In China, Jake Sullivan cements a triumph of quiet diplomacy
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Ann Scott Tyson Staff writer
| Seattle
As Americans prepare to celebrate Labor Day, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has been working overtime to keep the United States鈥� most crucial diplomatic relationship on an even keel.
Mr. Sullivan鈥檚 efforts paid off this week, as he made the first visit by a United States national security adviser to China in eight years, held unexpected talks with top Chinese leader Xi Jinping, and landed a rare meeting with China鈥檚 most senior military officer, General Zhang Youxia.
The three-day visit paved the way for a phone call in coming weeks between President Joe Biden and Mr. Xi, and for a possible in-person meeting later this year.
Why We Wrote This
A story focused onPresident Biden鈥檚 national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, capped 15 months of secret diplomacy this week with a trip to Beijing that seems to have put China-U.S. relations back on an even keel.
鈥淚ntense diplomacy matters,鈥� Mr. Sullivan told a Beijing press conference as he wrapped up his visit late Thursday. His Beijing trip capped a series of unpublicized meetings he had held over the past 15 months with China鈥檚 top diplomat, Wang Yi.
During a U.S. campaign season in which many American politicians are hostile to China, this quiet diplomatic effort by Washington and Beijing has succeeded in reversing the past few years鈥� dangerous tailspin in relations between the world鈥檚 two superpowers, experts say.
Mr. Sullivan鈥檚 trip cements the idea that 鈥渢alking to China 鈥� is not optional,鈥� says Susan Thornton, a retired high-level U.S. diplomat and senior fellow at the Yale Law School Paul Tsai China Center.听鈥淚t鈥檚 necessary for our national security,鈥� she says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 actually benefiting the United States鈥� by fostering stability 鈥渋n a world that鈥檚 looking more and more unpredictable,鈥� she says.
Under-the-radar diplomacy works
In recent years, U.S.-China tensions have soared over Taiwan and the South China Sea as well as trade, technology, and China鈥檚 support for Moscow since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Meanwhile, face-to-face dialogues were hampered when China closed its borders to most foreign travelers for three years during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Messrs. Biden and Xi met in Bali, Indonesia, in November 2022 to try to put a floor under the collapsing relationship. They pledged to resume regular communications. But these efforts were disrupted by a new crisis in February 2023, when a Chinese surveillance balloon flew over the continental U.S., only to be shot down by the U.S. military.
In this context, Mr. Biden dispatched Mr. Sullivan to lead multiple rounds of low-visibility meetings with Foreign Minister Wang, starting in May 2023. The talks were 鈥渧ery detailed, painstaking鈥� and 鈥渁n all-hands-on-deck effort鈥� by senior U.S. and Chinese officials, Mr. Sullivan told reporters.
This set the stage for a successful summit between Messrs. Biden and Xi in Woodside, California, in November 2023 and led to progress in critical areas 鈥� restoring military-to-military communications and launching talks on artificial intelligence safeguards, among other topics. In all, the two sides opened some 20 communications channels. More broadly, the diplomacy has reduced the risk of misunderstanding and miscalculation between the two nuclear powers. 鈥淲e鈥檙e going to keep at it,鈥� Mr. Sullivan said.
鈥淭alking has been restored, and relations have been stabilized to some extent,鈥� says Ambassador Huang Ping, the Chinese consul general in New York. 鈥淲e know we cannot afford confrontation or fighting, so we have to work together to manage differences,鈥� he says.
U.S. scores meeting with top Chinese general
One significant sign of headway in military-to-military ties was Mr. Sullivan鈥檚 unprecedented meeting Thursday with General Zhang, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, China鈥檚 top military body.
鈥淭here is no substitute for 鈥� being able to sit across the table鈥� from General Zhang and his team 鈥渢o hear 鈥� their perspective on critical issues 鈥� whether it鈥檚 cross-Strait relations or the South China Sea,鈥� said Mr. Sullivan. They agreed on a phone call between U.S. and Chinese theater commanders, a significant step to help operational-level commanders to avert or deal with any conflict.
Such contacts are vital, given the proximity at which Chinese and U.S. warplanes and navy ships conduct patrols at flash points such as the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.
Vessels belonging to China and the Philippines, a U.S. treaty ally, have clashed recently near disputed shoals in the South China Sea. In Beijing, Mr. Sullivan reiterated the U.S. 鈥渋ronclad commitment鈥� to honor its mutual defense treaty with the Philippines. But he also stressed that 鈥渘obody is looking for a crisis鈥� and encouraged direct talks between Manila and Beijing.
鈥淶hang Youxia is 鈥� a top-level military person within Xi Jinping鈥檚 circle and [U.S. officials] haven鈥檛 met with him before, so it鈥檚 very significant to have that first meeting,鈥� says Ms. Thornton.听
Fundamental differences remain
Both U.S. and Chinese officials acknowledge that the ongoing dialogues have not solved fundamental differences between them. Indeed, Mr. Xi stressed to Mr. Sullivan that China and the U.S. do not view the relationship the same way.
鈥淭he number one issue is to develop a right strategic perception,鈥� he said, according to a Chinese government summary of his remarks. When the U.S. and China engage, he said, 鈥渢hey need first and foremost to find a good answer to the overarching question: Are China and the United States rivals or partners?鈥�
Yet by committing to talks, Washington and Beijing have made headway in managing the relationship 鈥� both by avoiding misunderstandings and by anticipating potential problems before they arise.
The two sides 鈥渉ave a track record of trying to get ahead of periods that may add tensions and frictions,鈥� says Brian Hart, a fellow with the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. For example, he says, 鈥渢hey knew 2024 would be a tumultuous year given the [presidential] elections in Taiwan and the U.S.鈥�
China鈥檚 leaders 鈥渞ecognize that elections are sensitive periods,鈥� Mr. Sullivan says, and Vice President Kamala Harris supports high-level communications between Washington and Beijing as a way to responsibly manage the relationship.
The extent to which current dialogues would continue under a potential second Trump administration, though, is unclear, experts say. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e much more leery about dialogues and talking to the Chinese,鈥� says Ms. Thornton. If Mr. Trump is elected, 鈥淚 think you鈥檒l see some pressure to cut back on who is involved in communicating with China,鈥� she predicts.
One trend that is not likely to change is the revival of people-to-people exchanges between the U.S. and China. 鈥淭he lack of face-to-face engagement really creates trouble,鈥� says Ambassador Huang. 鈥淭he deficit of mutual understanding has gone so far, so we need to bring people together.鈥�
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