted world-class interdisciplinary studies and a foot in the door to an attractive career, but now there are more options within India and in Asia,鈥� says Kriti Krishan, one of Ashoka鈥檚 300 Young India Fellows, a highly competitive program to train 鈥渃hange agents鈥� for a new India.

Ms. Krishan鈥檚 friend Raashi Raghunath, another Young India Fellow, says it鈥檚 her sense that the bloom is off the once-pervasive attraction of a life and career outside India.

鈥淭he diasporic urge has subsided to some degree,鈥� Ms. Raghunath says. 鈥淭wenty or 30 years ago it was the ultimate Indian dream, but now you can have that same lifestyle at a lower cost and without the separation from home. We all know of people who went to study abroad but then found they can get a better job staying here now.鈥�

To some extent, that optimistic vision is a rarity 鈥� more the mindset of top-school students getting a multidisciplinary education than the reality of college-graduate employment today. India鈥檚 traditional universities send about 5 million graduates into the job market each year, and economists and education experts warn that the usual rote-learning model most have experienced leaves them ill-prepared for the 21st-century economy. Many, including , end up with jobs well below what they thought their degree promised.

But the mood seems brighter at Ashoka. Seated at an outdoor study table on a chilly morning, Taghunath and Krishan discuss the waning 鈥淛humpa Lahiri effect,鈥� referring to the London-born American writer and daughter of Indian immigrants to the US who is known for her novels about the struggles of Indians adapting to life in America.

鈥淧eople were really attracted to the lifestyle and possibilities that Jhumpa Lahiri wrote about,鈥� Raghunath says. 鈥淏ut it seems Indians aren鈥檛 so fascinated by that any more. I feel that now more Indians think they can make those changes here.鈥�

'Making India great again'

That kind of thinking is bolstered by a daily buzz in business publications, among some economists, and not least from the country鈥檚 can-do prime minister, Narendra Modi, touting the idea that 鈥淚ndia鈥檚 time has come.鈥�

Print and television headlines trumpeted the news when the London-based Center for Economics and Business Research announced its recent projection that India in 2018 to become the world鈥檚 fifth-largest economy. More chest-thumping followed when the IMF issued a report estimating that, after a slowdown in 2017, India and reclaim (from China) the mantle of the world鈥檚 fastest-growing economy.

To be sure, many students at Ashoka say they still like the idea of spending some time in the US, or the UK, or perhaps another overseas destination (Australia, New Zealand, or Singapore are frequently mentioned) before wrapping up academic careers. And indeed, the showing a drop in new international students entering the US in Fall 2016 also showed an overall increase in Indian students in the US, as thousands of graduates decided to stay on past their studies for internships or other post-graduate positions.

Still, preliminary numbers for Fall 2017 showed an even bigger drop in new foreign students arriving in the US: down 7 percent, compared to a smaller 3 percent decline in new foreign students a year earlier.

Some Indians long in the US are making a point of informing their home country about the shifts they see underway 鈥� echoing student Safwan鈥檚 feelings of 鈥渢hings in the air鈥� about its dimming attraction.

In a recent opinion column in the Hindustan Times, provocatively titled 鈥淭rump is making India great Again,鈥� the Indian-American technology entrepreneur and academic Vivek Wadhwa says that the American president鈥檚 鈥渢irades against immigrants鈥� are only the latest factor in the US encouraging entrepreneurs from countries like India to go home. Green-card limbo has left about 1.5 million skilled workers and their families in uncertainty, he estimates, with about one-third of them Indian.

Highlighting that Indians created 15.5 percent of Silicon Valley start-ups 鈥� more than the next four immigrant groups combined 鈥� Wadhwa says the US risks losing its high-tech edge if Indians and other foreign entrepreneurs opt to return home. Noting further that more and more he hears from Indian engineering students in the US that their 鈥渦ltimate goal鈥� is to return to India to work in high-tech, Wadhwa concludes, 鈥淎merica鈥檚 loss is India鈥檚 gain.鈥�

Important impressions

Still, not everyone agrees that the US鈥檚 attraction for Indian students is about to flicker out.

Ashoka鈥檚 vice-chancellor, Pratap Mehta 鈥� who returned to India after an academic career in the US that included teaching at Harvard and NYU Law School 鈥� says he believes the concerns he hears about study in the US are exaggerated.

鈥淚鈥檇 say the perception is jumping ahead of the actual situation, but certainly this perception of a less accessible, less welcoming society [in the US] is there,鈥� Dr. Mehta says. 鈥淲e hear of an anti-research sentiment taking hold under the Trump administration, of opportunities closing up for foreign students, and it all adds up to a sense that the excellence of a society that we took for granted may not be as secure as we thought,鈥� he adds. 鈥淎nd to some degree we see young people developing a perception based on what they鈥檙e hearing, and acting on it.鈥�

The degree to which that perception is taking hold becomes clear back at the outdoor study table where students Krishan and Raghunath are chatting. In their eyes, they explain, it鈥檚 India鈥檚 bright future that accounts for the US鈥檚 diminished attraction 鈥� but another student at the table, who鈥檚 clearly been eavesdropping, suddenly speaks up.

Yanking out his computer earbuds, the young man glares at the women and blurts out, 鈥淲hy don鈥檛 you say what it really is? It鈥檚 Trump, it鈥檚 as simple as that.鈥�