Though the Army has ruled Pakistan directly for half of the country鈥檚 64 year history, analysts say it鈥檚 increasingly unlikely that the Army will forcibly oust the civilian government this time, because it just wouldn鈥檛 be popular with the media, Supreme Court, or the general public.
If the government is to be dismissed before elections, it鈥檚 more likely to come 鈥渓egally鈥� via a Supreme Court ruling. Right now, Pakistan is closely watching two high profile cases just for that reason.
The Supreme Court is investigating the Memo-gate scandal, pitting the Army and civilian government against each other in court. On Jan. 16, the Supreme Court charged Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani with contempt for failing to re-open corruption cases dating back to the 1990s against President Asif Ali Zardari.
If Mr. Gilani is found guilty, his jailing and dismissal from office could create a power vacuum that could be used to help the Army install a pro-military interim government.
Adding further interest, Mansoor Ijaz is due to appear before the court on Jan. 25, and has promised to unleash what he describes as damning revelations 鈥� that could send Pakistan鈥檚 hyperactive media into overdrive and further damage the government鈥檚 fragile reputation.
